Future Hiring.........

[FlyBoeingJets]

...Fuel Hedging is a constant. We are currently hedging for the distant future as well as the current environment. For 2005 the un-hedged fuel is being hedged at various rates...So please, before I read it one more time on this board, if you don't understand hedges, do not comment on the subject.

Canyon,

The fuel hedges, as I understand them, are as I list below. For 2007 we have hedges for higher prices and lower percentage. Oddly, the further out we go the lower the price in the current market. Perhaps JetBlue and Airtran are working on 2008 and beyond hedges too.

Not exact--
2006 80% at $26
2007 60% at mid thirties
2008,09 20-40% in twenties to thirties

So when I say fuel hedges run out I mean the current awesome deal for 2005-2006 will be replaced with less of a good deal. I've heard new airplanes are not covered by hedging either, just current fleet.

Going forward airlines are likely to do more hedging 2007 and beyond. But I do hear no one will make a good deal with a near bankrupt carrier.

Eventually oil will come down a little, IMHO, and the financial value of the hedges will decrease even if oil stablizes in the 40's. Lots and lots of uncertainty on the value of these hedges.

But I do think they are the best thing since sliced bread

Please correct me if I am wrong.

 

[shagadelic]

I hate to thread creep again, but.....

DH2WN,

I haven't followed any of your previous posts, but when I read this thread I just couldn't believe a Southwest guy was typing this stuff. I looked at your previous posts and (with a sigh of relief) realized you weren't even on property yet. In fact, just two weeks ago you said:

20 million loss and with a great fuel hedge!! Makes me nervous that I'm about to be at the bottom of the senority list.

Then someone tells you we don't furlough and all of a sudden you are on here pounding your chest saying we will never furlough and we are the best place for pilots to work.

You haven't even begun class yet, but you are speaking, in essence, on behalf of Southwest pilots. I don't believe you really meant to sound like you came off sounding, but it was very cocky and somewhat condescending.

As a group we take pride in having some humility; and part of what keeps us doing what we are doing is the knowledge that we are definitely not invincible. If we lose that humility, I believe we lose that which differentiated us from all of the failed airlines in the past.

Just my two cents.

 

[DH2WN]

DH2WN,

I haven't followed any of your previous posts, but

Read the previous posts... Put it in the proper context and you will understand it's not meant to be condesending. I'm quoting history in the attempt to predict the future for a student pilot.

 

[DH2WN]

DH2WN,

Then someone tells you we don't furlough and all of a sudden you are on here pounding your chest saying we will never furlough and we are the best place for pilots to work.

I never said SWA doesn't furlough. That's someone else not reading the posts either. Again, looking at history in an attempt to predict the future. It is the best place for pilots to work in the sense that furloughs haven't been apart of the equation. Noone can predict the future but you can look at history and hope for the best.

Not meant to be cocky or condesending what so ever.

 

[DH2WN]

I looked at your previous posts and (with a sigh of relief) realized you weren't even on property yet.

Sigh of relief? I think everyone should be an extreem cheerleader for where they work and what they do. I never meant to say other places are not good to work for but I believe SWA is clearly the best. Others can disagree but it's my opinion.

 

[Ty Webb]

The clown going to SWA is probably in for a rude awakening when his fellow employees tell him to "simma down, clown, you're an embarassment to us all".

Most pilots know better than to make the type of broad-sweeping statements he has been blathering here . . . . because history has a way of making us humble.

SWA is a great airline, to be sure, but you have to be a real horse's ass to think it's OK to say to someone that it's alright if their carrier goes belly-up because "they can always be a SWA newhire". I'm sure a former TWA International Wide-body Captain relishes the thought of lifting the gear somwhere over Oklahoma for a consumate aviator such as yourself. What are you gonna do for an encore? Tell the USAirways guys on the crew van how they can come work at SWA, too?

And, FWIW, I think that Bob Crandall was probably a smarter airline CEO than Herb, except he was hired into a company that had a fifty year history to deal with, instead of starting from scratch.

Anyway, back to the question about airlines- AirTran plans to double in size in the next four to five years, and continues to hire 200-250 per year. Upgrade looks like it may be back down to 2.5 yrs. Contract is up for negotiation. We're doing OK, but the next two to three years in this industry are going to be interesting for all concerned. Buckle up, folks, it may get even bumpier ahead.

 

[DH2WN]

Obviously my attempt at explaining myself isn't working. I feel SWA is great and I think everyone else would agree if they had the experience I have had in the last few months. Maybe not. It's my opinion. It's not cocky or meant to slight other carriers. All I want are good things for SWA and will do my best when I get there to see it move forward.

If I have offended anyone during this I apoligize and it was not intentional.

To the student pilot who was probably just hoping for a simple answer: You can see it's a quite complicated industry but very rewarding with some luck.


Good luck to all...

 

[shagadelic]

DH2WN
My apologies, you did not say we will never furlough. But you must admit the tone of your post was: Go anywhere but SWA, and you will get furloughed.

History does bear that out, but like chase said, that does not guarantee how the future will play out. However, I agree it is an important consideration for one considering this career.

You can make that point, and state the facts, without coming here and saying "SWA is the best place for pilots." I think that is what set everyone off. It implies those who chose different paths are "not" at the best place. If you must make a statement like that, how about a PM instead?

 

[DH2WN]

DH2WN
My apologies, you did not say we will never furlough. But you must admit the tone of your post was: Go anywhere but SWA, and you will get furloughed.

History does bear that out, but like chase said, that does not guarantee how the future will play out. However, I agree it is an important consideration for one considering this career.

You can make that point, and state the facts, without coming here and saying "SWA is the best place for pilots." I think that is what set everyone off. It implies those who chose different paths are "not" at the best place. If you must make a statement like that, how about a PM instead?

Maybe the fact that I am being furloughed in 9 days is attributable to my tone. Sorry if I came off that way. Not intentional.

 

[canyonblue]

Canyon,
The fuel hedges, as I understand them, .............Please correct me if I am wrong.

No way man, you DO understand them. It's the others that can't grasp the concept, only their own ignorance towards it.

 

[canyonblue]

Maybe the fact that I am being furloughed in 9 days is attributable to my tone. Sorry if I came off that way. Not intentional.

Don't worry about the gallery here, speak your own mind. Keep up the positive attitude about SWA, that's one of the things that got you hired. Always remember that everyone on this board outside of a Southwest pilot would love to see us lose money and fall on our a$$. They are NOT your friends, nor will they ever be. They have tried to put us under since day one, and will not quit trying. I have friends at other airlines, but I don't have other airlines for friends.

 

[General Lee]

You're just an angry bitter person, aren't you? In the attempt to have an intelligent debate with you I realized two things:

1. When someone responds to your comments you don't read them. You just continue on with your minutia assumptions.

2. You are definitely a glass half full person.

Good luck to you...

What? I am not bitter, I just don't want what you want. Is that wrong? You and your posts are ridiculous. I am pro-DL, no doubt there, but I don't say it is the ONLY AIRLINE EVERYONE SHOULD EVER FLY FOR AND THE REST SHOULD ALL GO DOWN IN FLAMES...... Give me a break. You pretty much stated that you wished oil would push $100 a barrel and every otehr airline should liquidate and Southwest would thrive on its own. That is crazy. Is there a psych exam for Southwest? You would have failed one.

Look, everyone on here is extremely happy that you are happy. It is great you are where you want to be. Wonderful. And, I think it is great that you like your airline. I like my airline too. But, then you get kinda crazy wishing misfortune on others. I read all of your responses, and my current conclusion is that YOU ARE NUTS. (No pun intended with regards to Herb's book) Just tone it down a bit and you will do just fine on this board.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Dear DH2WN,

While I appreciate your enthusiasm for SWA the reality in the airline business is having one's family and income disrupted is slightly more traumatic than the play you are giving it when you imply that moving from a bankrupt/failed/furloughed position to Southwest is rather simple. I'm sure you realize it is far more complex than that & that while I agree SWA will be growing over the years it has no capacity or capability to take in every pilot who applies, many of whom are those that you described + many others. Therefore the tone of your message appears to some that it is much easier to make the transition & therefore "join the winning team".

SWA isn't for everyone from a passenger standpoint & employment standpoint. I'm sure you realize that but dangling the prospect of an easily acquired job here isn't realistic, I'm sure you would agree....maybe not your intent but postings on public forums come off slightly different than one's intent many times.

As for our future, I've said it before, it is bright but by no means is it guaranteed. While our growth maybe partially dependent on what other carriers do, Southwest has never relied on decisions by other carriers to be the overriding factor in its direction overall....it has certainly responded to weaknesses in the market but some of your comments may come across that SWA's only business model is based upon failures (this equates to personal stories that are replayed on boards like this....there's a human side to it that others are asking you to consider ) of other carriers....we'll respond to that if it occurs but I agree with you, none of us SWA wish financial discomfort on our fellow airline employees.......we've just been fortunate at SWA to never to have had to suffer through those times & I'm sure you're grateful for that fact as much as I & the other 32,000 employees.

General Lee,

To move on to the topic of the thread....do you know if ASA & Comair are still hiring? How many DAL folks are still furloughed & has the recall that was court ordered made any difference...an update on that might be useful for everyone to see...thanks...thanks for your patience!!!!

Chase,

Thank you for your insight. Your mature words are needed with this young man.

Anyway, we still have 628 furloughs on the street, and recalls are continuing. The next class is in May I believe and 12 people were given recall notices yesterday, and I think the junior person is now tk+560 (or 561 from the bottom). Many people are either bypassing or have gotten hired elsewhere. ASA and Comair are still hiring from what I know, and some of the furloughed DL pilots have gone to ASA, not many going to Comair if at all. We are expecting a large retirement chunk on May 1st due to the raising Gatt rate and pension concerns. The difference in lump sum on May 1st versus June 1st could be as high as $50,000 (in one month), so many Captains are reviewing their retirement options. That money difference could do a lot for you with a good mutual fund. I have heard 150-200 Captains possibly leaving on May 1st alone. That would speed up the recalls no doubt.


That's all I have. Take care.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Ty Webb]

Always remember that everyone on this board outside of a Southwest pilot would love to see us lose money and fall on our axx. They are NOT your friends, nor will they ever be.

Wow . . . . speaking of "axx", way to show yours, buddy.


Last I heard, a diagnosis of "paranoia" was cause to lose your medical . . . . and your post reeks of it.


.

 

[canyonblue]

Oh please Ty, You really care about Southwest and it's pilots. You WORRY about us taxing too fast, you WORRY about us spending too much money for the gates in MDW. We don't need you to spend so much time worrying about us, you could better put that to use worrying about your own company. I'm not paranoid, just realistic about how other pilots feel about each other's airlines. I always say hi to another pilot I see in the terminal, but I could care less about his airline. Maybe if you had been an athlete in school instead of the ones that "hated" the jocks, you would understand the word "competition", and understand that a Delta pilot does not hate you but want's to beat AirTran like it owes it money. You may be the one that is paranoid, about Southwest.

 

[Ty Webb]

Oh please Ty, You really care about Southwest and it's pilots.

Actually, three of my best friends are at SWA, and, yes, I do care about my fellow pilots. Sorry it is a concept you obviously don't understand.

I'm not paranoid, just realistic about how other pilots feel about each other's airlines.

Funny- I don't feel like that about other airlines. I really do wish the best for everyone in this industry. I guess that's the difference between me and you.

Maybe if you had been an athlete in school instead of the ones that "hated" the jocks, you would understand the word "competition".

I am sure many of my fellow pilots on this board who know me would get a good chuckle at this one. What a buffoon.

Again- Canyon Blue- Way to show your ass. Thanks for letting the rest of us know how you feel. Once you let the crap out of the bag, there isn't any "putting it back in".

AMF

 

[DH2WN]

What? I am not bitter, I just don't want what you want. Is that wrong? You and your posts are ridiculous. I am pro-DL, no doubt there, but I don't say it is the ONLY AIRLINE EVERYONE SHOULD EVER FLY FOR AND THE REST SHOULD ALL GO DOWN IN FLAMES...... Give me a break. You pretty much stated that you wished oil would push $100 a barrel and every otehr airline should liquidate and Southwest would thrive on its own. That is crazy. Is there a psych exam for Southwest? You would have failed one.

Look, everyone on here is extremely happy that you are happy. It is great you are where you want to be. Wonderful. And, I think it is great that you like your airline. I like my airline too. But, then you get kinda crazy wishing misfortune on others. I read all of your responses, and my current conclusion is that YOU ARE NUTS. (No pun intended with regards to Herb's book) Just tone it down a bit and you will do just fine on this board.

I'm doing just fine by myself. If you would just read the posts you would understand. If pushing oil to $100 is what would keep SWA from furloughing anyone at the expense of other airlines than so be it. I don't wish ill will toward you or anyone but SWA employees are number 1 priority. I would rather see 10,000 Delta employees lose their job than 1 southwest employee. I'm sorry but that's business. If attacking US Air at their hubs and putting them under is what the SWA execs. is the best course of action for SW then I am behind them 110%. When there is no other recourse to help your own airline when fuel hedges run out then you have to hope it pushes higher and harms the competition before that hedge runs out. Fortunately, SW execs. don't allow their airline to be controlled by anything but themselves and they don't have to think like that. You hope things will work out for your own and not at the expense of others but business is business.

 

[General Lee]

I'm doing just fine by myself. If you would just read the posts you would understand. If pushing oil to $100 is what would keep SWA from furloughing anyone at the expense of other airlines than so be it. I don't wish ill will toward you or anyone but SWA employees are number 1 priority. I would rather see 10,000 Delta employees lose their job than 1 southwest employee. I'm sorry but that's business. If attacking US Air at their hubs and putting them under is what the SWA execs. is the best course of action for SW then I am behind them 110%. When there is no other recourse to help your own airline when fuel hedges run out then you have to hope it pushes higher and harms the competition before that hedge runs out. Fortunately, SW execs. don't allow their airline to be controlled by anything but themselves and they don't have to think like that. You hope things will work out for your own and not at the expense of others but business is business.

Seriously, you're not helping your cause. Just leave it alone and learn when to print something and when not to. It is great that you love your new airline. That is wonderful. But, you stated that you wanted oil to push $100 a barrel so that everyone else could parish, and that would leave Southwest alone. You are trying to twist that around now, and you still look bad. Let it go and go study some flows or something....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[aa73]

They have never furloughed a pilot in 32 years of service. How many pilots have the legacy carriers furloughed in that time? Thousands upon thousands. When the economic sine wave fluctuates up and down every 10 years the legacys furlough at the low point. About every 10 years. If you don't get hired in year one or two during the upswing you are out when it starts to downswing. Chalk it up to very poor executive foresight and planning.

It's not being cocky. It's factual and makes SWA a great place to work.

Sorry, have to disagree. SWA actually did furlough a few pilots, but they were imediately recalled after a few weeks... happened sometime in the 70s.

It is also a little known fact that SWA operated 727s for a short time in the 70s or 80s.

73

 

[aa73]

I think it will take American about 5 years to go through their furloughees, before they get to hire anyone new. Since they haven't called anyone back yet, who knows. The estimate is based on about 300/year and nearly half saying 'forget it, I'm not coming back.'

This is just a guess, I have no official information. But I wouldn't hold my breath (and I'm not)

AA will be hiring again between '08 and '10. Count on it.

73