k2774 said:
I hate to beat a dead horse, but I must ask. For the major airlines that survive(AA, UAL, DAL, etc), and with retirements, do you think that there will be any hiring in the next 10+ years.
I still have aspirations of working for a major passenger carrier.
G
Not a dead horse, but beaten by us into something beyond recognition for sure...
Big hiring is starting right now. Will likely be here for 2-4 years. Beyond that there are too many what ifs to make a prediction. Someone will be hiring past 2010, the question is who. I'm hoping its the likes of AA, DAL, SWA, UAL. I would not welcome some new super international airline 49% owned by Europeans.
I used to focus on retirement stats but that is only part of the equation. Retirements have hurt DAL much in the last 2 years.
Pilot contracts, and pensions, are getting squeezed and there is a move toward non-unionized pilot groups. Don't know if that is good or bad. Unions have proven themselves very inflexible when the times have demanded flexibility.
We have seen some visionary folks leave the likes of UAL in 2000 to start again at JetBlue. I talked to a few who were furloughed by AA in the 90's and started at SWA. They chose to stay at SWA when called back. They are doing very well.
Right now it looks like SWA is the best place to be. I agree it is very good and those crazy about SWA look brilliant. Those who interviewed 3 times and finally got on look brilliant too. I hope we continue to look so smart.
In the 1990's those crazy about DAL looked brilliant when they left/turned down FedEX, AA or UAL. In the 80's-'90s the UAL wannabes looked brilliant.
We have seen some leave SWA and FedEx after 1-5 years of seniority to start carreers at AA, DAL and UAL '95-'00. Some DAL folks were accepting call back when they left FedEx. Most of these are furloughed or wishing they made a different decision. Some hated the night schedule and were going to leave anyway.
Whatever the reason, it doesn't matter since the reasons change every cycle, PanAm, TWA, Braniff, Eastern and others aren't here anymore. They all looked really secure at one time. SWA looked shaky for awhile before it stabilized. That is why SWA history is so interesting. I still get asked if I think JetBlue will make it. My answer is it depends on people. Management, employees and competitors. Who knows if any airline will make it?
Something I've seen is folks moving rapidly out of the regionals into the majors with too little PIC time. Don't do that! I was in 737 type school with newly furloughed USAir guys. They were getting the type paid for by Pennsylvania. When we talked about SWA it came out only 1 of the 6 had enough PIC time to apply. It will help you get a corporate job if those turn out to be the best ones in years to come.