Further RJ Reductions.....

[eaglefly]

ALL regional airlines should fly turboprops for regional hub feed. Lower fuel consumption, good short field performance, and ability to carry 70 cheaper than 50 people. The majors should go back to flying short haul flights on 100 seat aircraft perhaps the larger EMB190 series. That what put the routing system back into perspective, take the children out of the jets, provide better service on those longer routes that RJs fly, reduce flights and ease the congestion at the problematic hubs. It will also keep the flying at the major level.

If only you could find someone stupid enough to put your infantile plan of action to work. It would have a better chance if you'd also include a co-plan to reduce excessively bloated mainline pilot compensation and inefficient work rules.

Remember, we've got to trim the gristle and fat from the lazy old cows of the industry just as much as putting the children back in their place.

 

[General Lee]

If only you could find someone stupid enough to put your infantile plan of action to work. It would have a better chance if you'd also include a co-plan to reduce excessively bloated mainline pilot compensation and inefficient work rules.

Remember, we've got to trim the gristle and fat from the lazy old cows of the industry just as much as putting the children back in their place.

Hopefully all Majors will trim their 50 and less seaters a lot. They are not profitable at all, and they should be parked. Some large props may be useful thanks to less gas used, like the Dash-8-400. I am sure you will understand Eaglefly. NWA is still hiring, go for it. Or, a SJU transfer could be in order for you. That NDB approach to Beef Island would be fun for you.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Max Powers]

isn't that why we have the FDIC?

You are such a Tool bag.......Do you understand the difference between investment banking and Mom and pop savings account banking??????

 

[N2264J]

Re: Further RJ Reductions...

I can not take the credit for finding this article, but another board had it and it is the best current commentary on oil I've read.

Supply is also inelastic—it takes a long time to do the exploration, drilling, and refining necessary to boost production in response to higher prices. This inelasticity of demand and supply means that petroleum prices are very sensitive to relatively small changes in either. This means that prices can fall as steeply has they rose.

Not familiar with the term "Peak oil" yet? This movie will make you crap your pants.

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

 

[imlars]

The "traditional" view (British Petroleum). ​

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]THE OIL RESERVE FALLACY[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Proven reserves are not [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]a measure of future supply [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]“We are looking at more than four and a half trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil. That number translates into 140 years of oil at current rates of consumption, or to put it anther way, the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional oil potential. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"That fact alone should discredit the argument that peak oil is imminent and put our minds at ease concerning future petrol supplies.” [/FONT]

 

[STL717]

Boyd's thoughts gets picked up by the media

Report: Fuel Makes Many Planes Obsolete
Thursday March 20, 10:41 am ET
By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer

High Fuel Prices Makes Many Smaller Planes "Economically Obsolete," According to New Study

NEW YORK (AP) -- Surging fuel prices have rendered many of the world's airliners too expensive to operate, making them "economically obsolete," according to a study Thursday by an aviation consulting firm.

Most at risk are smaller regional jets, especially those with fewer than 50 seats, that are used by carriers to connect smaller airports to larger hubs, according to the forecast by The Boyd Group in Evergreen, Colo.

More than half of the existing regional jets in service in the U.S. -- over 900 aircraft -- will be retired over the next five years, the report said.

"Contrary to other forecasts that predict 'thousands' of new (regional jets), the hard fact is that there are no such next-generation airliners on the drawing board. The (regional jet) era is over," the firm said in a statement.

Before markets opened Thursday, analysts at UBS and Lehman Brothers cut their earnings estimates and lowered ratings on a number of U.S. carriers because of concerns over record-high fuel costs and a possible recession.

Industry executives have been exploring acquisitions and other initiatives to restructure the U.S. airline market, partly in response to rising fuel costs, which now account for many carriers' biggest expense. But the report warns that "mergers won't change the fact that existing fleets are incompatible with $110 oil prices."

Crude prices first topped $110 a barrel last week but have since eased. Light, sweet crude for May delivery dropped $3.14 to $99.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday morning.

Jet fuel, like gasoline, has grown more expensive with crude's ascent. Last week, spot jet fuel prices jumped to a new record of $3.48 a gallon, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.

Major carriers such as AMR Corp.'s American Airlines and UAL Corp.'s United Airlines have little room to maneuver, the report suggests, because a large gap exists between the size of their inefficient regional jets and the bigger, more economical planes in their fleets.

Pulling low-mileage planes out of service means demand for more efficient planes is likely to spike between this year and 2017, the period covered by the report. About 40 percent of the more than 14,000 planes expected to be delivered over the decade will be medium-range planes with 75 to 125 seats, the report predicts.

That is good news for Brazil's Embraer, the only aircraft maker offering a mainline model of that size, but it also creates an opening for new manufacturers, the firm noted.

Embraer, or Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, is the world's fourth-largest commercial aircraft maker, after Boeing Co., Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co., and Canada's Bombardier Inc. Its jets are used by JetBlue Airways Corp., ACE Aviation Holdings Inc.'s Air Canada, and some U.S. regional airlines.

The report also noted that a large backlog and delays in the introduction of Boeing's new 787 are creating a strong market for the Airbus A350. That plane, which was redesigned to better compete with the 787, is scheduled to enter commercial service in 2013.

It is unclear when the 787 will begin flying. The head of a major aircraft leasing company that has 74 of the new planes on order said this week that he expects the first 787 flight won't occur until the fall, and that delivery is unlikely to begin before the end of the third quarter of 2009.

 

[GenericPilot]

turboprops for the future

Now that we have baited the american public into flying everywhere with the nice regional jets, you are going to see the move back to turboprops.

Safety campaigns (less likely to die in a turboprop crash-whether true or untrue), talk of more comfortable seating on a large turboprop (true for dash 8s), and a cheaper airline ticket will all be discussed.

Personally, I liked the days of riding the Jetstream 32 for a 1.0-1.7 to reach a hub. Took less time to board, less people to listen to, and less time to get off the plane. I don't need a jetway, just a cheap ride.

Pay...nobody's making any money in the airline business except for a small minority with the education, political skills, contacts, and good flying ability (i.e guys firmly established at the majors). Even those guys get furloughed every so often.

Kids in the cockpit..I used to be one of those kids. However, it was a military aircraft. We weren't nearly as safe as the airlines.

I'll be glad to see the last RJ leave for India or China where fuel is cheaper. Look to Europe to predict our future.

**If you really love flying, get a non-flying job and buy a plane. You'll have more fun.

 

[DTW320]

Personally, I liked the days of riding the Jetstream 32 for a 1.0-1.7 to reach a hub. Took less time to board, less people to listen to, and less time to get off the plane. I don't need a jetway, just a cheap ride.

Plus, you could open the curtain to the cockpit and ask the Captain when you were gonna get there.....or where the toilet was.

 

[IronCityBlue]

While there is and will be a lot of heat placed on the 50 seat RJ market and they WILL be reduced significantly, there is a shift going on towards larger RJ's. That's what has to stop. If airlines want to fly anything over 50 seats, it needs to be flown by mainline pilots on the seniority list, even if its at a current market based compensation level. Mainline pilots need to get 100% of all 51 seat and up jet jobs back on their seniority list as priority number 1, far ahead of pay rates and DC concerns today. If more and more large RJ's are outsourced, that will drag down all narrowbody rates, which will drag down widebody rates. Ironically, if pilots do get tough with the outsourcing issue, management will just offer them a widebody cookie to get them to sign off on more. We worry about paycheck to paycheck and what next year's pay table is going to look like. Management is on the 20 year plan to eliminate our entire profession by making it an ACMI outsource, lowest bidder, self eroding mockery of its former self. And they are doing it with our permission. Shame on us for that.

 

[JoeMerchant]

While there is and will be a lot of heat placed on the 50 seat RJ market and they WILL be reduced significantly, there is a shift going on towards larger RJ's. That's what has to stop. If airlines want to fly anything over 50 seats, it needs to be flown by mainline pilots on the seniority list, even if its at a current market based compensation level. Mainline pilots need to get 100% of all 51 seat and up jet jobs back on their seniority list as priority number 1, far ahead of pay rates and DC concerns today. If more and more large RJ's are outsourced, that will drag down all narrowbody rates, which will drag down widebody rates. Ironically, if pilots do get tough with the outsourcing issue, management will just offer them a widebody cookie to get them to sign off on more. We worry about paycheck to paycheck and what next year's pay table is going to look like. Management is on the 20 year plan to eliminate our entire profession by making it an ACMI outsource, lowest bidder, self eroding mockery of its former self. And they are doing it with our permission. Shame on us for that.

.....and in your grand plan what do you do with those of us who decided to just stay and fly these larger RJs for good money and good schedules.....Do you take us with the planes....or is just "tough luck"....If it is the later....expect yet another food fight in this dysfunctional family we call "ALPA".....

 

[800Dog]

.....and in your grand plan what do you do with those of us who decided to just stay and fly these larger RJs for good money and good schedules.....Do you take us with the planes....or is just "tough luck"....If it is the later....expect yet another food fight in this dysfunctional family we call "ALPA".....

You knew the deal when you went to work for a commuter that did contract flying for a major. I had no expectations of flying anything larger than 50 seats when I was hired by my former airline. We all make choices.

 

[JoeMerchant]

You knew the deal when you went to work for a commuter that did contract flying for a major. I had no expectations of flying anything larger than 50 seats when I was hired by my former airline. We all make choices.

Actually ASA has flown jets up to 100 seats.....

In addition, when I hired on ASA didn't even operate 50 seat jets....therefor according to YOUR logic I don't even have a "right" to that flying....correct?

Therefor if that is the position of MY union.....then bring me another can of gas and a lighter....It is time to get rid of ALPA......

You guys just don't get it do ya.....Are you not learning anything from all of this.....We can either fight this separately or together....It looks like you guys want separate....So be it....but you may not like that either.....

 

[jke406]

.....and in your grand plan what do you do with those of us who decided to just stay and fly these larger RJs for good money and good schedules.....

So let me get this straight...you made a decision based on what was best for you (more money and a better schedule) by staying at your regional.

Now you want guys at another company (that you made a choice not to work for) to give up what's best for them, so you can get what's best for you?

sorry, that's not the way it works. you made your decision and you'll have to live with the consequences.

but your sense of entitlement is amusing.

 

[AA717driver]

Joe--So you made a decision at one time in your career and circumstances changed later and now it doesn't look so good.

I passed on an interview at FedEx in the early 90's. Where do I go to collect my mulligan for passing on a good deal? A SWA Capt. offered to walk my resume in back in '98. I'd be a 737 CA right now. Oops. Where's my compensation?

Those who elected to stay at a regional rolled the dice. Some people choose to stay at ATA. What happens if they just get shut down? Do they try to take down the rest of the industry?

If you're a lifer at a regional, I suggest you urge your MEC to try to cut a deal with an affiliated major to get a number. I wouldn't be too choosy given the state of the industry, though. TC

 

[IronCityBlue]

.....and in your grand plan what do you do with those of us who decided to just stay and fly these larger RJs for good money and good schedules.....Do you take us with the planes....or is just "tough luck"....If it is the later....expect yet another food fight in this dysfunctional family we call "ALPA".....

I believe that the pilots should be taken. ASA pilots are competent professionals and first class aviators. Flying jets in and out of busy hubs all day is airline pilot flying, period.

But the question is how would those pilots be taken. Personally, here's my view if you're talking ASA and Delta, which is the prevailing example in this discussion:

Staple all ASA pilots to the bottom of the Delta pilot's seniority list for equipment bidding.

ASA pilots keep their present status quo for the RJ flying they do.

All ASA pilots would get seniority based opportunities to 100% of all Delta new hire positions. If exercised, they would start over as a year 1 pilot at year 1 pay and seniority at Delta. If they chose to stay, they would keep all they have earned for the equipment they fly.

All pilots would keep DOH for furlough considerations, and if either side of the company needed to furlough, they would furlough from the bottom of either respective list. Although there would be one list, there would be a dividing line in that list. The outsource experiment abortion is too big and too ugly to ever be solved by one sweeping final solution at this point. A dividing line in one contract is the only way for it to ever happen.

All new hires for Delta or ASA would go to the bottom of ASA's list. They would then get their chance to transition to the Delta side of the line when they could hold it, if they chose to hold it.

Any Delta pilot that was furloughed would automatically be entitled to go back to the bottom of the ASA list, keeping their Delta longevity for pay but only bidding what they could hold at ASA as a new hire.

In short, not officially a B scale, but a workable solution that recognises the realities of our current situation, especially frst admitting there is a problem.

Later in subsequent contracts, efforts could be made to transition to a seamless single seniority list. In no case should an ASA pilot ever be able to use their ASA seniority to bid ahead of any Delta pilot in planes the ASA pilot didn't otherwise have the opportunity to fly for the company in question.

Is that the only workable solution, or will 100% of everyone be happy about it? Of course not. Another solution is for the Delta pilots to take back 90, then 70, then 50 seat flying as they are able to bargain for it. That would probably be more costly for them short term of course.

But no matter what happens, or doesn't happen, you have to first acknowledge that you have no leverage whatsoever to claim anything othet than your share of whatever flying ASA happens to offer you today. You will have to first committ to a staple, and THEN worry about how to work out the details, not the other way around, as was previouslly attempted by the PID------>RJDC.

Or you could embrace the status quo, comfortable that your ASA seniority will afford you pay and QOL and one more market cycle of furlough protection. But next cycle, will ASA have any flying to offer you? Is that even up to ASA? Will SkyWest give ASA some of UNited's or Delta's flying next time around? Will Delta give SkyWest Delta's flying next time around? Are those 70 and 90 seater opportunities "yours"? You sure about that?