Fallout from an age 60-Rule change

[capt_zman]

Spooky, please spare us with your condascending know-it-all attitude. Not all of us "young guys" are young and dumb.

As always, it comes down to the have and have nots. From my point of view, the age 65 thing is a credible threat to not just an upgrade, but to my job. What happens to me and my family? Do I join the list of furloughed guys from (pick an airline) too?

It's pretty obvious that labor costs, whether right or wrong, is a focal point at every airline right now. If we add 5 more years to the top wage scale of the cost structure, what are the consequences in doing so? Let's look a simple cost analysis at my airline regarding retirements at 60 vs. 65:

5 year retirement outlook:
2005 = 69
2006 = 148
2007 = 159
2008 = 155
2009 = 134
Total = 665

Let's assume that 80% are widebody captains (WC) and 20% are narrow body captains (NC). We'll also assume that each captain has a 75 hr per month guarantee. 665 * .80 = 532 WC and 133 NC. We'll also assume that each captain is at the 15 year top of pay scale, so each WC currently makes $206.24 /hr and NC $177.78 /hr.

((75 hrs*206.24)*12 mos)*532 = $98,747,712 per year in salary.
((75 hrs*177.78)*12 mos)*133 = $21,280,266 per year in salary.

So each year it costs my airline $120,027,978 extra in labor costs, which would equate to $600,139,890 over a 5 year period. Also notice that this is just salary, not including insurance, medical costs, or anything else for that matter.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that even the most profitable airlines will have a difficult time swallowing an extra $120 million in costs per year and over $600 million over 5 years, especially since these costs currently aren't budgeted. It also doesn't take much intelligence to figure out exactly where the company will seek relief for such costs, just ask some of the other airlines.

So while you and spooky go out and "hit some balls" and not worry about what's going to happen to anyone other than you, you can bet your last dollar that I'm going to exhaust every possible option to make sure this doesn't happen. The airline industry has been victimized by mismanagement for decades, let's not aid in flipping the switch on the rest of the us.

 

[Flopgut]

Ya, your right. I'm done.

Go ahead and be done. I suggest you make a copy of this thread and look at it again in your later years. See if it is something you are proud of then.

As hard as things have been in your past you should be cognizant of where you are now and let it pass to others as well someday. Adversity not unlike what you have endured has been a part of my past too. But I realize that I'm still very lucky and concerned about others getting their fair share. I think you, and this industry's overall past, kind of typify your generation. The generation that just "took". Did the most damage to this industry and squeezed everything out of it you could. And if you get your way, you will take everything it will ever have. Because I don't believe you really want to leave at 62, 63 or 65. You want to leave when their is nothing else left. We will change the age once and you will want it changed again. You will have all the same reasons but then you will want to go at 70.

Our discussion notwithstanding, you're going to leave at 60 under current conditions. I will be fighting to keep it that way.

 

[Spooky 1]

Spooky, please spare us with your condascending know-it-all attitude. Not all of us "young guys" are young and dumb.

As always, it comes down to the have and have nots. From my point of view, the age 65 thing is a credible threat to not just an upgrade, but to my job. What happens to me and my family? Do I join the list of furloughed guys from (pick an airline) too?

It's pretty obvious that labor costs, whether right or wrong, is a focal point at every airline right now. If we add 5 more years to the top wage scale of the cost structure, what are the consequences in doing so? Let's look a simple cost analysis at my airline regarding retirements at 60 vs. 65:

5 year retirement outlook:
2005 = 69
2006 = 148
2007 = 159
2008 = 155
2009 = 134
Total = 665

Let's assume that 80% are widebody captains (WC) and 20% are narrow body captains (NC). We'll also assume that each captain has a 75 hr per month guarantee. 665 * .80 = 532 WC and 133 NC. We'll also assume that each captain is at the 15 year top of pay scale, so each WC currently makes $206.24 /hr and NC $177.78 /hr.

((75 hrs*206.24)*12 mos)*532 = $98,747,712 per year in salary.
((75 hrs*177.78)*12 mos)*133 = $21,280,266 per year in salary.

So each year it costs my airline $120,027,978 extra in labor costs, which would equate to $600,139,890 over a 5 year period. Also notice that this is just salary, not including insurance, medical costs, or anything else for that matter.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that even the most profitable airlines will have a difficult time swallowing an extra $120 million in costs per year and over $600 million over 5 years, especially since these costs currently aren't budgeted. It also doesn't take much intelligence to figure out exactly where the company will seek relief for such costs, just ask some of the other airlines.

So while you and spooky go out and "hit some balls" and not worry about what's going to happen to anyone other than you, you can bet your last dollar that I'm going to exhaust every possible option to make sure this doesn't happen. The airline industry has been victimized by mismanagement for decades, let's not aid in flipping the switch on the rest of the us.

Zman, calm down. Looks like you have a very strong corporate background and I would also guess you are a fairly new guy at FedEx. Congatulations. Would you also suggest that all corporate pilots retire at age 60? just wondering? And by the way, I don't know it all and I am finding out every day just how little I really know about this business called avaition.

 

[Boeingman]

Flopgut. You can knock off this generation barrier crap anytime now. Reading your posts reminds me of some folks who are very opportunistic in their views and opinions. For many like myself I view the opportunists mentality just like a scab mentality.

Incidently those in your "generation" had a large part in negotiating our wonderful contract. Those in your generation willingly pay for training and jobs. Those in "your" generation willingly work for poverty wages with a sense of entitlement and SJS abound. I don't recall that happening years ago.

I would think looking back on history those in "my" generation did more to advance pay benefits and working conditions than many coming aboard today. In fact if we hadn't had so many of "your" generation prostituting themselves perhaps management wouldn't of run over all of us with a steamroller knowing no matter what and for how little they will have warm asses to fill the seats.

BTW, before you continue any tirade I don't care one way or another what happens to the age 60 deal. Makes no differnce to me financially or professionally.

 

[Jim Smyth]

Your numbers are kinda off IMO in reguards to cost if the age goes to 65, at least at our airline.

I am currently at the highest pay rate for my company, 12+ year Captain pay. That 12+ pay rate number doesnt change for me the rest of my career whether the age stays at 60 or goes to 65. When I retire they dont replace me with a new hire. They replace me with the most senior copilot which is about a 7 year guy right now at SWA. So you take his pay ($104.00) verse mine ($167.00) and its about a third more pay for him since our senior copilots pay scale is about 66 percent of Captains pay and I am assuming this is pretty standard in the industry. Thats a $63.00 difference. Then you bring on the new hire ($44.00) and compare that to the senior FO ($104.00) that just swapped seats and you have another spread. ($60.00) So its not that big of a difference in the first few years that you make it out to be. $63.00 for when I leave and get replaced by the senior copilot compared to $60.00 for the new hire and the senior copilot. YMMV

 

[Jim Smyth]

Our discussion notwithstanding, you're going to leave at 60 under current conditions. I will be fighting to keep it that way.

Good luck, I will also keep fighting to change it!

 

[Flopgut]

Flopgut. You can knock off this generation barrier crap anytime now. Reading your posts reminds me of some folks who are very opportunistic in their views and opinions. For many like myself I view the opportunists mentality just like a scab mentality.

Incidently those in your "generation" had a large part in negotiating our wonderful contract. Those in your generation willingly pay for training and jobs. Those in "your" generation willingly work for poverty wages with a sense of entitlement and SJS abound. I don't recall that happening years ago.

I would think looking back on history those in "my" generation did more to advance pay benefits and working conditions than many coming aboard today. In fact if we hadn't had so many of "your" generation prostituting themselves perhaps management wouldn't of run over all of us with a steamroller knowing no matter what and for how little they will have warm asses to fill the seats.

BTW, before you continue any tirade I don't care one way or another what happens to the age 60 deal. Makes no differnce to me financially or professionally.

Fair enough. I'm boring the sh1t out of myself as well. I also loath PFT. However, I don't think anyone from my generation thought that one up. I agree, plenty of pilots have engaged in it from my generation. I think we will fix that. What does SJS mean?

Regarding the "scab mentality" assertion: I am a worker in a "shop" with a senority system. There is a contingent of workers who want to short circuit my proper and established seniority progression by means of something outside the collective bargaining agreement. What would you term this mentality?

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Fascinating Jim, you have thought of everything. I am guessing you are very fastidious and probably an allright person to fly with. (I am guessing too that I would go home from a trip with you exhausted from lectures on FMC technique and the like) I am certain you have exceeded my loftiest goals for myself in almost all aspects of personal and professional life (health, $, career progression, retirement) so don't take this as condescending. I think you personify the selfishness of this issue on the part of your pilot demographic. You indicate as much when you characterize SWAPA contract negotiation. Sure sec 6 is going to be a hard one to improve on for your group. Other SWA types, FOs to be correct, have theorized possible wage cuts in the future. And we know how work ethic is such a core value so don't look for any "soft time" type QOL extras, which have actually been denuded entirely from the passenger flying business. No, for sure this business has changed and it may even effect pilots' careers at SWA, yet you have no apprehension toward making a claim on five extra years at the top for yourself. A "bonus". Don't really need it, but it sure would be nice. The generation behind you will have to work as hard or harder for increasingly less in their careers and your solution to that is letting them work longer? Wow, you're a nice guy. Additionally, this claim that your health insurance issue is the tipping point really grates on me. You can find another job! If you retirement age pilots are so darn experienced and capable then it should be a good one. Matter of fact, if you can get yourself hired at Netjets, I believe they have comprehensive health benefits that are free! So you can keep that young wife of yours, and yourself, fit as a fiddle! That way while you are both out mountain biking and basking in the wealth and health of airline pilot retirement monies coupled with an exciting new career endeavor, you can think of how great the UAL furloughee is going to feel finally getting recalled because pilots retire at 60. Finally being able to get ulcers, chronic back pain, or other injuries treated because they have regular insurance now as a backstop to financial ruin. An artificially aged and tired spouse and kids can all get re-aclimated to life with health care like you have always had. You have a cute little chilling scenario where a health problem post age 60 wipes out your retirement monies. Scary to be sure, but let me ask you this: is that sort of thing any less scary for someone younger and furloughed without insurance? Please don't say its going to be less a problem for them because they have more time left to work and can make it up. This could be a sick child, are you going to tell me they can just have another? It follows your logic!

We have a somewhat "sinking ship" here Jim, do the "women and children" get the lifeboats, or do you need one just for you?

:beer:

That was a thing of beauty Flopgut!

BBB

 

[SWA/FO]

Other SWA types, FOs to be correct, have theorized possible wage cuts in the future.

NOT this FO.... Did you read any of the above posts? Maybe a probationary newhire from UAL thinks we will be cutting pay....But I think not (in my OPINION.)

~THE SWA/FO

 

[K. Marx]

People on here are understandably very wrapped up in how this will affect their specific career. But the real issue is safety and making it to retirement without a violation. Iam sure their will be all kinds of posts about exceptions to the rule, but that is all they are. Just go through any aircraft transition class with people in their late 50's and you will be even more convinced it will hurt safety. Most pilots toward the end of their career will admit it is much harder for them to learn anything new. But they don't seem to recognize their skill in the aircraft is also slipping (even tough it is obvious when they can barely stay awake, or unable to stay awake on all nighters). I have flown with numerous older ca's that say they want to go past 60 because they are as sharp as they ever were. I think they actually believe it. If there truly is no difference then 64 yr olds should be able to fly with 64 yr olds. Clearly their is some sort of acknowledgment their that there is an issue with older pilots. Funny thing is they wouldn't be able to fly with other 60+'s but could still fly with newhires (and even be checkairmen?). Great combination there, old guy who can't hardly fly anymore with a new guy that is unlikely to question him. One thing is for certain though, my workload is much higher when I am flying with a 58yr old with many thousands of hours in the plane than with a 48 yr old with 100 hrs in the plane. I believe the older guys just can't or refuse to see that they are slipping. It seems to be a pretty steep slide from around 55 to 60 in my experience. Can't wait to see how much of one it is from 60-65. This may not be pc, but it is how just about every fo and even most Captains I know feel after years of flying with different age groups. Most people 64 can't even drive anymore, though they also don't realize it. This is just an accident looking for a place to happen.