atpcliff
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 4,260
As for the future, you'd think something would have to give. But it won't. As long as nobody is ordering narrowbody aircraft, majors will get smaller as regionals will grow. As retirements are starting up again, majors are just parking aircraft. No biggie, nobody else is getting furloughed, in the minds of ALPA. Relaxing scope is fine, the majors aren't growing or full-replacing aging aircraft anyway (1:1). Let the regionals screw with everything. Set the schedule and hold the airline instead of the pilots accountable. If we all thought the regional lifestyle was nomadic before, just wait. We've seen the start of merger/acquisitions at the regional. Sometimes the best will get paired with the worst. Sometimes the worst will get a windfall.
Bottom line is that many more regional pilots will be fighting for a continuously smaller major airline job opportunity. The job shortage will be at the regional level, there will never be a shortage at a major from here out.
You are restricting your view to the US, and even so it is VERY pessimistic. Luckily for us, pilots and airlines are a GLOBAL phenomenon. If Emirates hires a US pilot, then one less US pilot is available to hire by UAL/AA/DAL, etc. The "Majors" are not parking aircraft. Emirates, Qatar, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, KAL, Cathay, ALL the Chinese airlines, etc., etc. are ADDING aircraft at a very high rate.
Just talked to some guys who said they knew people at Emirates, and the EK guy said by 2014 EK will NOT be able to staff the -777, no matter what they do...it is already too late to solve their manning problems on that airframe. So, even if the US job market does not improve significantly on its own, it won't matter, as overseas airlines will suck up a LOT of US pilots, creating a shortage here in the US.
cliff
RMS