Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[bizicmo]

No comment.

We just created a 20,000 year timeline for a pilot shortage, don't think its unreasonable to stretch the reality of Star Wars.

 

[Rerouted]

I see things changing down at the bottom of the food chain. I bailed out of the regionals 6 years ago because I was hardly making enough to survive. I manage a flight school now and went from getting 50 cfi resumes every time I placed an ad to getting 7 if I'm lucky....and the quality of those applicants is marginal at best. Everyone I talk to is having the same problem. A sign of things to come further up the food chain? Time will tell, but I can tell you new starts are down.....way...way down. I'd love to fly 121 again...but not for anything close to the pitiful money I was making, and I'm not alone. There are plenty of us on the sidelines, but without some economic incentive, what's the point of returning? Interesting times ahead.

RR

 

[Amish RakeFight]

Amen Brother... the regionals are just not worth the headache. When I was a younger guy, I thought much differently, but these days money is really all that matters... and freedom from what it takes to make it.

 

[rod farva]

I see things changing down at the bottom of the food chain. I bailed out of the regionals 6 years ago because I was hardly making enough to survive. I manage a flight school now and went from getting 50 cfi resumes every time I placed an ad to getting 7 if I'm lucky....and the quality of those applicants is marginal at best. Everyone I talk to is having the same problem. A sign of things to come further up the food chain? Time will tell, but I can tell you new starts are down.....way...way down. I'd love to fly 121 again...but not for anything close to the pitiful money I was making, and I'm not alone. There are plenty of us on the sidelines, but without some economic incentive, what's the point of returning? Interesting times ahead.

RR

That's because they can fog a mirror and walk into an RJ rather than bounce around in a 152.

 

[pilotyip]

I see things changing down at the bottom of the food chain. I bailed out of the regionals 6 years ago because I was hardly making enough to survive. I manage a flight school now and went from getting 50 cfi resumes every time I placed an ad to getting 7 if I'm lucky....and the quality of those applicants is marginal at best. Everyone I talk to is having the same problem. A sign of things to come further up the food chain? Time will tell, but I can tell you new starts are down.....way...way down. I'd love to fly 121 again...but not for anything close to the pitiful money I was making, and I'm not alone. There are plenty of us on the sidelines, but without some economic incentive, what's the point of returning? Interesting times ahead.

RR

This guy gets it, everyone on the lower end of the hirnig chain is having trouble filling classes. They keep redefining competive minimums toward the fogged mirror

 

[Dumb Pilot]

This guy gets it, everyone on the lower end of the hirnig chain is having trouble filling classes. They keep redefining competive minimums toward the fogged mirror

The problem is that the lower end of the hiring chain keeps going up the chain, Have you seen the starting salary at the so called "majors"?
I made more money than that when I was in high school:smash:

 

[ex j-41]

Airways with their $30k for right seat of a 190.
But you do get 1 week vacation for the first 7 years. What a deal!!!!!!

 

[Rerouted]

We are the India or Mexico of aviation in so far as pay is concerned. With that said, at some point demand may outstrip supply and "outsourcing" won't appear in the list of options. Yes, those at the bottom will keep climbing up, there just won't be that many to chose from. Most of the people we train plan on flying recreationally. The professional starts are way down at all the schools I hear from. That should be good news for those stuck in their careers further up the chain.

The fog on the mirror only lasts so long. Especially when training costs continue to grow at a rate that far exceeds the potential for earnings.

RR

 

[Smacktard]

Amen Brother... the regionals are just not worth the headache.

Yep, exactly what this guy says. I made 85k last year on reserve, life is so unfair!

 

[Rerouted]

Good for you Smacktard.

Honestly, the FO pay is horrendous. If you stick around long enough the wages become livable, I believe that's referred to as wearing the golden handcuffs. You probably worked some real hours to make 85k on reserve. Divide that by all the hours you were away from home.....if you still think you did real well, you are the perfect Regional pilot from a management perspective.

The point is this: Who is going to spend 35-55k for training (yes thats what it costs at most places lately) add a 4 year degree and then figure out how to pay those loans on no more than 35k for 4 years? All but the blindest of young people see this as a losing equation, hence low student starts. That 20th year big dollar Fed Ex pay or your somewhat less extraordinary FO reserve pay doesn't help a young pilot who can't pay his or her bills, nor will it blind enough young people to attract a heck of a lot of new talent to the field.

 

[BrickTop]

Is the Airways 190 all part of ONE LIST? Can you upgrade to the Airbus?

 

[sluggo]

It's a clown show, all of it!!!

 

[pilotyip]

Good for you Smacktard.

Divide that by all the hours you were away from home.....if you still think you did real well, you are the perfect Regional pilot from a management perspective.

The point is this: Who is going to spend 35-55k for training (yes thats what it costs at most places lately) add a 4 year degree and then figure out how to pay those loans on no more than 35k for 4 years?

If being home all time is high on your list of priorities, then flying is not a career to pursue. School teaching would be a great choice; they get more time off than an airline pilot, home every night, and in good places make around 80K per year. Have a fantastic union almost impossible to get fired. If you like to fly separation comes with the job. Watch out for 2012 hiring boom it is right around the corner. Those who hang in there are going to be rewarded.

Fly because you like to.

BTW: The college degree thing is not required any regional I know of if you have 1000 TJ PIC.

 

[atpcliff]

Japan, for the first time that I have heard of, is hiring non-type rated capts for the 737. And China, also for the first time I know of, is hiring non-type rated capts for the Airbus-320.

They are not doing it because there is an excess number of guys applying.

cliff
HSV

 

[rod farva]

Heard this one..."Nah, I'm gonna hang at AE. I'll be at American in a year with all the retirements." Anyone read the news today?