Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[NEDude]

More evidence of the tide turning - even in Europe, which has historically been a tighter market than even the U.S.A. is now starting to have a few opportunities crop up. EasyJet is having a hard time crewing its Lisbon, Portugal base and if the rumor mill is to be believed they may start looking for DECs. Parc Aviation currently has summer A320 FO positions open for Aer Lingus out of Dublin - JAA required but no citizenship requirements posted. Going to be interesting pretty soon.

 

[SplitBar]

Sorry gotta call bullcrap on this one.

Senior RJ Captains are making close to 100K at base guarantee. A little over time and premium pay here and there and you can do 120K EASILY. Been there done it.

 

[Andy]

UAVs have a terrible safety record. There is a LONG way to go before we get to that point. Look at how Iran captured that UAV. If we turn airliners over to a similar system, imagine the field day terrorists could have. My guess is the security required for remote controlled airliners will be more expensive than pilots.

Shack. The annual cost of having two pilots in a $100M+ aircraft is cheaper than the increased insurance cost of having that same aircraft as a UAV. Seriously, the cost of two pilots' salaries are peanuts in the scheme of things.
Suppose FedEx went with a bunch of UAVs. I could envision a scenario where a number of players buy puts/sell calls/and short the stock of FedEx and then jam the entire electromagnetic spectrum of Memphis during the period where FedEx's aircraft land for the sort. Don't kid yourselves; this isn't a monumental task.
The cost/benefit is so far out of balance that I don't see pilots being replaced for the next 100 years, if ever. Until you can ensure a 100% reliable link between the ground and aircraft, commercial UAVs are uninsurable. I don't see how anyone could ever ensure 100% reliability.

 

[Andy]

More evidence of the tide turning - even in Europe, which has historically been a tighter market than even the U.S.A. is now starting to have a few opportunities crop up. EasyJet is having a hard time crewing its Lisbon, Portugal base and if the rumor mill is to be believed they may start looking for DECs. Parc Aviation currently has summer A320 FO positions open for Aer Lingus out of Dublin - JAA required but no citizenship requirements posted. Going to be interesting pretty soon.

Interesting. I'd expect the pilot shortages to first appear in SW and SE Asia. Quickly followed by a shortage in the US regionals. I hadn't expected to see shortages in the EU.
In the US, I expect age 65 along with the ATP requirement, going into effect on 1 Aug 2013, to cause many majors to decrease frequency/upguage to mainline many city pairs that are now RJ-only.
One example is UAL's DEN-TUS flights. They're all RJs; 6 flights/day with 50 & 70 seaters. Cut that back to 4 flights/day with 2 RJs and 2 A320s. Same capacity with less frequency.

 

[twott driver]

You are assuming that the industry won't lobby their cronies in congress with lots of $$$$ to get the age 65 and ATP/Rest rules thrown out.... watch this space

 

[Andy]

You are assuming that the industry won't lobby their cronies in congress with lots of $$$$ to get the age 65 and ATP/Rest rules thrown out.... watch this space

Valid points.
I've chewed on the age 65 issue and am concerned that IATA will be pushing for a higher retirement age - fully embraced by ALPA (after more than a decade, I've become convinced that mobsters have more honor than unions). But that portion of the equation (increasing retirement age) can't be pushed out very much further in the US. I know that many over 60 think of themselves as real life Benjamin Buttons but that just isn't the case. Want to kill a profession? Stop having new members join the ranks. That's what the piloting profession has done over the last decade and it's going to bite them in the hind quarters starting in Dec 2012. We can kick the can down the road a little bit but the bite's going to be deeper.

ATP rule thrown out - very possible.

Rest rules thrown out - I don't think so. Too many problems with fatigued crews over the last few years. And this issue gets worse if you extend mandatory retirement age. Does anyone think that a 66 year old can get by with as little sleep as a 23 year old? My (22, 20 year old) kids kick my butt on that metric.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Interesting. I'd expect the pilot shortages to first appear in SW and SE Asia. Quickly followed by a shortage in the US regionals. I hadn't expected to see shortages in the EU..

Well, there isn't a shortage of pilots in the EU per say, there is a shortage of good jobs, there are many JAA licensed pilots on the contract market that simply will not go back for what is being offered at some of this jobs that are showing up here and there, self sponsored (we know it as PFT) low pay, minimum days off and barely regulatory rest are some of the reasons why they are having difficulty filling up classes, not because there aren't enough pilots.

 

[Andy]

Well, there isn't a shortage of pilots in the EU per say, there is a shortage of good jobs, there are many JAA licensed pilots on the contract market that simply will not go back for what is being offered at some of this jobs that are showing up here and there, self sponsored (we know it as PFT) low pay, minimum days off and barely regulatory rest are some of the reasons why they are having difficulty filling up classes, not because there aren't enough pilots.

I want to apologize up front for sounding like a jerk; I have a tendency to do that.

We're saying the same thing. You're stating that the shortage of pilots (x axis of a labor supply-demand curve) in the EU is due to low pay and benefits (y axis of a labor supply-demand curve). The upward sloping supply of pilots is less than the downward sloping demand of pilots at the current wage rates. EU airlines will be forced to increase wages in order to have the supply-demand curves back in equilibrium. The end result will be more pilots hired in the EU at higher wages.
The shortages that the EU is starting to see are due to the higher wages offered by Middle Eastern and Asian airlines. They are forced to offer higher wages due to their own supply-demand imbalances.

I hadn't thought abut the supply and demand of pilots on a worldwide scale; age 65 is going to be a big game changer in terms of pilot wages due to the lack of new pilots entering the profession worldwide over the last decade.

 

[sniper]

Sorry gotta call bullcrap on this one.

You can call what you want to call Tom but the fact is a fact.

Mesa pilots would have made over 100k and a better contract back in 2003 if people like you did not go to Freedom.

I guess upgrading to a captain out of seniority as a freedom A pilot did not help your career. I see you change many jobs

cheers

 

[NEDude]

Well, there isn't a shortage of pilots in the EU per say, there is a shortage of good jobs, there are many JAA licensed pilots on the contract market that simply will not go back for what is being offered at some of this jobs that are showing up here and there, self sponsored (we know it as PFT) low pay, minimum days off and barely regulatory rest are some of the reasons why they are having difficulty filling up classes, not because there aren't enough pilots.

I didn't mean to imply there was a shortage of pilots in the EU, more to indicate to indicate what you are saying - the lower end jobs are finding it hard to fill seats at the compensation levels they have been able fill seats with in the past.

I think you are starting to see the "shortage" play itself out in Asia. I just got an email today advertising E-170/190 captains in China. The total 3 year compensation on this contract is north of a half million dollars after taxes (Chinese taxes are paid by the airline and the United States and China have a tax treaty which prevents double taxation).

The major "legacy" carriers - United, Delta, British Airways, Lufthansa, etc - will always be able to fill their flight deck seats. It is at the LCC and regional level where you will see issues, and you are beginning to see glimpses of that in a few places. EasyJet is having trouble crewing its Lisbon base, some regional airlines are having 10-20% no show rates for new-hire classes.