DL warns on losses and liquidity

[General Lee]

GL;

You forgot to add:

10. Enriching our senior top-third pilots for 3 years after 9/11 by scr*wing the bottom-third.

11. Piss our funds away on legal bills to the losing campaign to grieve FM

12. Allowing our most senior pilots to take early retirement AND continue flying, at the expense of furlough recalls.

13. Continue to blame CMR pilots for not doing enough for our furloughs while DALPA went all out on COBRA and secret Santa.

14. Keep bashing all the airlines who are kicking our *ss.

These are huge components of the survival/recovery plan

Davie, you're back from the dead. Still mad at Dalpa, even though they are working on FM2 backpay, and helped get 125 furloughs back this year after the company originally said NONE? Yeah, and you are still mad at the senior bunch, even though most have left by now or will when things get bumpier. They have the seniority and longevity---and can do that since you do NOT. I am trying to understand your #13----since Dalpa did do a lot more than previous furlough periods for our pilots. You don't remember that?

And, am I bashing the other airlines, or am I extolling Delta? I am backing up DL. I can see the plan, whereas the others can not or don't want to.

Davie, you need to go back into that hole. When your number is called, you can choose to come back, but maybe you should stay out. Prozac is in your future, no doubt.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[737 Pylt]

Davie, you need to go back into that hole. When your number is called, you can choose to come back, but maybe you should stay out. Prozac is in your future, no doubt.


Bye Bye--General Lee

General:
I don't think Dave will ever be happy! He really does need to find his "happy place."
737

 

[Dizel8]

"I think Ray Neidl"

But that does not change his valuation of DCI and with oil staying this high, it does not look wise to get more 50 seaters since the push is for 70+ seaters.

But lets say, that they spin of ASA, since it is the most likely to sell and having Comair would not leave them at total mercy of SKYW. It would more than likely be a cost plus deal for the feed.

ASA, according to analyst, might fetch 300M, maybe more, maybe less. Well, the projections for this year, 2005, is that Delta losses will be halved . 300M is better than nothing, but is it enough?

 

[Vikedog64]

Q

"I think Ray Neidl"

But that does not change his valuation of DCI and with oil staying this high, it does not look wise to get more 50 seaters since the push is for 70+ seaters.

But lets say, that they spin of ASA, since it is the most likely to sell and having Comair would not leave them at total mercy of SKYW. It would more than likely be a cost plus deal for the feed.

ASA, according to analyst, might fetch 300M, maybe more, maybe less. Well, the projections for this year, 2005, is that Delta losses will be halved . 300M is better than nothing, but is it enough?

Question for anyone who can answer it. What are the chances that states get involved, in DAL's case, the state of Georgia with financing? It seems like a possibility doesn't it?

 

[737 Pylt]

You're right... It probably will happen. For your sake, I hope that's not the crux of the plan. If it is, you and your buddies will be flying for US Air wages before long.

Selling DCI is nothing more than a very small band aid being put on a gapping hole.

Surly your not so single minded to think this is the savior.

I have to agree with you there, it isn't going to be the savior. It will only lessen some of our enormous debt! (and not by a lot)
And don't call me surly!
737

 

[jetflyer]

Don't forget to mention that Delta is paying INTEREST on $21,000,000,000 in debt.

This is an expense the low cost carriers don't deal with and puts Delta at a TREMENDOUS DISADVANTAGE.

Most of Delta's debt is at about 8% interest:

8% of 21 Billion is: 1.68 Billion a YEAR in just INTEREST EXPENSES!!!!

THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE PAYING ANY OF THE DEBT DOWN, JUST THE INTEREST!!

How can an airline pay 1.68 billion just in INTEREST a year and expect to compete with Jetblue, Airtran, and Southwest??

Plus, Delta has already used most of its assets as collateral to GE and others. This leaves Delta in very bad shape and nothing to give for FUTURE FINANCING. Delta may have a VERY hard time getting someone to loan them money in the future. Let's hope not

Everyone associated with Delta keep praying. It's going to be a rough couple years ahead.

Jet

 

[Dizel8]

"What are the chances that states get involved, in DAL's case, the state of Georgia with financing"?

They could and it would probably be a smart move, since the loss of DAL would be a big blow on the GA economy. Then again, getting states and the voter to realize how important airlines are, that could be harder. Plenty of NIMBYs who wants direct flights to every where, but think the airport should be far away from them and that those noisy thingies with wings are just a plane nusisance

(Spelling incorrect on porpoise,the dolphin couldn't read)

 

[Vikedog64]

"What are the chances that states get involved, in DAL's case, the state of Georgia with financing"?

They could and it would probably be a smart move, since the loss of DAL would be a big blow on the GA economy. Then again, getting states and the voter to realize how important airlines are, that could be harder. Plenty of NIMBYs who wants direct flights to every where, but think the airport should be far away from them and that those noisy thingies with wings are just a plane nusisance

(Spelling incorrect on porpoise,the dolphin couldn't read)

Good one!

 

[General Lee]

Don't forget to mention that Delta is paying INTEREST on $21,000,000,000 in debt.

This is an expense the low cost carriers don't deal with and puts Delta at a TREMENDOUS DISADVANTAGE.

Most of Delta's debt is at about 8% interest:

8% of 21 Billion is: 1.68 Billion a YEAR in just INTEREST EXPENSES!!!!

THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE PAYING ANY OF THE DEBT DOWN, JUST THE INTEREST!!

How can an airline pay 1.68 billion just in INTEREST a year and expect to compete with Jetblue, Airtran, and Southwest??

Plus, Delta has already used most of its assets as collateral to GE and others. This leaves Delta in very bad shape and nothing to give for FUTURE FINANCING. Delta may have a VERY hard time getting someone to loan them money in the future. Let's hope not

Everyone associated with Delta keep praying. It's going to be a rough couple years ahead.

Jet

Jet,

I read $9 billion of that debt is associated with the 500 RJs we own. IF we sell that to SkyWest etc, we will have $12 billion in debt, which is more manageable. We have also cut expenses right now by $2.3 billion a year, and are aiming to have a $5 billion a year savings by 2006, but until then we need to stay afloat, and selling off ASA or Comair (or both) will help. Our VP of Flt Ops said in the lounge meeting that we are in a debt hole, and it would take some years to climb out, but it was doable.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

"I think Ray Neidl"

But that does not change his valuation of DCI and with oil staying this high, it does not look wise to get more 50 seaters since the push is for 70+ seaters.

But lets say, that they spin of ASA, since it is the most likely to sell and having Comair would not leave them at total mercy of SKYW. It would more than likely be a cost plus deal for the feed.

ASA, according to analyst, might fetch 300M, maybe more, maybe less. Well, the projections for this year, 2005, is that Delta losses will be halved . 300M is better than nothing, but is it enough?

You keep lowballing it. Susan Donofrio said TODAY that we could probably sell them for about $1 billion. Does she know something or talk to anyone at our headquarters? She talks to the guys at every conference call, and they call her by her first name. I would think she probably knows better than you what the potential worth is. Also, Delta would sell them with a 10 year or so deal along with it, so it would be worth more. And, remember please, that most of the 2004 loss was a paper loss. That $2.2 billion quarter loss had $1.5 billion or more as a write down for ASA/Comair. Not pretty, but not overwhelming. We are getting our shiznet together, but these fuel prices don't help. At least that last fare increase held together---thanks NW.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dizel8]

"You keep lowballing it"

I did not, your friend Ray did and I am sure he is on a first name basis with management too.

As for the loss, maybe you could take all 5.2B and call it a paperloss. Hey, be proud, it is the largest loss in aviation history, so you are the biggest in something

A report from your CEO states that the 5B in savings may not be enough and that DAL could face a hard time if Ch.11 happens due to no money to exit.Then again, maybe plenty will line up to finance.

P.S. If you do not think 700M in a quarter is overwhelming, maybe you need to let the wife handle the checkbook!

 

[General Lee]

Here you go AGAIN DIZEL8,

2/15/2005 10:49 AM EST



Delta Air Lines (DAL:NYSE - commentary - research) shares gained Tuesday after Calyon Securities upgraded them on a rosy assessment of the company's turnaround plan.

Shares were up 9 cents, or 1.6%, at $5.67 after rising by as much as 7.2%.

Ray Neidl, Calyon's airline analyst, raised his rating on the stock to add from neutral. "After meeting with management, our confidence that Delta can execute its plan to address its cost structure and overly leveraged balance sheet has increased," Neidl wrote in a research note explaining the upgrade. (Calyon has not received compensation for investment banking from Delta in the last year and does not expect to receive or seek such compensation in the next three months.)

After achieving $1 billion in annual savings from a new pilots contract late last year, Delta last month rocked the industry with its SimpliFares program, which simplified pricing and reduced maximum fares. The airline also executed a major rescheduling at its Atlanta hub.

"We believe that, over the next 12 months, while the company addresses its overly leveraged balance sheet, Delta will also realize the benefits from its recent cost cuts, schedule changes and streamlined operations," Neidl wrote. "As a result, we believe that Delta could have substantial upside potential in returning to profitability and in its stock price. We believe that Delta will now survive the slow winter period, even with the dilutive impact of SimpliFares, and then benefit from the higher cash flow typically seen during the spring and summer seasons."

The Atlanta-based carrier had a fourth-quarter net loss of $2.2 billion, or $16.58 a share, including noncash charges totaling $1.4 billion, vs. a loss of $327 million, or $2.69 a share, a year ago. The airline industry has been plagued with high fuel prices, overcapacity and cutthroat price competition.



So, would Ray change his mind after 3 weeks? Well, fuel is going up, but we might also make some money on DCI, so would he change his mind? Unlikely chief.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chperplt]

General,

Had one of your Lieutenants on our jumpseat tonight. He says that you guys are about to get hit with another pay cut and your pensions are probably going the way of US Air and UAL.. Any truth to that??

 

[jetflyer]

Jet,

I read $9 billion of that debt is associated with the 500 RJs we own. IF we sell that to SkyWest etc, we will have $12 billion in debt, which is more manageable. We have also cut expenses right now by $2.3 billion a year, and are aiming to have a $5 billion a year savings by 2006, but until then we need to stay afloat, and selling off ASA or Comair (or both) will help. Our VP of Flt Ops said in the lounge meeting that we are in a debt hole, and it would take some years to climb out, but it was doable.


Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

500 RJs?? ASA and Comair together only have about 320 at the most. Plus I don't think Delta OWNs these RJs. I think they're leased. I've heard Comair's RJs are atleast.

I seriously doubt $9 BILLION of the DEBT is from RJs as well.

Plus, this is where you are DREAMING:

Skywest is going to pay $1 BILLION to buy ASA and Comair to ASSUME $9 BILLION in debt. THAT WOULD BE PRETTY STUPID.

Hmmm, let's give Delta $1 billion so we can go in debt by $9 billion.

I DON'T THINK SO. THAT debt is Delta's and NO SALE is going to change that.

Jet

 

[General Lee]

General,

Had one of your Lieutenants on our jumpseat tonight. He says that you guys are about to get hit with another pay cut and your pensions are probably going the way of US Air and UAL.. Any truth to that??

I haven't heard that. Lots of speculation, mainly on this board. I am glad one of my "lieutenants" said that. I am sure people are expecting it. As far as the pensions thing goes, if anyone even mentions that---another 1000 Captains will probably bail, and I will be a Captain. And, if you were an ASA guy, you could probably get hired and be my FO..... Where is fins?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General,

500 RJs?? ASA and Comair together only have about 320 at the most. Plus I don't think Delta OWNs these RJs. I think they're leased. I've heard Comair's RJs are atleast.

I seriously doubt $9 BILLION of the DEBT is from RJs as well.

Plus, this is where you are DREAMING:

Skywest is going to pay $1 BILLION to buy ASA and Comair to ASSUME $9 BILLION in debt. THAT WOULD BE PRETTY STUPID.

Hmmm, let's give Delta $1 billion so we can go in debt by $9 billion.

I DON'T THINK SO. THAT debt is Delta's and NO SALE is going to change that.

Jet

Jet,

You don't understand the situation. We don't sell planes and keep the debt. It doesn't work that way. All airlines have some sort of debt, and expanding ones create more. SkyWest would grow by a lot, and assume more debt. The cash would be for the operations and holdings. I will try to find the exact number for you.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[jetflyer]

General,

But since most of the planes are LEASED, don't they just assume the LEASES??

There would be no debt in this instance would there?

Jet

 

[General Lee]

General,

But since most of the planes are LEASED, don't they just assume the LEASES??

There would be no debt in this instance would there?

Jet

We do own quite a few of the planes, like all CR7s and over 100 CRJ50s. We also own facilities (gates, huffers, etc.) All of that would be counted. I am still looking for the exact number I read, and I will get that to you as soon as I can. I am off on a 4 day early tomorrow (today).


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[michael707767]

General,

Had one of your Lieutenants on our jumpseat tonight. He says that you guys are about to get hit with another pay cut and your pensions are probably going the way of US Air and UAL.. Any truth to that??

I'll answer that one too. Lots of talk about it, nothing from the company. But, I would expect them to come after the pension and ask for about 10-15% pay cuts. Not eliminate the pension, but make more changes to it, effectively cutting in half what the guys with 25 years will get. The rest of us are ****** anyway.

Personally, I would rather restructure the retirement than take another pay cut. I can fund my own retirement, but I don't want to take pay cut after pay cut trying to save a pension which is toast no matter what we do.

 

[michael707767]

Skywest is going to pay $1 BILLION to buy ASA and Comair to ASSUME $9 BILLION in debt. THAT WOULD BE PRETTY STUPID.

Hey if you believe Delta management, the RJs are self financing, which is why they went into debt to buy them in the first place.
PS I have some land in Florida......