DELTA vs SWA from another thread....

[FlyBoeingJets]

SWA has always had the most competitive rates for flying, either they go down or the industry comes up. In my opinion, the rates at SW will likely freeze until the rest of industry matches it. SW used to have more productive pilots flying more hours for less money in the 80's and 90's. Today the major pilots work the same as SW pilots at less pay. It's economy 101 that you can sustain that rate in this type of market.

I've read your dire warnings for years, Mr. PhD of Airplanes. Yet quarter after quarter since pay and benefits have gone down at all the Legacies, we don't see the effect you have predicted. We see higher costs due to hub inefficiencies, fleet mix issues and debt problems at the Legacies. We've seen JetBlue stumble and now they have high debt for their size.

Airtran and USAir are the only immediate sources of trouble on the horizon. Is that what you are referring to?


How many more quarters until it all comes true???? Just give us a rough guess.

 

[General Lee]

Pay go up? Maybe. But right now it is only wishful thinking. IMHO, not a good bet. I just caught you speeding again General. Not a fact at all.

Looking better? Absolutely. I am very happy my buds at DAL have a very good future ahead. Note that does not mean without bumps--see below.

Growth ahead? Yes. But the usual caveat remains. Growth can slow with little notice. Not something to be counted on.

You'll argue how I'm all wet General, but the economy is rapidly slowing down. Growth will be tenuous at best.

Not a good bet, eh? We will get a raise of 1.5% every year for the next couple as per the contract, and up to 6% a year if we are profitable. So, regardless, you are wrong, it is a fact---via the contract. I know accountants can try to play with numbers, but this is all pre-tax---if we have a profit we will increase the 1.5% to something more, up to 6% (each year). If we have another 9-11, then everything is off the table, including your job and mine.

Growth? Yes, we have the orders and more to come. (all rumors of course..................) Really.......

Yes, the economy is slowing. But, we have cleaned up in BK, and we are ready to compete when others are slowing down (UAL cutting domestic capacity by 2%). We cut too much pre-BK and have added too many RJs, and our management knows that. We cut our leases from $280,000 a month on each MD88 to $80,000. We are poised to go forward and we aren't parking any more planes (we already did that--737-200s, 737-300s etc). Things are looking up.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ivauir]

I find it interenting that some folks cite the "excitiment" of the flying as a reason to choose an airline to work for. I've done almost every kind of flying there is (I'm still waiting for a chance to fly an airship) and ALL airline flying is boring. That is kind of the point, isn't it? We work hard to make everying as "canned" and routine as possible. If you want excitment go fly helicopters off of oil rigs. Make sure you keep your life insurance paid up if you do.

Delta is a fine company with a checkered past and too many paint schemes, but it might have a great future. If you've never travelled and you've never flown a big airplane (and those things matter to you) consider Delta.
I'd recommend SWA for the stability and growth. But this business is crazy, and there are no guarantees. Odds are if you come to SWA you'll see constant growth and profits. Odds are the only way you'll get to fly widebody international is to go with Delta. Either or both predictions could be wrong.

General Lee paints a rosy picture, but he never gives a very balanced view when either Delta or SWA are mentioned.... Take him with a grain of salt and SWA/FO with 2 grains and you might have am accurate picture.

The best reason to go Delta is probably because you've wanted to since you were 5.

 

[crxpilot]

I personally just like to stay in my country that has a habeas corpus. Int'l is way overrated.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

I've read your dire warnings for years, Mr. PhD of Airplanes. Yet quarter after quarter since pay and benefits have gone down at all the Legacies, we don't see the effect you have predicted. We see higher costs due to hub inefficiencies, fleet mix issues and debt problems at the Legacies. We've seen JetBlue stumble and now they have high debt for their size.

Airtran and USAir are the only immediate sources of trouble on the horizon. Is that what you are referring to?


How many more quarters until it all comes true???? Just give us a rough guess.

It has already come true, the only reason SW is not in the red right now is because they have enough cash on hand to pay down debts. They had $4 billion in cash and investments at the start of 2005, today they have $1.7 billion in cash and none in investments. After the rest of this years stock buy backs and equipment updates, they will have zero cash on hand. A total loss of $4 billion over the last 3 years just like every other airline.

Things SW normally pays cash for, i.e. airplanes, ground equipment, gates, advertising fees, office supplies, investments, gates, maintenance parts, stock buy backs, etc... will all enter the cash flow and become long term debt. The cash flow however will be in the red in 2008 leading to an almost certain bankruptcy by 2009 or so.

 

[HA25]

WN pays more now, and will probably continue to pay well for the foreseeable future, they're financially stable, and behind UPS in my view the best job in aviation IF YOU DON'T MIND FLYING 737's AROUND THE US THE REST OF YOUR LIFE!

 

[Howard Hughes]

I personally just like to stay in my country that has a habeas corpus. Int'l is way overrated.

Once again, each to their own. I can tell you that after talking to many of the fine folks that have done domestic and international pax operations, the overwhelming sentiment is that international is what they enjoy most. Sure the legs are longer but you also get paid to sleep for part of that flight which aint such a bad thing. I talked to a 747 pax driver last night, he said its a totally different world from the MD80 flying he used to do domesticaly. With the ability to go back to some comfortable quarters during the flight, eat a first class meal, relax, get some sleep, read, watch a movie, etc. then back up for a few more hours of flying before a really nice layover somewhere that you mostly just see on TV has been a good deal for him. Its not uncommon that he would take his wife or family members along to explore/shop/eat with during these trips.

I suspect some of the folks that instantly say international is over-rated, either did it in the military, which is a totally different animal all together or a second tier freight hauler which again is something entirely different from what a pilot would expect to experience at Delta. There are many trips at Delta that crew planners refer to simply as "paid vacation" because of the cities and layover time. Again, not slamming SWA because for what they are, its a nice pay check and some good people, but for those folks trying to figure out where to go, try thinking long term and figure out ways you can stay interested in a job that has sunk to a low spot these past several years. As you were....

 

[HA25]

I have to admit, too much of a good thing also can be a burnout.. I fly ONLY international and it gets a bit old dealing with the idiot HF "controllers" and cluster F$%K hand offs.. so ideally, I'd want to be able to mix it up..

 

[Howard Hughes]

I have to admit, too much of a good thing also can be a burnout.. I fly ONLY international and it gets a bit old dealing with the idiot HF "controllers" and cluster F$%K hand offs.. so ideally, I'd want to be able to mix it up..

FMS-Speed, just as a reference point, do you mind if I ask who you fly for? United?

 

[On Your Six]

Pay go up? Maybe. But right now it is only wishful thinking. IMHO, not a good bet. I just caught you speeding again General. Not a fact at all.

Looking better? Absolutely. I am very happy my buds at DAL have a very good future ahead. Note that does not mean without bumps--see below.

Growth ahead? Yes. But the usual caveat remains. Growth can slow with little notice. Not something to be counted on.

You'll argue how I'm all wet General, but the economy is rapidly slowing down. Growth will be tenuous at best.

The economy is actually not slowing down - look at the stock market (sets records every other day). Housing has cooled but there are indications that housing levels are starting to rebound - it still might take some time though. Interest rates have not increased indicating that inflation is not yet a problem. If the US economy really tanked (including fuel prices skyrocket even higher), all domestic airlines would be adversely impacted because there isn't much room to increase yields in this competitive LCC environment...

However, growth is still happening abroad and Delta should be capturing a lot of it as it continues to expand internationally. International growth can also partially subsidize domestic operations. You have more discretion with internationl margins because you have fewer nonstop competitors. Delta's product is a lot better than that of many government-owned airlines (i.e., South America and Africa) and its feed/networking-ability through ATL, JFK and LAX provides a compelling reason to fly Delta - you can get from Moscow or Dubai to Gainsville with one stop. If you want growth right now, Delta is correctly chasing it internationally while SWA is looking to add more airplanes/capacity to existing hyper-competitive routes. With the unreserved seating (cattle car boarding) and lack of IFE, can SWA compete with other new LCCs offering similar fares and departure times?

Think about it, how high will domestic airfares be a few years from now after SWA adds another hundred 737-700s, JetBlue adds 50 more A320s and 30 more E190s, Skybus adds 40 A319s, Virgin America adds 30 A320s, AirTran adds 50 more 737-700s (probably putting them on Midwest's network), Spirit adds 30 more A319s, Frontier adds 20 more A319s and 20 addtional E170s, Republic adds 100 more E170s for UAL, USAirways and DAL, etc.? Margins will be miniscule at best with so much competition. SWA needs to differentiate itself fast. International growth and a great domestic feed/network should help to reduce the domestic margin squeeze for airlines like Delta and CAL at the very least. It should be interesting to watch.

If you really want to reduce your career risk, go fly a Citation X or a GIVSP for Netjets/NJI - it is solidly the fractional market leader by a wide margin (Warren Buffet can't be wrong) and there will always be plenty of rich people out there willing to throw their money around...