Delta realignment

[skykid]

Delta's domestic flying out of ATL is going to get smaller, in my opinion, by a significant amount in the near future. They will have to quit some of the flying where they are getting beaten up if they are going to turn the corner - with or without CH 11. Adding internationally is the right direction, but only one part of the equation.

 

[JoeMerchant]

What many at mainline had been saying after 9-11 was "we are starting to get it, WE are ALL in this together", however with explosive RJ growth, it was muted, and a more divisive line was drawn.

Does everyone GET it know. NO ONE is immune, and WE are ALL in this together. Why is this such a hard concept t grasp.

This reminds of the story about the Lone Ranger and Tonto being tied to a stake while a band of Indians circles them sharpening their tomahawks. The Lone Ranger turns to Tonto and says "We need to get out of here". Tonto replies "what do you mean WE white-man?"

AAflyer, we aren't "ALL in this together". The mainlines, especially APA have made it clear that we are separate. You mainline folks are now reaping what you have sown.

You can take your "WE" and your "ALL in this together" and file it the "shoulda-woulda-coulda" file. Your a day late and a dollar short.

Joe

 

[JoeMerchant]

General Lee,

"The natural progression" has been replaced by "natural selection". Adapt or die - you're choice.
....or as they say in the investment world, "past performance is no guarantee of future results".

Joe

 

[General Lee]

Delta's domestic flying out of ATL is going to get smaller, in my opinion, by a significant amount in the near future. They will have to quit some of the flying where they are getting beaten up if they are going to turn the corner - with or without CH 11. Adding internationally is the right direction, but only one part of the equation.

Incorrect. They are trying to put more pressure on Airtran. Some of the flights they have recently added are in direct competition---like adding Bloomington, IL and Moline, IA. Unfortunately, they are putting RJs on those routes against Airtran 717s, which I think is wrong, but will add seats to their markets and influence some people to fly DL to ATL and beyond. As far as cutting back flights on routes that we are "getting beaten up"---it doesn't look like Grinstein is doing that. He recognizes now that INTL flights without LCC competition actually can produce higher revenue margins and better yields. There will still be a monster feed system in ATL, and hopefully the new version of operation clockwork (stage 2) has started and will create faster turn arounds. When the weather goes bad at any hub--like ORD and DEN in the Winter for UA, things slow down. The parking of some 762s will produce alittle less traffic, but the quicker turn times on the MD88s and 738s will make up for some of that.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General Lee,

"The natural progression" has been replaced by "natural selection". Adapt or die - you're choice.
....or as they say in the investment world, "past performance is no guarantee of future results".

Joe

Joe,

I agree with you. I do. Delta has to find out how to make money. With the ever expanding LCCs, we either bring our domestic costs down to that level, or we put everything into INTL and avoid them all together. To fill those INTL flights, we have to have feed---and that comes from domestic flying. So, there has to be a mix, and maybe we will use Song as a domestic tool. And, if we go to court, we will lower those costs most likely.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[JoeMerchant]

Joe,

I agree with you. I do. Delta has to find out how to make money. With the ever expanding LCCs, we either bring our domestic costs down to that level, or we put everything into INTL and avoid them all together. To fill those INTL flights, we have to have feed---and that comes from domestic flying. So, there has to be a mix, and maybe we will use Song as a domestic tool. And, if we go to court, we will lower those costs most likely.

Bye Bye--General Lee

As usual General, you totally missed my point. I wasn't refering to Delta changing, I was referring to ALPA and mainline pilots like you who still hold on to the old "natural progression" BS. That "natural progression" you speak of for us lowly "regional" pilots has been replaced by natural selection of those who survive with jobs and those who don't. I'm not interested in "progessing" according to your pre-destined right of passage - rather I am interested in protecting my job regardless of how it affects you.

Joe

 

[skykid]

Incorrect. They are trying to put more pressure on Airtran. Some of the flights they have recently added are in direct competition---like adding Bloomington, IL and Moline, IA.

I doubt very seriously I'm incorrect! I promise you if Ch11 comes, and I certainly hope somehow Delta can avoid it, Delta will not have a choice but to drop a large percentage of seats in some of the worst markets. If Delta can avoid CH11, it will be in part because they were able to come to terms with this reality.

 

[banger]

Joe,

I agree with you. I do. Delta has to find out how to make money. With the ever expanding LCCs, we either bring our domestic costs down to that level, or we put everything into INTL and avoid them all together. To fill those INTL flights, we have to have feed---and that comes from domestic flying. So, there has to be a mix, and maybe we will use Song as a domestic tool. And, if we go to court, we will lower those costs most likely.

Bye Bye--General Lee

General
Does this indicate a shift in your original thinking? In other words all along I thought you indicated Delta would be able to fight LCC and charge more money with a better product, ie freq flier programs, crown room, connections etc...
Your above comment seems to indicate you now believe DAL needs to drop costs to match the LCC and fly international to compete with LCC's. This is what I believe DAL needs to do.
Song loads are OK but from the ticket prices I believe there is no real profit there. It seems to be more of a defensive weapon against the LCC rather than a money maker. I think that if DAL did go chp-11 whomever is calling the shots is not going to allow any irrational flying to go on which I believe right now Song is doing.

 

[General Lee]

As usual General, you totally missed my point. I wasn't refering to Delta changing, I was referring to ALPA and mainline pilots like you who still hold on to the old "natural progression" BS. That "natural progression" you speak of for us lowly "regional" pilots has been replaced by natural selection of those who survive with jobs and those who don't. I'm not interested in "progessing" according to your pre-destined right of passage - rather I am interested in protecting my job regardless of how it affects you.

Joe

DA DA DA DAM. Joe buddy, relax. I wasn't trying to make you mad here. Maybe I did miss your point. Sheesh.

First off, take a look at all of our furloughs over the last 4 1/2 years. I guess you forgot that we had 1300 pilots out of work for a while. The regional guys aren't the only targets when things go bad. You guys actually grew during that time, which has helped us sink. Did ALPA see 9-11 coming and the resulting economic downturn that may have already been in the works? I don't think so. Krap happens. How about gas prices climbing thanks to greedy speculators, Iraq violence, and a huge Hurricane season? Did you know all about that before it happened? You did? Why didn't you say something?

AS far as you protecting your job, that is up to you. You and others have lost sight of the big prize---going on to a Major and enjoy better pay and benefits. Unfortunately not many are doing that right now (except CAL)---and some of that is because the RJDC bunch would rather fly the larger planes (90 or 100 seaters) at their airlines so they don't have to go to all of the hassle of geting hired, starting over, and losing the 4 weeks in Myrtle Beach each year. Sad but true Joe.

Now, higher gas has made some of your planes obsolete, and you aren't happy. (Just like after 9-11 when larger planes were parked when the loads were lighter because of fear of flying) That's the way it goes. I am sure the company will ask ALPA first if they want to bid on the new 100 seaters, and I see ALPA doing it, and the pay rates may be like Jetblue's because unfortunately that is the going rate.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General
Does this indicate a shift in your original thinking? In other words all along I thought you indicated Delta would be able to fight LCC and charge more money with a better product, ie freq flier programs, crown room, connections etc...
Your above comment seems to indicate you now believe DAL needs to drop costs to match the LCC and fly international to compete with LCC's. This is what I believe DAL needs to do.
Song loads are OK but from the ticket prices I believe there is no real profit there. It seems to be more of a defensive weapon against the LCC rather than a money maker. I think that if DAL did go chp-11 whomever is calling the shots is not going to allow any irrational flying to go on which I believe right now Song is doing.

I think we should have Song doing most of the domestic if possible, and then a full service INTL product. Song is very popular and the TVs are great--something most LCCs do not have. As far as INTL goes, you need to differentiate yourself because many of the INTL airlines have very cheap labor and very good service, and you would lose out if you didn't try. That is what I would like to see.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[uba757]

What I undestand is that around 165 pilot positions willbe cut by either furlough or personal leave. Uba757

 

[MetroSheriff]

As usual General, you totally missed my point. I wasn't refering to Delta changing, I was referring to ALPA and mainline pilots like you who still hold on to the old "natural progression" BS. That "natural progression" you speak of for us lowly "regional" pilots has been replaced by natural selection of those who survive with jobs and those who don't. I'm not interested in "progessing" according to your pre-destined right of passage - rather I am interested in protecting my job regardless of how it affects you.

Joe

Uh oh, someone is on his rant again.

JB is that you????

 

[Andy Neill]

Incorrect. They are trying to put more pressure on Airtran. Some of the flights they have recently added are in direct competition---like adding Bloomington, IL and Moline, IA.

Call me crazy, but I don't think AirTran cares a bit about Delta coming to Moline, IA....IF, in fact, they can find such a place.

 

[On Your Six]

Call me crazy, but I don't think AirTran cares a bit about Delta coming to Moline, IA....IF, in fact, they can find such a place.

http://forums.flightinfo.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Delta needs to compete with AirTran on these types of routes but with 70-100 seat aircraft. The CRJs can't compete from either an economic or an ergonomic/comfort standpoint (both the CRJ-200 and the 700 are equally uncomfortable although the 700 has better economics). Larger aircraft don't make sense because of the limited demand from these smaller markets. Delta offers more international connections than AirTran for Moline business people (John Deere has a large office there with thousands of people stationed in the area) and a better frequent flier program - so, there are reasons for people from Moline to choose Delta. If Delta had E-170 or E-190 aircraft available it could offer a product as good as the 717 in terms of comfort and cost.

AirTran cannot provide the scope of national (e.g., Daytona Beach or El Paso) or international connections that Delta can provide - so, Delta's costs need to be lower in order to more effectively compete and preserve margins. E-170s and E190s would provide a very competitive product to counter Air Tran's advances.

Let's hope DAL pilots negotiate the right to fly these aircraft at near-Jet Blue wages (hopefully a little higher because Jet Blue's E-190 rates are economic for the airline but still too low for the pilots) after Chap. 11 happens and the restructuring begins...

 

[ATRCA]

Delta needs to compete with AirTran on these types of routes but with 70-100 seat aircraft. The CRJs can't compete from either an economic or an ergonomic/comfort standpoint (both the CRJ-200 and the 700 are equally uncomfortable although the 700 has better economics). Larger aircraft don't make sense because of the limited demand from these smaller markets. Delta offers more international connections than AirTran for Moline business people (John Deere has a large office there with thousands of people stationed in the area) and a better frequent flier program - so, there are reasons for people from Moline to choose Delta. If Delta had E-170 or E-190 aircraft available it could offer a product as good as the 717 in terms of comfort and cost.

AirTran cannot provide the scope of national (e.g., Daytona Beach or El Paso) or international connections that Delta can provide - so, Delta's costs need to be lower in order to more effectively compete and preserve margins. E-170s and E190s would provide a very competitive product to counter Air Tran's advances.

Let's hope DAL pilots negotiate the right to fly these aircraft at near-Jet Blue wages (hopefully a little higher because Jet Blue's E-190 rates are economic for the airline but still too low for the pilots) after Chap. 11 happens and the restructuring begins...

Yes, yes, yes, but....JB's pay retes for the E-190 or not great, but the rate changes depending on how much your willing to work. They are not horrible and the type would be good for Delta mgmnt and pilots in my opinion.

 

[wms]

The problem is DAL can't afford to buy new planes, E170/190 or otherwise. If they are gonna put planes in the 70 seat or 90-110 seat range on line they're gonna have to pay someone else to do it. DALPA surely won't let another carrier fly 90-110 seaters, so that leaves contract carriers to fly the E170s, and leaves a gap in the 100 seat markets. One of the results of DALPA's giving in on scope IMHO. I'd rather see growth at ML than contract carriers, one of which I am now, thank you very much! So much for WOs doing 50% of DAL departures (I wonder DALPA/ALPA is on this).

DAL has gotten into more of a position of being a seat broker than an airline.

 

[79%N1]

The 70-100 seat jets will be fought out by the contract carriers, probably a combination of CHQ/REP and Skywest/ASA after DAL declares bankrupcy and their scope gets tossed out (See USAIRWAYS). Maybe even for E190 products. DAL cannot afford to buy these airplanes, and DALPA WILL NOT be competitive for what these other companies can fly for. Remember, overall costs are the factor, not just crew pay. Managers, dispatchers, cleaners, rampers and mechanics all cost more at DAL than CHQ or SKW! DAL needs to, and probably wants to compete with the likes of Airtran out of ATL and Jet Blue out of NY and FLA, but cannot with 50 seat RJ's OR old, expensive MD80's and 737's.

IMHO

 

[General Lee]

The problem is DAL can't afford to buy new planes, E170/190 or otherwise. If they are gonna put planes in the 70 seat or 90-110 seat range on line they're gonna have to pay someone else to do it. DALPA surely won't let another carrier fly 90-110 seaters, so that leaves contract carriers to fly the E170s, and leaves a gap in the 100 seat markets. One of the results of DALPA's giving in on scope IMHO. I'd rather see growth at ML than contract carriers, one of which I am now, thank you very much! So much for WOs doing 50% of DAL departures (I wonder DALPA/ALPA is on this).

DAL has gotten into more of a position of being a seat broker than an airline.

Could Air Canada afford the 35 777s and 20 787's they announced just outside of Canadian Chap 11? They were days from liquidation. The reason the whole deal fell apart was a disagreement between the old CP AIR pilots (who merged with Air Canada) and the Air Canada guys on who would fly what.... Sounds familiar.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

The 70-100 seat jets will be fought out by the contract carriers, probably a combination of CHQ/REP and Skywest/ASA after DAL declares bankrupcy and their scope gets tossed out (See USAIRWAYS). Maybe even for E190 products. DAL cannot afford to buy these airplanes, and DALPA WILL NOT be competitive for what these other companies can fly for. Remember, overall costs are the factor, not just crew pay. Managers, dispatchers, cleaners, rampers and mechanics all cost more at DAL than CHQ or SKW! DAL needs to, and probably wants to compete with the likes of Airtran out of ATL and Jet Blue out of NY and FLA, but cannot with 50 seat RJ's OR old, expensive MD80's and 737's.

IMHO

Grinstein said that there would be more 70 seaters with first class probably. Then he stated something about 737-700s flying to many new South American routes. He stated both Boeing and GE want to work with us. And, the expensive MD88s (you said MD80s) have all just gotten new interiors and bathrooms. They are not scheduled to leave anywhere until 2011 or 2012. And, Dalpa will fight for any 100 seaters if they ever do come up. USAir---the AWA side, is currently fighting against those 100 seaters at CHQ, since they know it is ridiculous. Too bad you do not.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[N2264J]

first of all, even if CMR and ASA had scope, do you believe it would be ironclad, or would there be economic or force majuer clauses just like there were in the mainline scope? I think you are fooling yourself to think your scope would have protected you anymore than mainline scope has protected us. Certainly not if BK is declared.

Try as you might to redirect the argument, your hypothetical misses the point. We were prevented by our own union from the opportunity to even attempt to protect ourselves from the serious hole in the mainline scope clause concerning "permitted aircraft." We were locked out. It's had the effect of driving this flying off the property and inducing a horrible whipsaw problem, courtesy of ALPA.

 

[General Lee]

Try as you might to redirect the argument, your hypothetical misses the point. We were prevented by our own union from the opportunity to even attempt to protect ourselves from the serious hole in the mainline scope clause concerning "permitted aircraft." We were locked out. It's had the effect of driving this flying off the property and inducing a horrible whipsaw problem, courtesy of ALPA.

Could you have "bought" scope against other regionals? Maybe. But, you went for the money.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[regionaltard]

And, Dalpa will fight for any 100 seaters if they ever do come up. USAir---the AWA side, is currently fighting against those 100 seaters at CHQ, since they know it is ridiculous. Too bad you do not.

Bye Bye--General Lee

And if they're willing to fly them for the third-world wages and bennies that are the byproduct of their tragic misunderstanding of Scope they will.....as long as someone doesn't underbid them. Welcome to the world you created......

 

[satpak77]

Then he stated something about 737-700s flying to many new South American routes.

Curious what these would be. Besides the major capital cities of South America, the other cities (Cali, Medellin, Chihuahua, etc) are flown by American or Continental themselves (non-codeshare) or their regional partners.

CAL prob has the most Mexico coverage and AA the most South America coverage

Wonder what "new market" Delta is going to tap into.

 

[michael707767]

Try as you might to redirect the argument, your hypothetical misses the point. We were prevented by our own union from the opportunity to even attempt to protect ourselves from the serious hole in the mainline scope clause concerning "permitted aircraft." We were locked out.

so you say. My sources say otherwise.

 

[michael707767]

Maybe even for E190 products. DAL cannot afford to buy these airplanes, and DALPA WILL NOT be competitive for what these other companies can fly for. Remember, overall costs are the factor, not just crew pay. Managers, dispatchers, cleaners, rampers and mechanics all cost more at DAL than CHQ or SKW! IMHO

first of all, you are right. Pilot costs are not the only issue. However, I do believe the Delta pilots will have no choice but to become competitive in our positions. But managers, dispatchers, cleaners, etc don't have to cost less than or equal too CHQ. They just have to be competitive with Airtran and JetBlue. If they cost more than those airlines, they are overpaid. We are all headed to a similar cost structure. The sooner everyone, from pilots to rampers, realize that, the better. Second, Delta will have to replace aircraft. Its like fuel really. Its one of our "raw" materials. You can't build cars without steel. You can't move furniture without trucks. And you can't fly passengers without airplanes. At some point you have to have aircraft to operate an airline. You can't make money if all you do is code share. Once Delta gets its overall cost structure in line, financing will become available. Plus, I suspect if Boeing is not willing to wheel and deal with Delta for new aircraft, Airbus will be willing. Or even Embraer. But Delta will get new aircraft.

 

[MedFlyer]

Could Air Canada afford the 35 777s and 20 787's they announced just outside of Canadian Chap 11? They were days from liquidation.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Not really a comparable situation as Air Canada has a near monopoly and the Canadian gov't would never have allowed them to liquidate.

But for more accurate comparisons...take a look at UAL and USAirways. Do you see them buying up lots of new planes? No. They've deferred deliveries for many, many years into the future. Even healthier carriers like AA aren't buying up planes. AA will take delivery of 2 777's and then nothing until 2010.

If AA can't afford planes for that long, what makes you think DL (a far weaker airline) can?

DL's credit rating is so poor that attractive financing just isn't going to happen. And a CH11 filing won't help the matter...DL will be viewed as a deadbeat. Why should Boeing cut a deal with DL for new 737's when more stable carriers like Airtran and Southwest are buying them up rapidly?

 

[Gregorio]

This is my first post here after lurking for six months or so. I've just got a plea from those of us on the slower side. All the acronyms that everyone is so fond of using here makes the threads really hard to follow. Some posts seem to have more acronyms than actual english words. Examples are DL, DAL, CAL, CMR, LCC, INTL, ML, JB, COEX, DCI, CVG, XJT, RJDC. I can figure out about half of them, but they still make it very hard to read a thread with any kind of comprehension. Equally bad is the abbreviating of aircraft types like 738. It took me about two months to figure out that this meant 737-800.

I'm a product of the mississippi educational system, and a Marine, so God knows I'm not qualified to give any english lessons. I'm just asking folks to take the extra second to type out the names so we dumbasses can follow.

Thanks

 

[skykid]

Once again MedFlyer is right on the money with this topic. Delta isn't going to be buying any aircraft anytime soon and has little in common with Air C.

NWA and Delta ARE going to shrink their domestic operation, either in Ch11 or not. Delta will have to do it out of ATL, and it will be a double digit percentage loss of seats. I doubt Delta is going to do this outside of Ch11.

I see two possible lines of thinking at Delta. Either their mgt figures they aren't going to survive a trip to bankruptcy, so they are going to fight tooth and nail to stay out, or they will go Ch11 in the next 6 weeks before the rules change.

Here's hoping the price of jet fuel takes I dive and I'm wrong!

 

[JoeMerchant]

Uh oh, someone is on his rant again.

JB is that you????

No, but JB does have some valid points. He tells it like it is, not necessarily the way ALPA wants to tell it. I like people who question authority - BOTH sides! Rumor has it some of the ASA MEC members are dissapointed with the recent elections over at DALPA. One of the status reps said "that DALPA is going back to the way it was". Is that really a surprise to you guys? Didn't JB warn you?

Joe

 

[chperplt]

Didn't UAL just buy some new airplanes in conjunction with exit financing from Airbus?