Delta New Hire Class

[Scrapdog]

They are both dream jobs for me and I don't think I can go wrong with either one. Also, I live within driving distance of NYC so commuting is not an issue.

What matters is career projections for someone hired this year. Contracts can change, pilot demographics can not.

Goggles - here's my 2 cents. I'm with CAL and glad to be here....while it's certainly not a "dream" job, it's a good job. A dream job for me is blowing sh*t up, going supersonic, yada, yada...but I digress.

In all seriousness, CAL is very strong now, and will be very strong in the future as long as the airline business continues to progress the way it is (barring any helacious events like 9/11, etc). They are continuouly hiring, and will be for the foreseeable future. They just made 22 million in the first quarter (I think DAL just lost 120 million??) and they've been out of bankruptcy for some time now. CAL was just named #1 airline of the year via Forbes and I will say that our customer service is top notch. And in '08, our contract is up for re-negotiation. And that is looking good now as well.

Will DAL probably emerge from BK and do well? Probably. Is CAL already doing well, and continously doing better by the day? You bet. A bird in the hand is better anyday than one in the bush...

 

[General Lee]

Goggles - here's my 2 cents. I'm with CAL and glad to be here....while it's certainly not a "dream" job, it's a good job. A dream job for me is blowing sh*t up, going supersonic, yada, yada...but I digress.

In all seriousness, CAL is very strong now, and will be very strong in the future as long as the airline business continues to progress the way it is (barring any helacious events like 9/11, etc). They are continuouly hiring, and will be for the foreseeable future. They just made 22 million in the first quarter (I think DAL just lost 120 million??) and they've been out of bankruptcy for some time now. CAL was just named #1 airline of the year via Forbes and I will say that our customer service is top notch. And in '08, our contract is up for re-negotiation. And that is looking good now as well.

Will DAL probably emerge from BK and do well? Probably. Is CAL already doing well, and continously doing better by the day? You bet. A bird in the hand is better anyday than one in the bush...

Thanks for that report. Goggles has to think about how many have just gotten on in front of him at CAL too. Delta, which will be very strong getting out (shrank debt from $17 billion to around $7.5 billion) and has a good plan with new leaders, will be growing too. Our fleet plan will not shrink, primarily because we have gotten rid of our older planes (all MD88s just got new leases for $200,000 less per month, so they will stay another 5 years minimum), whereas CAL still will dump the 735s and 733s), and we will be getting new airplanes too, just like CAL. We are in the beginning of a hiring wave, whereas CAL has hired 1200 in the past couple years, which means atleast 1200 more people at Captain before him. Also, you have to think about possible mergers if things go south for the industry again, and the current talk is NWA/DAL getting together, which would keep hubs and make us stronger. From what I have read, if NWA/DL get together, CAL and UAL would get together, and UAL still has $19 billion in debt, and hubs close to each other (IAD and EWR etc). You have to think about that stuff now. CAL bases also leave something to be desired. If he wanted to go West, it would be tough at CAL, wheras DL has options---LA and SLC (Park City is nice apparently).

I still think both airlines are great, and he should be happy he has one in the bag and another to possibly get.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[BID]

30 737s next year starting in Jan 08. 30 737s the following year as well. 25 787s starting in '09. These are firm orders.

It is true you will already have people hired in front of you, but we are still hiring many, just look at the retirement numbers. Plus we have fewer pilots on the seniority list, approx 1000 less than DAL. When you past the 4000 mark, at a company with 4900 pilots, in a year and a half, well that is pretty darn good!

The contract at CAL is awful, but I am confident that will change. Not too many options when it comes to domiciles at CAL, especially if you are a West Coast person. BUT I believe that will change as well.

Good luck with your choice, DAL is a great company and like other airlines there will be a couple of years to get healthy. You just don't want to be at the bottom of the list during the next industry downturn.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Thanks for that report. Goggles has to think about how many have just gotten on in front of him at CAL too.

We are in the beginning of a hiring wave, whereas CAL has hired 1200 in the past couple years, which means atleast 1200 more people at Captain before him.

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

It's not like surfing where you need to catch "the wave" before the other guy. (or 1200)

You have to look at firm orders and options going forward. And how much the airline is likely to grow. I don't know how the growth compares between CAL and DAL. But that is what I would focus on. Not the 1200.

Also, age 65 or not there are a ton of old dudes at CAL and very few at DAL. There will be more retirements at CAL.

Those who have been hired before you means nothing for your upgrade to widebody or Captain, by itself.

I'll say it again...Those who have been hired before you means nothing by itself.

Unless....it makes you feel like less of a man to be hired after someone else or like a rock star to be at the beginning....then I guess it does.

At DAL there are hundreds of mil leave dudes that will come in on top of you at some point before Captain. Not so at CAL.

Am I right in assuming you will beat up this post because I don't declare DAL the only true path to righteousness? Go ahead, I'm ready.

Regards,

FBJ

 

[TankerPuke]

I hear new hires are getting NYC and ATL on the Mad Dog...how bout seniority in SLC? Junior jet is still MD88 in SLC? Any new hires already moving in to SLC? So...SLC??? Good article about Delta on Yahoo finance today...

PUKE uke:

 

[doylehargraves]

Does anyone know when the first layoff will be??

 

[General Lee]

General,

It's not like surfing where you need to catch "the wave" before the other guy. (or 1200)

You have to look at firm orders and options going forward. And how much the airline is likely to grow. I don't know how the growth compares between CAL and DAL. But that is what I would focus on. Not the 1200.

Also, age 65 or not there are a ton of old dudes at CAL and very few at DAL. There will be more retirements at CAL.

Those who have been hired before you means nothing for your upgrade to widebody or Captain, by itself.

I'll say it again...Those who have been hired before you means nothing by itself.

Unless....it makes you feel like less of a man to be hired after someone else or like a rock star to be at the beginning....then I guess it does.

At DAL there are hundreds of mil leave dudes that will come in on top of you at some point before Captain. Not so at CAL.

Am I right in assuming you will beat up this post because I don't declare DAL the only true path to righteousness? Go ahead, I'm ready.

Regards,

FBJ

Well, you fail to state that CAL has the worst bases on the planet. I never thought there could be three armpits, but EWR, CLE, and IAH hit the mark. You fail to mention that you will be getting rid of some airplanes (737-300s and 735s), which will only be replaced by those 30 new 737s each year. Your pay is horrible the first 3 years, and a new contract will take awhile. Our workrules are great (never gave any of that up), and our pay is good---second year 738 is $75 an hour, vs 4th year for you. What is this about no company paid insurance for the first 6 months? That is ridiculous. And being in the back of a wave vs front of a hiring wave is important. If there is a downturn, then the bottom may go away, and being behind a large wave makes you the bottom. You also failed to mention what could happen is consolidation does occur. If there is another huge downturn, then NWA and DL will likely merge. The only other one that makes sense to combat the huge Asia/Europe/South American presence we would have is UAL/CAL. That would NOT be good for any of your junior pilots, not to mention the debt United still has.

You are right, we don't have a lot of retirements coming up, most of them are gone. But, any new airplanes will be growth, because we already got rid of our older planes, and you still have 735s and 733s that will go. We have orders for 737-700s, 777s, and we are getting 13-15 757ERs from AA starting in July at 2 per month. We can't announce other orders yet because we have one more week of BK (take a look at today's USAToday and see how we are doing), and after that we will anounce more (think 787s via a lessor). We are actively looking at 100 seaters also (our MD88 at 146 seats is the smallest plane we have currently)---and if we do get some expect junior pilots upgrading to Captain soon (we did that at Delta Express in 1996--we had 1 year Captains on the 737-200 because the rates were a little less than 767FO, and since our furloughed pilots from 1991-1993 were coming back most 767FOs were in their 8th or higher year and most didn't want to take a pay cut---but it was good for the junior pilots).

So, can you please debate me on: bases, pay in the first 3 years, planes you will be getting rid of, and why it wouldn't be good to be at the beginning of a hiring spree? We both will be getting new planes and new contracts are far away.

I still think it is good this guy Goggles has your airline in the bag and a chance to interview at mine. Good for him.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I hear new hires are getting NYC and ATL on the Mad Dog...how bout seniority in SLC? Junior jet is still MD88 in SLC? Any new hires already moving in to SLC? So...SLC??? Good article about Delta on Yahoo finance today...

PUKE uke:

You will likely get assigned the MD88 as a newhire, although some are getting the 737-800 in NYC (JFK, LGA, or EWR trips). That doesn't mean you will be there long. We are having bids every couple months and some newhires were awarded NYC 767ER INTL and ATL 757/767 DOM while in training. They still had to finish the MD88 training, but they didn't have to be on it long. Atleast they don't have to do the 727FE anymore. That one was not fun.

SLC MD88/MD90 (the only guys who fly the MD90) is not too hard to get. You could probably get it on the subsequent bid, and it would not be a new seat hold because you are allowed to bid from base to base on the same equipment without a new 2 year hold. The only change would be to do a 1 day 1 sim training event on the MD90. SLC 737-800 and SLC 757/767 are probably a couple years out for a newhire. LAX 757/767 is probably a year out. CVG is very senior and getting smaller. ATL and NYC are the most junior.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[RJAA]

While I cannot comment on pilot bases and pay, I do agree that no health insurance for the first six months is a complete BS and it is turning a lot of qualified inviduals away. However, Continental's future plan is still 5-6% growth. But in reality, that can be easily adjusted based on demand and what is going on in the industry in the near future. It is true that a fraction of B733s are nearing retirement but at the same time some of the newer B733s and B735s are getting winglets. The B735s are newer than some of Delta's MD88s. Some will continue to stay while it introduces more cost effective and efficient B739ERs and B738s. They well get the B787s by early 2009 but again B762s may stay. How much of them will be growth? It all depends but at least Continental is more flexible in fleet planning compared to others for the ups and downs in the near future. The current order could be for growth or replacement. If it makes sense to keep the "not so efficient" fleet to provide lift I'd bet they will for a while. It all sounds like a stable business plan to me. It all sounds dandy to me to go on a shopping spree for airplanes also but who know what can happen in the near future.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Thanks for the input, guys. As I said, domiciles are a non-issue for me because I live near NYC.

As far as growth goes, Kellner stated in the Q1 report that he would like to see a sustained 5-6% growth over a 10 year period (which 10 year period is unknown -- hopefully the next one.) http://www.continental.com/web/en-US/content/company/investor/docs/continental_10q_2007_q1.pdf

Delta's plans post-bankruptcy plans - especially fleet plans -- will be very interesting. In the meantime, everything is just speculation.

Consolidation worries me, but I think moving up the list as quickly as possible before consolidation happens would be ... well, a good thing.

First year pay/insurance at CAL would be rough, very very rough. But we're not in this career for one year, right? Where will I be better off at year 5, 10? That may be too long-term to plan for in this career. Plus, remember what economists say about where we all wind up in the long run.

I can't read a balance sheet very well. DL says their long term debt will be in the neighborhood of $7B. What is CAL's long-term debt (looks like $4.9B) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=CAL ?

 

[Pat Fabin]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. CAL sucks.

 

[anewunion]

If there is even a question, goto CAL.

 

[Howard Hughes]

Dont know if this will influence your decision (well technically you need the offer from Delta to have a decision) but the word from the Delta training dept is that classes are going from 25 a month to 40 a month starting in June.

One other thought, Delta had over 10,000 pilots prior to 911 but currently have about 6900. If they plan to build the international ops as aggressively as they have been and there is any plans to grow back to 10K plus (this is unknown) there will be alot more movement at Delta than Cal even with Cals many retirements. Food for thought.

 

[PCL_128]

Well, you fail to state that CAL has the worst bases on the planet. I never thought there could be three armpits, but EWR, CLE, and IAH hit the mark.

Sorry, General, but I've gotta defend our "honor" on this one. NWA has the worst bases, by far. Snow-town, Mo-town, and No-town. CAL can't even compete on this contest.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I'm not going to debate domiciles or pay.


Looks like CAL wants to grow 5-6% a year. At what percentage will Delta grow? If its more than 5-6% they win in the "wave" department. If its less, regardless of how many have been hired in the last 2 years, CAL will still have a bigger wave going forward.