AC,
No negativity here, just reality! I said hiring in 2012 at the earliest, not that they would! I also am assuming not everyone goes to 65, and that the company continues to encourage early retirements. A much more realistic hiring date is sometime in 2013.
Is that your opinion? I have only state mine where I have noted.
JAL as a skyteam partner is dead.
For now yes, but the future will have some interesting twists.
What do you think is more efficient, a 737-200 or a DC-9? I don't know the answer, but they probably are pretty close in cost accounting terms.
You are comparing two different times in the airlines history. I am sure that if we were merged prior to the 732 being put down the decisions rendered would be different. Given the fact of how our route structure works and the efficiency of it, the 9 no matter how old or inefficient plays a significant role. If/when it can be economically replaced it will be, but until then it will be used.
One thing you need to understand is the type of airline that the execs that are in power today envision. If they could go get a cheap 100 seat jet that did not have the acquisition costs of the current options they would. Problem is that as RA has stated a paid for DC-9 is a better option that a quasi-efficient 195 etc. The acquisition costs are great. Therefore, the nine will stay until they can find a way to take it out of the fleet and not leave a gaping hole. That could be with a next gen narrow body, scope concessions, or a viable jet like the MD-90. They have options.
I for one am glad that they are looking at a mid term replacement for the narrow body fleet. We need to do that or we will be placing ourselves nicely behind the eight ball.
Don't they always replace interiors and repaint planes before they park them..... 727's, MD-11's, etc... are good examples. You can't have a product that is not uniform! How many newly painted 767's have been sitting in the desert lately? I'm sure they re-value the asset as they please, and then use depreciation to their advantage.
Yes, and no. Again look for the real reason why. Parked, not cut up. Those jets need a Heavy Check, and are getting them in short order. They are cycling them out of MZJ and VCV on an as needed basis.
Spending that kind of money on a 744 makes sense if it will be here for the next five years. That matches what they are saying.
FWIW, at no time in the history of Delta have there been as many aircraft MOD lines going as we do now.
Do they really know the 2011 system schedule yet? if they do, are they going to tell you that CVG is shut, or just say that staffing will be tight as they pull the wool over your eyes.
I beleive (Insert my opinion after drawing my own conclusions on what I have been told) is that they know what they will be doing with the entire CVG base, not just the ER. Of course they will not drop the bomb on them until it is time. They want it to work, but the is a plan and they will execute it. It is just like DFW. They knew what they were going to do if numbers did not hit X. I knew with fairly good certainty DFW was closing at least six months prior to the Sept 2004 press conference.
Point is that, of course they are not going to announce their two year plan to the world. That give the competition a chance to react. Duh.
To directly answer your question. Exact, no, a block hr range, yes. A range that they will set staffing on with a 5 percent flex either way? yes. Will it get narrowed to a two percent flex later this winter? maybe. The design block hr plan for flex in both directions. It is called prudence. All the previous data stated that block hrs for summer 2011 would be 2-3% (at a min) higher than this year. What that equates to is a pilot shortfall at a min of the mirror percentage. We will be negatively staffed for this summer and any added block hrs will mean they need to hire. Simply put. We are looking at block hrs not ASM's though they will quote those too.
Can it change? Yes, has it in the past? yes, but these are the best estimates they are using going forward. They use these to plan hiring which in our case takes at least one entitlement to create the positions for the new pilots, and six months of getting the applications screened, interviews, run through indoc, aircraft training, IOE and then on to the line. We had four month backups on IOE in late 2007 and 2008. It is better to trickle that in that force it in to a static pipeline.
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We are pilots, they will tell us anything!!! Even pilot managers do this, and in general, they do not even have the full story![/QUOTE]
The fourth floor is good for a lot of things, but when looking two plus years out there are better areas to focus on. Watch their feet. We need to make the next few years work 100% in our favor as the rest of the industry tries to consolidate. To do that, it will not be business as usual.
If they opt for the way you think things will go, they will have passed on an amazing opportunity that they see. Of course the choice is their to make.
