Delta Connection EMB175s

[ACL65PILOT]

There is no cheap way to do an early out for a South guy. It will be offered to all, but it will target a specific group.

 

[rf285]

I'm talking about the f-word.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

It is a real possibility. It will come when and where it is needed. If they do it, it is for survival. We have bigger fish to fry and than do an orderly displacement to furlough.
Trust me, it could get real bad.

 

[JoeMerchant]

It is a real possibility. It will come when and where it is needed. If they do it, it is for survival. We have bigger fish to fry and than do an orderly displacement to furlough.
Trust me, it could get real bad.

It can't be that bad ACL....You have been telling us ASA and CMR folks that a flowthrough is a good deal because of all the movement that is coming.....Surely you aren't worried....Why would you try and sell a flowthrough?

 

[Monster Buck]

ACl sometimes you crack me up. The swine flu uproar is nothing more than a joke. More people died in the us today from j walking at the wrong time. More sensationalism from the press. It will die and pass....no one in the company is talking about furloughing anyone over this. And no its not going to get bad....quit adding fuel to the imaginary fire.

 

[~~~^~~~]

It is a real possibility. It will come when and where it is needed. If they do it, it is for survival. We have bigger fish to fry and than do an orderly displacement to furlough.
Trust me, it could get real bad.

They'd either have to go out of order, or go off one side of the list and back fill the DC9's with RJ's.

If they have gone from assuring a profit for the year to "survival" that's one heck of a change.

 

[Superpilot92]

They'd either have to go out of order, or go off one side of the list and back fill the DC9's with RJ's.

If they have gone from assuring a profit for the year to "survival" that's one heck of a change.

I agree, plus they have the flow back and other triggers that come along with the F-word. Thats alot of cause and effect over media fear mongering. This "flu" has nothing on the real flu that we all have experienced at one point or the other. Mexico is reporting a plateau in the number of cases already and its shown itself not to be much more than a couple days of flu symptoms. Also summer is approaching which typically kills off these sort of viruses.

Back to putting my fingers in my ears. *lalalalalalalalala*

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Super fear is what will hurt us the most. People just love to freak out. That is something that no industry can fight against.

FIN I agree, but as stated above fear is what we are fighting against, not rational thought.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

They'd either have to go out of order, or go off one side of the list and back fill the DC9's with RJ's.

If they have gone from assuring a profit for the year to "survival" that's one heck of a change.

Before this Flu epidemic. I do not think that any predictions and or forecast could have come up with this one. Simply put all bets are off.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

ACl sometimes you crack me up. The swine flu uproar is nothing more than a joke. More people died in the us today from j walking at the wrong time. More sensationalism from the press. It will die and pass....no one in the company is talking about furloughing anyone over this. And no its not going to get bad....quit adding fuel to the imaginary fire.

I am not disagreeing. I think it is overblown. Way over blown. We have seen some people make reservation changes, but not enough to cause any major issues. I stated they were being conservative in their approach. I do not think that is adding fuel to the fire. (Just repeating what I heard buddy)

 

[Fly4hire]

...deleted...

 

[Fly4hire]

ACl sometimes you crack me up. The swine flu uproar is nothing more than a joke. More people died in the us today from j walking at the wrong time. More sensationalism from the press. It will die and pass....no one in the company is talking about furloughing anyone over this. And no its not going to get bad....quit adding fuel to the imaginary fire.

I think ACL is gaming possible outcomes dependent on how bad this gets. I have no doubt management is. It might amount to nothing more than a large number of regular seasonal flu type illnesses. Finger crossed.

Some history lessons are in order - even without the Avian flu going human to human, a flu strain with the virulence of the 1918 Spanish Flu would cause global economy to grind to a crawl in a matter of months.

In the Spanish Flu healthy adults woke up in the morning feeling fine and were dead by evening. Whole communities were wiped out. Mortality was close to 20%. Estimates between 20,000,000 and 100,000,000 killed with a much less mobile society and a world population far less than today.

This is not at what we are looking at so far. OTOH it would be foolish not to consider what would happen should it develop into something like that. All bets are off at that point.

Of course sick calls and mortality among pilots might be self correcting reference any measures that need to be taken.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Had to put that last part in Fyl4!

 

[Voice Of Reason]

What would prompt people to take early outs now, when it seemed like they wouldn't leave earlier in the merger? NetJets seems pretty proud of their package. (Quick download it before they put it back to password protected). If they can get people to actually take it (which there I doubt) it would be a coup...there seem to be plenty of options laid out...but in this economy...well anyway, ideas there (for the moment until they take it down again) that may help your union make things enticing.
http://www.njasap.com/jpmc/index.html
http://www.njasap.com/jpmc/pdf/jpmc_042009.pdf
Guys at DL/NW that are very senior may be in more of a position to put these ideas to use than at the fracs.

There is no cheap way to do an early out for a South guy. It will be offered to all, but it will target a specific group.

Are your guys also looking at bigger picture packages, such as voluntary leaves during the winter, or only targeting early outs for senior guys? I would think a wider net would be more useful in mitigating any potential for furloughs...there are people at any end of the seniority list that have other businesses/other things going on that might enable them to voluntarily leave during your slower winter "overstaffed" time. Then perhaps, when thing pick up, even hiring?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I know that LOA's have been looked at. I know a few that would take them.
As one very famous furloughee on here pointed out, in 2001 they offered LOA's and about 50 took them, so they do not see them as that successful.

Hiring is possible next year. We will see how this new attack on the industry works out of the next few months.