Delta Connection EMB175s

[~~~^~~~]

Being in a Boy Band gets more chicks than "airline pilot."

 

[NuGuy]

I think ACL is gaming possible outcomes dependent on how bad this gets. I have no doubt management is. It might amount to nothing more than a large number of regular seasonal flu type illnesses. Finger crossed.

Some history lessons are in order - even without the Avian flu going human to human, a flu strain with the virulence of the 1918 Spanish Flu would cause global economy to grind to a crawl in a matter of months.

In the Spanish Flu healthy adults woke up in the morning feeling fine and were dead by evening. Whole communities were wiped out. Mortality was close to 20%. Estimates between 20,000,000 and 100,000,000 killed with a much less mobile society and a world population far less than today.

This is not at what we are looking at so far. OTOH it would be foolish not to consider what would happen should it develop into something like that. All bets are off at that point.

Of course sick calls and mortality among pilots might be self correcting reference any measures that need to be taken.

Heyas F4H,

If we got a REAL influenza, like the Spanish Flu strain, people would quickly lose their bearings in this country.

Most of the third world is essentially unchanged from the turn of the last century. Pain, disease, starvation, death, all in large numbers. A bad flu bug with a high mortality rate is just another day in the life.

In this country, people lose their minds over a bus wreck that kills 10 people or a child that falls down a sewer pipe. Sad, to be sure, but in the big scheme of things, hardly a blip. Even 9/11 was a distant event, only watched on TV for most people. It made you angry, but your person was still relatively safe in East Butthole, Minnesota.

OTOH, with a BAD influenza, where 1 in 5 (or heck, even 1 in 10) of the people YOU KNOW, in YOUR home town start dropping, then it becomes personal. This country is woefully unprepared for a catastrophe on such a personal level. Anything on a level even remotely similar to the Spanish Flu is unthinkable.

Everyone is accustomed to believing that they will receive only top notch medical care. If something like this got pumped up and went the distance, most hospitals would be QUICKLY overwhelmed. Pumped up by the inevitable media frenzy...it becomes a terrible thing to contemplate.

This doesn't even look at the economic effects. The Spanish Flu affected the most healthy, productive part of society. Lose %10-20 overall, but %30-40 of the productive work force INCLUDING a chunk of your health care workers, and you are FUXORED for a long time. Not armageddon, but a VAST retrenchment in the economy, from which would take at least a decade to recover.

JMHO...YMMV....

Nu

 

[FBN0223]

Got all I need for my furlough Gig audition:

G C D C
Check it out gas prices going up sky high
G C D C
Ditch my used sub-compack for a 2 wheel drive
G C D C
Now I'm rolling eco friendly But I still look bad
G C
When the bike store saw my credit
D C
They said this is all they had

I'm singin'
G C D C G
C D C
F to the R to the E to the E to the C to the R to the E D I T
G C D C
RE to the PORT to the dot to the com
G C D C
Come on everybody grab your bikes and sing along
[its easy]

Either that, or spokesman for Enzyte.

Hey, also the cords for Neil Diamond's "Cherry Cherry".
Cool!! I think?!

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

I think every pop song ever written is GCD.... and watch out for that sneaky Em!

 

[~~~^~~~]

Well, at least every Buffett and Tom Petty tune. Throw in Am and you got Lynyrd Skynyrd. But I'm convinced Dave Matthews has a sixth digit.

Why can't there be more Mark Knopflers and fewer Myley Cyrus's?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I know that LOA's have been looked at. I know a few that would take them.
As one very famous furloughee on here pointed out, in 2001 they offered LOA's and about 50 took them, so they do not see them as that successful.

Hiring is possible next year. We will see how this new attack on the industry works out of the next few months.

How about fuel? How is Delta protected this summer in case there is a repeat of last summer's skyrocketing prices? (Looks like prices are already making a small attempt to test the waters in heading that direction by summer). Are they hedged at a particular price?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

With over 5 billion in the bank, I am sure that if fuel goes back up, we will have an effective hedge in place that will equate to the mid to upper 50's.

 

[General Lee]

How about fuel? How is Delta protected this summer in case there is a repeat of last summer's skyrocketing prices? (Looks like prices are already making a small attempt to test the waters in heading that direction by summer). Are they hedged at a particular price?

I think we have learned our lesson a bit on hedging, but of course last Summer no one really thought that oil was going to drop $100 a barrel within 6 months. I have heard our Q1 numbers (the $743 million loss) will be the worst quarter this year with the hedges, and it gets better for us as the year progresses. I have heard that we have hedged a good chunk at the lower numbers lately, (maybe 30%) and that is probably a prudent thing to do. Could oil go to single digit numbers? I doubt it, but we probably thought the same thing last Summer at $140 a barrel.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[JumpersAway]

Oil is not going to get much cheaper than it is now- ever.............OPEC will cut, cut, cut some more, in order to get it around 70 a barrel.

 

[MCOE175]

I think we have learned our lesson a bit on hedging, but of course last Summer no one really thought that oil was going to drop $100 a barrel within 6 months. I have heard our Q1 numbers (the $743 million loss) will be the worst quarter this year with the hedges, and it gets better for us as the year progresses. I have heard that we have hedged a good chunk at the lower numbers lately, (maybe 30%) and that is probably a prudent thing to do. Could oil go to single digit numbers? I doubt it, but we probably thought the same thing last Summer at $140 a barrel.

Bye Bye--General Lee

What percentage and how far out can DAL hedge do to their credit rating?
Aren't they in the same boat as US because of BK?

 

[Sinca3]

I've heard we can and have hedge through 2012....

 

[MCOE175]

Maybe DAL can hedge that far out but at what percentage... I know that their credit rating will not allow a high percentage... SWA with their rating can hedge 80% or more. They are the only ones that can do that.

 

[FBN0223]

Maybe DAL can hedge that far out but at what percentage... I know that their credit rating will not allow a high percentage... SWA with their rating can hedge 80% or more. They are the only ones that can do that.

Hedging fuel has been a bad gamble for many airlines recently. So been the only airline that can hedge 80% or more is really not an advantage unless you feel lucky.