Well, let's just connect some dots....I bet you can come up with others, but I can think of these right off the top of my head.
. Hansell is still the accidental CEO after two years. His only expertise is in labor law. There's been plenty of time to replace him since Sokol's departure, but he hasn't been replaced. It is reasonable to think that B-H wants his expertise in place.
. Hansell could have extended the present contract for virtually "no cost" and ensured a stable work force for several more years. He didn't. Not because he wanted to give us more, but because he wants us to have less.
. None of the unions at NetJets have gotten a contract despite years of effort. Hansell has not made a single significant concession to organized labor. He has stuck with his "pillars". It is reasonable to think that he will stick with them to the end of the negotiating process.
. Hansell's "pillars" will not even be passed onto the membership by the union. Hansell knows this. No one expects labor to accept concessions during times of profit. Labor is faced with "take it, or go to self help". For Hansell, self-help = lockout.
. Even though NetJets can handle a lot of flights without sell-offs, there are light days where there are lots of sell-offs. Because NetJets is hiring, there is no restriction on sell-offs and we're seeing a large number. NetJets is lining up and fattening "alternate lift" for a time when needed.
. The NetJets customers are being "accustomed" to non-NetJets operators operating their flights through the large number of sell-offs.
. Notice how many ACP's are floating around all of a sudden? Ever wonder why these useless individuals are at all the hubs instead of in cockpits helping with our pilot shortage? Hansell's team is hoping these individuals will be "management pilots" during the strike/lockout.
Okay, I have no idea how this will play out, but it sure looks like Hansell is going to do his best to bust organized labor. If I'm wrong and we get a juicy contract, I'm happy. However, if I'm right and we are not mentally, financially, strategically prepared for a lockout, we don't have a chance.
Let's hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
How do we plan for a lockout?
Sticking our heads in the sand and saying "it can't happen" isn't a plan.
On an individual basis, get your financial house in order, shop for alternative health insurance and get those job applications out there. You don't want to be the last guy in line for a "new job".