BREAKING NEWS about UAL

[Sonny Crockett]

...Bump

 

[Sonny Crockett]

I know there were a bunch of ex-United guys at JetBlue that left and went back to United.

I bet there kickin themselves in the A$$ about now!

Maybe and maybe not!

JetBLue is not a pretty picture right now either.

 

[bluefin]

I know there were a bunch of ex-United guys at JetBlue that left and went back to United.

I bet there kickin themselves in the A$$ about now!

Remember, a year ago we were all making(airlines) a ton of money. At UAL they were gearing up to hire 600+ pilots, they were interviewing captains for LCA's. When these pilots made the decision to go to UAL, things were looking good. Can't blame them or call them names.

 

[donvag]

Maybe and maybe not!

JetBLue is not a pretty picture right now either.

But we are in a better position than most if not all legacy carriers.

 

[Andy]

But we are in a better position than most if not all legacy carriers.

JetBlue? In better shape than most/all legacies? You're kidding, right? Or do you live on De Nile (not just a river)?

Barger was extremely smart to do the $160M death spiral bond last month. It'll buy the company a LITTLE time.
However, JBLU has traditionally financed on the short end of the yield curve and rolled over their debt on a continual basis. The problem with this is that the cost of funds on the short end of the curve have increased considerably this year. And they're currently spiking again, as the credit markets appear that they will be locking up again.
I would suggest that you take a look at JBLU's 10Q and see how much debt is due for the balance of this year. You will quickly discover that JBLU's cash on hand and the $160M bond offering will fall short of outlays required to service JBLU's debt.
There's a reason why JBLU's been selling aircraft and it's not a favorable one for JBLU's long term health.

 

[meanstreak]

Somebody keeps telling me Jetblue has a $600 million balloon payment coming up this year. Can someone explain what this is, and when or if it's due.

 

[brainhurts]

JetBlue? In better shape than most/all legacies? You're kidding, right? Or do you live on De Nile (not just a river)?

Barger was extremely smart to do the $160M death spiral bond last month. It'll buy the company a LITTLE time.
However, JBLU has traditionally financed on the short end of the yield curve and rolled over their debt on a continual basis. The problem with this is that the cost of funds on the short end of the curve have increased considerably this year. And they're currently spiking again, as the credit markets appear that they will be locking up again.
I would suggest that you take a look at JBLU's 10Q and see how much debt is due for the balance of this year. You will quickly discover that JBLU's cash on hand and the $160M bond offering will fall short of outlays required to service JBLU's debt.
There's a reason why JBLU's been selling aircraft and it's not a favorable one for JBLU's long term health.

Andy,
He is talking in general terms referencing UAL, Frontier, Spirit, Airtran, US Air etc. I know you have done a lot of research and you are a smart guy, but if you are so smart, why did you not get hired by someone else like SWA or Fedex/UPS when you were furloughed by United last time? Everyone was hiring, and you seem to believe you have a crystal ball, so why can't people make generalizations about their airline without you jumping in with your crystal ball which appears to have a blind spot in it?

 

[ATR-DRIVR]

JetBlue? In better shape than most/all legacies? You're kidding, right? Or do you live on De Nile (not just a river)?

Barger was extremely smart to do the $160M death spiral bond last month. It'll buy the company a LITTLE time.
However, JBLU has traditionally financed on the short end of the yield curve and rolled over their debt on a continual basis. The problem with this is that the cost of funds on the short end of the curve have increased considerably this year. And they're currently spiking again, as the credit markets appear that they will be locking up again.
I would suggest that you take a look at JBLU's 10Q and see how much debt is due for the balance of this year. You will quickly discover that JBLU's cash on hand and the $160M bond offering will fall short of outlays required to service JBLU's debt.
There's a reason why JBLU's been selling aircraft and it's not a favorable one for JBLU's long term health.[/quote]

So how is UAL's?

 

[greenbayfan]

I really don't think Andy knows what he's talking about. JBLU sold older aircraft at a profit and took delivery of new aircraft that will incur less maint. expenses. This is all a way of trimming the growth plans and simultaneously lowering costs. It has nothing to do with short term debt....

 

[Ualexpress]

Is that a joke? You're not serious are you? Are there guys out there that left NetJets to go to United in its current form? To each his own, but I'd be shocked to see that if true.

Yep. I knew one guy personally. I also know some from Jetblue and AirTran that went back.

 

[johnboy99]

Somebody keeps telling me Jetblue has a $600 million balloon payment coming up this year. Can someone explain what this is, and when or if it's due.

Don't know alot about reading our 10K that would be a question for Commander Clueless AKA Andy. I know we have a $175 million note due next month and somewhere I read the next big payment comes due in 2010 for about $200-250 million I cannot find the email to verify it. You don't have to finish this race with oil prices in first place. You just have to finish ahead of the weakest link which appears like it could be United. Tilton could take a few lessons from Mr. Barger on how to run an airline.

 

[pilotgolfer]

Yep. I knew one guy personally. I also know some from Jetblue and AirTran that went back.

Don't jump to the conclusion that people left JBLU, Airtran, NetJets etc because they thought UAL was a better opportunity, more stable, and so on and so forth.

Personally, I left JBLU to eliminate my commute. I liked working there and I knew there was a ton of risk in going to UAL. I thought a 30 minute drive to work was worth it. Many of the other people that either took recall to United or went as new hires were all from the Chicago area. I know a NetJet guy that was in the class behind me and a JetBlue 190 Capt that wanted to be based in ORD.

I took a gamble and it looks like its not going to pay off in the short term. Check back in a few years and I'll let you know if it was worth it.

 

[MountainFreak]

I don't know Andy, but he has been very close in most of his predictions/analysis. Sometimes a little too pesimistic maybe, but I'll believe him before all the "it can't happen to me" silliness I read here.

And he has never pulled any punches as to United's position. He calls them as he sees them.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Don't jump to the conclusion that people left JBLU, Airtran, NetJets etc because they thought UAL was a better opportunity, more stable, and so on and so forth.

Who the hell left NJA for UAL in the last several years?!?!?

None that I know of.

 

[CA1900]

Are there guys out there that left NetJets to go to United in its current form?

I haven't heard that, but it wouldn't surprise me. Hell, we had guys leave NetJets to go to Skybus! I guess if you really want to fly a big jet, you'll take the risk, but it's an awfully big one right now.

 

[contrail67]

Don't jump to the conclusion that people left JBLU, Airtran, NetJets etc because they thought UAL was a better opportunity, more stable, and so on and so forth.

Personally, I left JBLU to eliminate my commute. I liked working there and I knew there was a ton of risk in going to UAL. I thought a 30 minute drive to work was worth it. Many of the other people that either took recall to United or went as new hires were all from the Chicago area. I know a NetJet guy that was in the class behind me and a JetBlue 190 Capt that wanted to be based in ORD.

I took a gamble and it looks like its not going to pay off in the short term. Check back in a few years and I'll let you know if it was worth it.

Depending on your age it will pay off in the long run....what so many people on this board don't know is that parking the aircraft is based on them negotiating new lease terms....says right in the company news launch....this small sentence may be bigger than you think.

 

[contrail67]

Who the hell left NJA for UAL in the last several years?!?!?

None that I know of.

I know of several since UAL was hiring last summer.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Depending on your age it will pay off in the long run....what so many people on this board don't know is that parking the aircraft is based on them negotiating new lease terms....says right in the company news launch....this small sentence may be bigger than you think.

Sure about that?

 

[pilotgolfer]

Depending on your age it will pay off in the long run....what so many people on this board don't know is that parking the aircraft is based on them negotiating new lease terms....says right in the company news launch....this small sentence may be bigger than you think.

I'm no brain like "Andy", but I don't think United has any leverage to re-negotiate anything. They've already used the BK process to the max extent possible. I think they know if they enter Chapter 11 that its game over. Nobody in their right mind would give them the financing to emerge from BK. It becomes a hollow threat to use the BK process again. The pilot concession stand is closed so we'll see what their next move is.

I think CAL tried to re-negotiate their leases and were basically told that they were out of luck unless a BK judge was going to enforce it.

There are too many moving parts to this puzzle to make any predictions...so I think I'll have another beer. I'm gonna go watch the Blue Angels tomorrow in Ocean City and build sand castles with my boys. Tilton and Tague can't screw that up for me...oh yea...don't forget that Mega Millions ticket for tonight!

 

[Andy]

Don't know alot about reading our 10K that would be a question for Commander Clueless AKA Andy. I know we have a $175 million note due next month and somewhere I read the next big payment comes due in 2010 for about $200-250 million I cannot find the email to verify it. You don't have to finish this race with oil prices in first place. You just have to finish ahead of the weakest link which appears like it could be United. Tilton could take a few lessons from Mr. Barger on how to run an airline.

I've been absent from the board for the last couple of days. A bit sensitive, aren't we? Here's a link from JetBlue's website to the latest 10Q: http://investor.jetblue.com/phoenix...yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9NTYyMTMzMSZhdHRhY2g9T04=

I call your attention to page 10. According to the chart, as of 31 Mar 08, JBLU had payments of $1.247B due for the balance of 2008. Those payments are for Long-term debt and capital lease obligations, Lease commitments, Flight equipment obligations, Short-term borrowings, and Financing obligations and other.
I would suggest that whatever e-mail you have is in direct conflict with the 10Q that JBLU filed with the SEC.