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ASA In Five Years? Or Even 2.5 Years?

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JoeMerchant said:
Darn right it could happen to me. I see it taking 10 years or so to get to that point at which time I'll be ready to retire if necessary....I'm not being selfish, I'm pointing out that the junior folks will be hurt a lot more than us senior lifers at this point. If I was being selfish, I would just sit back and watch the slow sinking of the Titanic...

The ones who will get hurt the most are actually the ones who are trying to move on....Unless you can check one of the special "boxes", you need to upgrade and get PIC time...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the condescending attitude but no need to look down your nose at me, I'm not an First Officer (I hope you don't treat your FO's like your comment might suggest) and I have more than a thousand hours PIC so I'll move on when the time comes.

My hope is that when the retirements kick in (and they will, it's only a matter of time) and the Majors start to hire away all the regional pilots who want to go, you'll be left flying for regional pay while all those First Officers you thought you were better than upgrade, move to the majors and make double the pay you do.
 
Makes me very happy that I did not participate in that video they were making in the lounge a few weeks ago for recruiting. On second thought, I'd like to do it now, but with my script, not theirs.

I honestly think we will continue to shrink. But, I also think other regionals will shrink too. Not enough pilots out there. I think there is supply for a year. Then there will be a network-redefining shortage for a couple of years. After that, the word will be out and the market will begin correcting. My deep down hope is that the regional industry disappears. Our inability to hire will force resources (pilots) into larger aircraft with less frequency. So long as mainline holds the line on scope and we continue to increase costs, it makes better business case to stop farming out the lift and operate the big, newest gen RJ's at mainline.

ps. According to APC, Gojet has 250 pilots currently. 12 jets will require 120 or so new pilots. Thats 50% expansion in 6 months. I would not be surprised if we hold on to a few until they get it together.
 
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ASACRJFlyer said:
Thanks for the condescending attitude but no need to look down your nose at me, I'm not an First Officer (I hope you don't treat your FO's like your comment might suggest) and I have more than a thousand hours PIC so I'll move on when the time comes.

My hope is that when the retirements kick in (and they will, it's only a matter of time) and the Majors start to hire away all the regional pilots who want to go, you'll be left flying for regional pay while all those First Officers you thought you were better than upgrade, move to the majors and make double the pay you do.
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Reading comprehension isn't your strong point is it? How did I "look down my nose at you"? When did I say you are a "first officer"? Even if I did, which I didn't why is that "looking down my nose"? I simply said, that junior pilots are going to be hurt more than older "lifers"...I also said that it is FOs, which happen to be junior, that need to upgrade to be more marketable to leave.

I'm all for people leaving...I hope you leave soon...Your ability to read however is worrying me that you may be stuck here...That isn't good for either of us...
 
JoeMerchant said:
Reading comprehension isn't your strong point is it? How did I "look down my nose at you"? When did I say you are a "first officer"? Even if I did, which I didn't why is that "looking down my nose"? I simply said, that junior pilots are going to be hurt more than older "lifers"...I also said that it is FOs, which happen to be junior, that need to upgrade to be more marketable to leave.

I'm all for people leaving...I hope you leave soon...Your ability to read however is worrying me that you may be stuck here...That isn't good for either of us...
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The TPIC requirement is bogus unless you're headed to the military flying club of FedEx. A number of our F/O's that have less that 2-3k TOTAL and the only PIC they have is on their multi engine checkride, let alone anything turbine have gotten hired at big D. The TPIC requirement will be out the window across the board if the majors continue to operate at the size they are now and cannot fill classes. That being said, if ASA shrinks so much they guys with 12-13 years are downgraded or even furloughed, what are you going to do? Start over on the bottom? Go on a pro shuffleboard tourney?? National seniority list discussions aside, the system is the way it is, and there's not a damn thing we're going to do the change it. Despite how much we may want to.

The younger group, specifically, those that were hired at DL were hired because they were not going to go anywhere else other than DL. They can give DL 20-30 years worth of flying? It would be highly doubtful that they majors desire candidates that are 50+. I'm not saying I endorse that philosophy, but it seems that the latest hires have not fit that profile.

Your argument seems to indicate that the younger group will be the most hurt. I respectfully disagree.
 
JoeMerchant said:
Darn right it could happen to me. I see it taking 10 years or so to get to that point at which time I'll be ready to retire if necessary....I'm not being selfish, I'm pointing out that the junior folks will be hurt a lot more than us senior lifers at this point. If I was being selfish, I would just sit back and watch the slow sinking of the Titanic...

The ones who will get hurt the most are actually the ones who are trying to move on....Unless you can check one of the special "boxes", you need to upgrade and get PIC time...



Reading comprehension isn't your strong point is it? How did I "look down my nose at you"? When did I say you are a "first officer"? Even if I did, which I didn't why is that "looking down my nose"? I simply said, that junior pilots are going to be hurt more than older "lifers"...I also said that it is FOs, which happen to be junior, that need to upgrade to be more marketable to leave.

I'm all for people leaving...I hope you leave soon...Your ability to read however is worrying me that you may be stuck here...That isn't good for either of us...
Click to expand...

You don't need to worry about my reading comprehension (got that four year "box" checked and read perfectly well, thank you), it's what you imply with your tone and attitude that is condescending.

Speaking of your "special boxes" checked remark, that comment has hints of racism/sexism to it. I assume you're implying that if you're a woman or a minority, you don't need to worry about an upgrade, you're already guaranteed a spot at the Majors. What's wrong, did you watch one to many women get hired on at the Majors while you were stuck here at ASA for whatever reason?

It sounds to me like you were too afraid or just unable to get past an interview at a Major, so now you're in your mid to late forties trying to tell yourself you made the right decision by staying at the regional level. The problem is that you can see that the regionals are in trouble AGAIN and when they can't hire any more pilots to keep growing and the pilots at airlines get too old/senior/expensive like you, the regionals will shrink and die just like Comair is in the process of doing.

By the way, you don't need to worry about me being stuck here either. I'm smart enough to have more than one back up plan to this career and if ASA were to close it's doors tomorrow, I'd be perfectly fine. Can you say the same?
 
YES IT IS! We can't staff for anything! This happened because more people would rather be pseudo-scabs at Gauxjitz than fly for EnsureJet. It probably has more to do with ASA failing hard at hiring. Oh, and 50 seat scope at UniCal probably has that goat rimming bitch Hulas scared.
 
Joe it would be better if you did not post in this thread. Thanks for participating though.
 
What a bunch of cowards. We lost some airplanes and people are talking about pay cuts and capping seniority. No wonder this industry has gone to hell.

You people must be very proud of your paychecks.
 
Max Q said:
What a bunch of cowards. We lost some airplanes and people are talking about pay cuts and capping seniority. No wonder this industry has gone to hell.

You people must be very proud of your paychecks.
Click to expand...


Win. Just plain FULL of WIN.

This is the only post of the last few days that has any wisdom at all.

Thank you, sir, for a dose of reality.
 
CFI2766 said:
Win. Just plain FULL of WIN.

This is the only post of the last few days that has any wisdom at all.

Thank you, sir, for a dose of reality.
Click to expand...

Dose of reality is there is no future for ASA, and their is no paycut that will save us from this fate. We might as well get as much pay as we can while the ship sinks...
 
777forever said:
Dose of reality is there is no future for ASA, and their is no paycut that will save us from this fate. We might as well get as much pay as we can while the ship sinks...
Click to expand...

No pay cut will save us? Is this really how narrow minded the group is? The total cost goes well beyond employee compensation here. I'd be frustrated my Air Mekong class got cut too, but the sky isn't falling...
 
Cpt Oveur said:
No pay cut will save us? Is this really how narrow minded the group is? The total cost goes well beyond employee compensation here. I'd be frustrated my Air Mekong class got cut too, but the sky isn't falling...
Click to expand...

When ATL gets cut even more by MEM and DTW 200 base openings, and XJT loses 27 planes in APR, things will get pretty interesting around here
 
777forever said:
When ATL gets cut even more by MEM and DTW 200 base openings, and XJT loses 27 planes in APR, things will get pretty interesting around here
Click to expand...

No doubt things are getting interesting. Clearly, any domicile opening will come at the expense of reducing current base staffing levels, and none of that should come as a surprise or a with fear...
 
Southwest entering the Atlanta market is driving the shuffle. Delta wants its ducks in a row so they can compete aggresively head to head with WN.
 
ASApuppy said:
Makes me very happy that I did not participate in that video they were making in the lounge a few weeks ago for recruiting. On second thought, I'd like to do it now, but with my script, not theirs.

I honestly think we will continue to shrink. But, I also think other regionals will shrink too. Not enough pilots out there. I think there is supply for a year. Then there will be a network-redefining shortage for a couple of years. After that, the word will be out and the market will begin correcting. My deep down hope is that the regional industry disappears. Our inability to hire will force resources (pilots) into larger aircraft with less frequency. So long as mainline holds the line on scope and we continue to increase costs, it makes better business case to stop farming out the lift and operate the big, newest gen RJ's at mainline.
Click to expand...
While I agree that all the regionals will be shrinking, there is no way that mainline will ever beat regional costs. It is a fantasy to believe that you're going to have much better pay and benefits at a major, and yet be cheaper than some start-up minimum-wage-paying regional.

For a little while I thought Delta had learned its lesson with low quality (Mesa), but it appears the race to the bottom has resumed. As long as the industry has two tiers of pilot pay, some pilots will be willing to work for nothing at the bottom tier, in hopes of making it quickly to the top tier. And you can't compete against someone who doesn't care how little he makes.
 
JustaNumber said:
While I agree that all the regionals will be shrinking, there is no way that mainline will ever beat regional costs. It is a fantasy to believe that you're going to have much better pay and benefits at a major, and yet be cheaper than some start-up minimum-wage-paying regional.

For a little while I thought Delta had learned its lesson with low quality (Mesa), but it appears the race to the bottom has resumed. As long as the industry has two tiers of pilot pay, some pilots will be willing to work for nothing at the bottom tier, in hopes of making it quickly to the top tier. And you can't compete against someone who doesn't care how little he makes.
Click to expand...

Dont get it twisted, low quality was not the reason Delta got rid of Mesa. They used it as an excuse to get rid of Mesa's 50 seaters. Had Mesa had only the 900s and no 145s they would still be in DCI today.
 
JustaNumber said:
As long as the industry has two tiers of pilot pay, some pilots will be willing to work for nothing at the bottom tier, in hopes of making it quickly to the top tier. And you can't compete against someone who doesn't care how little he makes.
Click to expand...

Just to prove my point, from another thread...

flyboyzii said:
You have a lot to learn. I now work with pilots from all walks of life. ASA,Skywest,TSA,Pinnacle,Colgan,Mesa,US Air,Mesaba,Horizon,ATA,Aloha,Indy,Midwest,UAL furloughs among others. They, couldn't care less where I came from. Yes, I was at that horrible place (GoJet). I got my 1,000 PIC & MOVED ON to a much better place. But, hey keep up the whining, complaining and your own little jumpseat war. Let us know how that works out for you mmmmmk. For the record, G7 was a horrible place. It was no different than Trans States as far as managment, maintenance, schedules etc. I do not regret going to G7, getting my time and moving on. Good luck. With your attitude you're going to need it.
Click to expand...

How do you compete with that? Thanks for creating the B-scale wage, ALPA.

And for those who just say, "get your time and move on as well," do the math. Any new growth is coming to the absolute cheapest regional, not the majors. Unfortunately, most regional guys will never make it to the top of this ponzi scheme.
 
What's basically happening here is companies are being forced to operate at a loss, or no profit margin. This is not sustainable, but neither is losing your business to those that can bid cheaper. Now that it is established that GoJets can/will fly CRJ700's at a cheaper rate than ASA or Skywest, there is certainly no hope that GoJets won't win the next round of bids. This is to be expected in the era of bidding for flying. Our union cannot protect us from this. I expect Mesa to get back into the bidding and add more competition. Management at Skywest inc. MUST find a drastic way to reduce overall costs to continue to keep business. Either that, or they must continue to buy other carriers to rid the competiton. Either way, things will be very interesting as contracts expire and the flying goes to GoJets in the future.
 
79%N1 said:
What's basically happening here is companies are being forced to operate at a loss, or no profit margin. This is not sustainable, but neither is losing your business to those that can bid cheaper. Now that it is established that GoJets can/will fly CRJ700's at a cheaper rate than ASA or Skywest, there is certainly no hope that GoJets won't win the next round of bids. This is to be expected in the era of bidding for flying. Our union cannot protect us from this. I expect Mesa to get back into the bidding and add more competition. Management at Skywest inc. MUST find a drastic way to reduce overall costs to continue to keep business. Either that, or they must continue to buy other carriers to rid the competiton. Either way, things will be very interesting as contracts expire and the flying goes to GoJets in the future.
Click to expand...

Well said. We all thought PNCL was the main competition. But Hulas owns TSA, GoJet, and Compass. All have young pilot groups and are ripe to expand. Maybe Hulas knows something and that is why they ordered all those MRJs.
 
This is all in the hands of MGT. They "tried" to save money by under staffing the crap out of us which made our performance horrible! You can be expensive with a good product and still get a contract, but you can't be expensive AND have crappy performance and expect to keep airplanes. It's not like Delta hasn't shown this in the past.
 
I say put SH on line, what the he'll does he contribute anyway that CT can't do, what about Vac Low, those Sr lifers abusing the he'll outa it :)
 

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