DrunkIrishman
Cocaine is a helluva drug
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ASA and Airbus?
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Lrjtcaptain
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Ted Striker
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Ted Striker
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airline analyst michael boyd....
have you guys heard of this analyst? michael boyd group out of colorado....he has some interesting ideas on his website...go read his stuff about the ual chapter 11 and previous articles...it may humble some of my younger regional counterparts...all of us want a strong mainline...anyway here is an excerpt from WWW.AVIATIONPLANNING.COM
Trend To Watch: Re-Alignment of Small Jet Providers
Small Jet Providers (SJPs) - what most folks still mis-label as "regional airlines" - such as Skywest, Mesa, ACA, etc. - face a very uncertain future. These entities generally have no independently-generated revenue streams and derive most of their revenue by providing lift to major carriers. How much such lift will be needed in the future is one issue. How much some major partners will pay for it is another. With yields collapsing, costs going up, and economic uncertainties, the role of SJPs could be reduced or cut - leaving them hanging high and financially dry.
Watch for these carriers to start looking in earnest for some alternative applications of their Canadairs and Embraers including (but not limited to) new and possibly extensive alliances with the few low-fare carriers that exist. The AirTran JetConnect concept is miniscule compared to what might be announced over the next 12 - 18 months.
have you guys heard of this analyst? michael boyd group out of colorado....he has some interesting ideas on his website...go read his stuff about the ual chapter 11 and previous articles...it may humble some of my younger regional counterparts...all of us want a strong mainline...anyway here is an excerpt from WWW.AVIATIONPLANNING.COM
Trend To Watch: Re-Alignment of Small Jet Providers
Small Jet Providers (SJPs) - what most folks still mis-label as "regional airlines" - such as Skywest, Mesa, ACA, etc. - face a very uncertain future. These entities generally have no independently-generated revenue streams and derive most of their revenue by providing lift to major carriers. How much such lift will be needed in the future is one issue. How much some major partners will pay for it is another. With yields collapsing, costs going up, and economic uncertainties, the role of SJPs could be reduced or cut - leaving them hanging high and financially dry.
Watch for these carriers to start looking in earnest for some alternative applications of their Canadairs and Embraers including (but not limited to) new and possibly extensive alliances with the few low-fare carriers that exist. The AirTran JetConnect concept is miniscule compared to what might be announced over the next 12 - 18 months.
Humble? Hardly. This excerpt seems exactly opposite of some other material from the same website, namely:
a) The name is a misnomer: The 50-seat jet is no more a "regional" aircraft than is a 737 or an MD-80. It will be used in many of the same missions, it is not a "short haul" aircraft. Nor is it in anyway a "commuter" airplane. This airplane is now used in markets averaging over 500 miles. In the coming 18 months, markets as long as 1,200 miles will be common. Markets such as Moline/Quad Cities to Atlanta. And Billings - DFW, or Grand Junction - St.Louis. It will happen, and it will result in an airline system stronger than that of today. The study reviews the genesis of the small jet, and details how it got the name "regional jet" - something that it is not.
b) New Mission Applications: These aircraft will cause the most fundamental change to the US airline system since the first arrival of the jet airliner 40 years ago. Small jets will be used in a range of new missions: extending hub reach. Hub capacity relief. Competitive cherry-picking. Trans-border route development. Capacity-to-revenue adjustment.
c) Transformation of "Regional" Carriers Into "mini-majors." These small jets will essentially alter the role now filled by what we call "regional" airlines. They will become much more closely identified with the missions now typically operated by their major carrier partners. These airlines will no longer be tied to small community air service. Small jets will change how mega-carriers plan, strategize, and operate.
d) Route Growth Will Be Driven By Small Jets. In the next five years, most of the net-new route expansion in the US will be as a result of the new applications made possible by these aircraft. American will be able to raid markets previously dominated by United's Denver hub. United will be able dig deep into American's feed system around D/FW. From CVG, Delta will be able to raid some of US Airways' traditional traffic bastions in the northeast. Small jets will cause the rebirth of significant, hard-hitting competition between major airlines. The study provides specific examples.
e) Major Airlines Can Operate Regional Jets Profitably. The study runs the numbers, and this shatters the ambient thinking that only a regional airline can make money with small jets. These are airplanes that will generate strong new revenues, and to be profitable, they do not need to be operated "on the cheap" with low paid employees.
**The assumption that major carriers cannot cost effectively operate regional jets is simply trendy Wall Street lore. ** (emphasis and separation added)
The difference in total operating costs of small jets between majors and regional airline partners is less than 8%. When viewed in light of the new missions these aircraft will be operated in, major carriers - yes, those "high-cost" unionized carriers such as US Airways, United, and American - can operate these aircraft profitably with their own pilots, mechanics and flight attendants. Examples of typical small jet markets are used to detail how major carrier costs are not prohibitive for these airliners.
and my favorite...
f) Future Fleet Trends: The revenue-generating capacity of these aircraft may result in major carriers taking them away from regional partners and into their own operations.
Everything listed here seems to fit the current trend. The excerpt you posted is really out on a limb and diametrically opposed to the above points. Sounds like this Boyd Group is speaking out of both sides of their collective mouth. So what's the call, Mr. Boyd, new king of the skies or desert dust bags?
a) The name is a misnomer: The 50-seat jet is no more a "regional" aircraft than is a 737 or an MD-80. It will be used in many of the same missions, it is not a "short haul" aircraft. Nor is it in anyway a "commuter" airplane. This airplane is now used in markets averaging over 500 miles. In the coming 18 months, markets as long as 1,200 miles will be common. Markets such as Moline/Quad Cities to Atlanta. And Billings - DFW, or Grand Junction - St.Louis. It will happen, and it will result in an airline system stronger than that of today. The study reviews the genesis of the small jet, and details how it got the name "regional jet" - something that it is not.
b) New Mission Applications: These aircraft will cause the most fundamental change to the US airline system since the first arrival of the jet airliner 40 years ago. Small jets will be used in a range of new missions: extending hub reach. Hub capacity relief. Competitive cherry-picking. Trans-border route development. Capacity-to-revenue adjustment.
c) Transformation of "Regional" Carriers Into "mini-majors." These small jets will essentially alter the role now filled by what we call "regional" airlines. They will become much more closely identified with the missions now typically operated by their major carrier partners. These airlines will no longer be tied to small community air service. Small jets will change how mega-carriers plan, strategize, and operate.
d) Route Growth Will Be Driven By Small Jets. In the next five years, most of the net-new route expansion in the US will be as a result of the new applications made possible by these aircraft. American will be able to raid markets previously dominated by United's Denver hub. United will be able dig deep into American's feed system around D/FW. From CVG, Delta will be able to raid some of US Airways' traditional traffic bastions in the northeast. Small jets will cause the rebirth of significant, hard-hitting competition between major airlines. The study provides specific examples.
e) Major Airlines Can Operate Regional Jets Profitably. The study runs the numbers, and this shatters the ambient thinking that only a regional airline can make money with small jets. These are airplanes that will generate strong new revenues, and to be profitable, they do not need to be operated "on the cheap" with low paid employees.
**The assumption that major carriers cannot cost effectively operate regional jets is simply trendy Wall Street lore. ** (emphasis and separation added)
The difference in total operating costs of small jets between majors and regional airline partners is less than 8%. When viewed in light of the new missions these aircraft will be operated in, major carriers - yes, those "high-cost" unionized carriers such as US Airways, United, and American - can operate these aircraft profitably with their own pilots, mechanics and flight attendants. Examples of typical small jet markets are used to detail how major carrier costs are not prohibitive for these airliners.
and my favorite...
f) Future Fleet Trends: The revenue-generating capacity of these aircraft may result in major carriers taking them away from regional partners and into their own operations.
Everything listed here seems to fit the current trend. The excerpt you posted is really out on a limb and diametrically opposed to the above points. Sounds like this Boyd Group is speaking out of both sides of their collective mouth. So what's the call, Mr. Boyd, new king of the skies or desert dust bags?
P38JLightning
Well Endowed Member
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The Delta scope clause restricts not only the number of seats an oursourced aircraft can have but also the gross weight. I believe in addition to the 70 seat limit there is also a weight limit of around 76K lbs or somewhere in there. So no A-318's, B-777's or stretch A-380-900's for any Delta Connection carrier, regardless of seat config.
NYRANGERS
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- Joined
- Jun 13, 2002
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- 592
rjcap said:
Yea, you are right. I probably shouldn't have brought that up. But the RJ orders are in the 100's and we have over 1000 pilots on furlough. I think the new deliveries will be looked at as a way to get the RJ at mainline. This would give our own pilots jobs insted of hiring "outsiders" at the DCI carriers.
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