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I can annual the airplane every single day, go day VFR every time, cancel the flight if there's a cloud in the sky, plan my fuel burn to the hundredth of a gallon, and always carry a parachute and it still might not stop the engine from disintegrating at 400 feet... Should I just stay on the ground then?

I'm really not getting where you're coming from... maybe small words?
 
You find one risk at a time, and eliminate it. No magic wand to wave making everything all better, but instead planning, forethought, calculation, good decision making, proper inspection, and preparation.

All of these things has led to a truely amazing acompishment (probably the most amazing thing in the 20th century).

Flying in an aluminum tube at 8 tenths the speed of sound, at an altutude higher than Mt Everest, with outside temps 50 below, through very crowded skies, with a minimum speed at over 140 MPH, has become signifantly LESS RISKY than driving to the airport.

However you are still takeing a risk even on a flight in a airliner, not to mention the more risky flying that encompases general aviation.

I have seen data closely comparing flying GA aircraft with riding motorcycles. Which I think is a fair comparison.

Anytime your body is moving at over 100 MPH ther is a risk that you may come to a sudden stop. If you do, you will most likely not survive, I don't see how you eliminate this risk without staying on the ground.
 
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Anytime your body is moving at over 100 MPH ther is a risk that you may come to a sudden stop. If you do, you will most likely not survive, I don't see how you eliminate this risk without staying on the ground.

There you go with justification, again. The risk is only there if you allow it. Eliminate that risk. Think.

You can certainly do it by staying on the ground. But you don't have to risk coming to a "sudden stop."

When I was eighteen I started spraying. My boss kept me on a tight leash, had us fly formation where he could keep an eye on me. I knew everything then. Tucked in close, I could play in the wake of the lead, and in a tight ag turn, close to the stall and close to the ground, the aircraft would buffet in the leads wake, try to roll off on the outside, tuck in on the inside. I got white knuckled, knew all about stalls and spins, and felt like I had to be in the riskiest place in the world.

My boss put me there to eliminate the risk. One day he 'splained it to me.

So what if the aircraft stalls in that turn? Are you going to come to a sudden stop and just drop out of the sky? If you fly into a vacum all of a sudden, do you quit flying, and disintegrate? Not hardly. Your aircraft has momentum, inertia, energy. You will keep moving forward, and that vortice, that gust, that shear, that buffet you felt will pass, and before you know it you're back into good air again.

We see this with passengers...each bump is a terror, a boogie man hiding beneath the aircraft with a sledge hammer, monsters waiting to saw through the wing and eat them alive. But we know the bump passes, and we will never feel that bump again. Another perhaps but we learn to let each moment slip behind us, as our understanding increases. A wing drops. We're spilling lift, and lift is keeping us alive! We're going to die! No, we just pick up the wing again, hey, we're flying once more. I can do that. Let's do it again. That terrifying bank, that big risk of falling out of your seat to the ground so far below...that went away when we realized that the risk is eliminated by centrifugal/centripetal force...we stay stuck in our seat and don't fall after all.

My gyroplane bunts...pushes over and crashes. PIO, pilot induced oscillation, becomes a factor at any speed, but more so at higher speeds, as can bunting. A risk...it's hurt and killed a lot of would be gyro pilots. So I don't go as fast, not so quick on the controls, I avoid negative loaded maneuvers and pushovers, keep the rotor loaded all the time...eliminate the risk.

I don't want to come to a sudden stop, so I stay alert, I learn and practice and train landing that airplane without a motor. I make students do it, landing on roads, in fields, and convincing them that they'll never have a flight with me without numerous, constant, frequent multiple emergencies and engine failures. They come to get nervous if they aren't having a failure, wandering what's coming next. They learn, and in so doing, learn to eliminate the risk by planning the risk right out of their way.

Hard to run out of fuel by not burning off the bottom half of the tank. There's that risk addressed. Hard to do a lot of things when you plan ahead, and for the things you don't anticipate, training frequently and seriously enough to be prepared is a way of helping eliminate those risks.

Don't justify. Think.

Eliminate.

Find risks, and make them go away. Make them go away by finding alternate soloutions, paths, backups.

I'm walking down the street. You pull up alongside me, grab me, pull me into your car. You have power when I resist, because you're stronger. By pulling away, I pit my strength against yours, and I am gauranteed to lose. I gamble. There's the risk. The risk is that it's a gamble, and the outcome, the odds, aren't good. So I eliminate the risk of you being bigger, stronger. I go that direction. You pull me toward the car, and I decide that's where I want to go, too. I take away your strength, and in so doing eliminate risk, and thereby take control. I now have power over you, and the outcome is now my decision. Find the risk, eliminate it.

You do that by changing what is risky, by creating avenues of escape, by doing whatever is necessary to see that the outcome is favorable.

Long flight over the mountains. Take instruction in flying around the mountains; learn the basics. Stock your airplane. Pick a route that allows you to make a safe forced landing. Carry fuel, flares, a mirror, water, protective clothing. File a flight plan. Practice forced landings. Get some experience flying around terrain. Watch the weather and plan your flight accordingly. Approach the ridges at an angle, carry enough altitude to give you options, choose your route close to help, carry a roadmap to find where roads intersect the mountains, providing you the lowest flyable terrain. Calculate your performance. Get enough sleep, eat a good breakfast, meditate and put aside the divorce or the cat having surgery, or the fact that your three year old daughter just flushed your wedding ring for the sixth time. Eliminate those risks and open yourself up to new possibilities to ensure that you don't come to a "sudden stop."

Yes, you can do it, and unless you do it each and every time, then you have no business being up there.

Say no to speculation and justification. You have the right to be safe, and the privilege to make it so.
 
Avbug I have no doubt that you don't take ANY unecssary risks.

However, my point that you seem to be missing is that you are taking your precious body (which does not withstand impacts well) up into the air at over 100MPH (sometimes well over).

Eventually gravity is going to win if enough things break.

UAL 232

TWA 007

All those brand new lycomings with crankshafts that broke without warning.

Midair colisions with someone who is not as safety concious as you.


We have improved the odds so much it is hard to comprehend sometimes, but they can still bite.

When I was eighteen I started spraying. My boss kept me on a tight leash, had us fly formation where he could keep an eye on me. I knew everything then. Tucked in close, I could play in the wake of the lead, and in a tight ag turn, close to the stall and close to the ground, the aircraft would buffet in the leads wake, try to roll off on the outside, tuck in on the inside.

WHAT?! you let your boss pressure you, a young unexperianced pilot, into flying formation areobactics at low altitude! I can't belive ANYBODY would be so stupid! The planes were porbably overweight, and poorly maintained. You need to quit while your ahead, take up acounting, and leave flying to profesionals.

Note the sarcasam.
 
Yeah, sure

Its well documented in the past that Avbug used several alternate aliases to come to his aid when challenged on this board. Review the archives if you doubt me. Some were so transparent it was laughable. He actually attempted to gain credibility by vouching for himself (haha) using other sign on names.

He becomes hysterical and belittling when challenged. He has been cautioned on numerous occasions about abusive behavior toward others and has been suspended from this board at least once recently that I know of.

I am not saying you're one of his aliases but I will remain cautiously pessimistic.

Maybe he's just a kook who went over the hill. I guess that could be.

Regardless, his advice is uneven, capricious, and often outright dangerous in my opinion. Go back and review the discussion on Emergencies and inflight fires. His views are at best reckless and at worst suicidal.

I won't engage him. I am just cautioning people to realize what they're dealing with when they interact with him.



A Squared said:
I know who Avbug is. I've never met him, but I know his name from having read his posts for many years (much more the 3 years) and having corresponded with him on a number of occasions over the years. No, I'm not going to name him, but I will say that I have looked him up in the FAA database, and he does indeed posess the certificates he says he does. His pilot certificate has a type rating for an airplane which he would be extremely unlikely to have unlesss he flew for a specific air tanker company. He also holds another fairly uncommon ceritificate which would be consistent with having crewed another type which that same company was the sole operator. You may disagree with Avbug, but he's not a fraud. He's got the certificates and ratings he says he does.
 
Long flight over the mountains. Take instruction in flying around the mountains; learn the basics.

Being a "flatland flyer" I wouldn't even consider it without plenty of instruction.

Pick a route that allows you to make a safe forced landing.

"Safe forced landing"? I'd like to know how that is even possible.

Carry fuel, flares, a mirror, water, protective clothing.

Will do, but what if the flares ignite the fuel and burn up my jacket?

File a flight plan.

Done, but what if the SAR teams can't find me anyway?

Practice forced landings.

Kinda rough on airplanes. I do routinely pratice power off landings, and plan on learning to fly gliders.

Get some experience flying around terrain.

Will do

Watch the weather and plan your flight accordingly.

Only durring the good weather that never turns ugly without the weathermans OK, right.



Avbug you have perfectly described a plan to reduce the inherant risks that are a part of flying over the mountains. I will follow your advice in the future.

OTOH, plenty of stuff can still go wrong.

At this time flying over the mountains is an unacceptable level of risk for me. Mainly because of my lack of experiance in this area. Perhaps when I recive more training and experiance I will decide that those risks are less than they are now and a safe flight may be possible.
 
Its well documented in the past that Avbug used several alternate aliases to come to his aid when challenged on this board. Review the archives if you doubt me.

I'm not really sure what that has to do with the thread topic, but it's a lie all the same, as I have never used an alias to support myself. On a couple of occasions I've used someone else's computer when they hadn't logged out, and didn't realize it...that's all.

I won't engage him.

Too late, and you've done it before, haven't you?

Eventually gravity is going to win if enough things break.

UAL 232

TWA 007

Gravity didn't win over UAL 232. A miscalculation during landing after a catastrauphic failure resulted in a number of deaths, but preparation and professionalism by the crew prevented a lot more.

KAL 007 was certainly not a gravity issue; like flight TWA 800...it was shot down.

Luck, chance, risk? No.

All factors which can be eliminated.

Don't justify. Eliminate.

"Safe forced landing"? I'd like to know how that is even possible.

It had better be possible. If it isn't for you, then you need more remidial training. If the out is in doubt, then you've failed the test.
 
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nitrogen said:
I am not saying you're one of his aliases but I will remain cautiously pessimistic.

Good plan. This is, after all the internet. But if you dig just a little bit, you'll see that I've got a long established identity on this forum and others. You'll also find that I have on a number of occasions over the years disagreed with Avbug. Additionally, You'll see mention of the fact that I know a couple relatively prominent forum members in real life, as in: have hoisted brews with them, so I think you can probably rule me out as an Avbug alter ego.


BTW, I know what his stance is on emergencies, and while I won't go as far as to say that an in flight fire isn't an emergency, I tend to agree with him generally, in that not everything which goes wrong in an airplane is a reason to declare an emergency. Specifically, engine failures (an area in which it's safe to say that I have more experience than most here) are not necessarily emergencies.
 

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