An oil crash???

[CatfishVT9]

I guess I'm an idiot too. I set a new personal record for gas expenses last week on a trip from Central FL to Tennessee pulling my boat. $240 in one day! That was 2 tanks in the Suburban, one in the boat and 3 six-gallon cans. That was just to get there........ and worth every penny.


On the other hand, it's for trips like this that I have my SUV and have no intent to get rid of it.

 

[-9Capt]

Hey zotan I guess Im an IDIOT because I drive an suv. This according to you. Grow up dude. I drive a Tahoe because I like the ride and I would have a very hard time fitting my wife and 3 kids and black lab in a Honda hybrid. And oh yeah, I can afford it. If you feel like a do gooder by advocating that everyone should drive a pregnant rollerskate then God bless you, but in the meantime stop referring to suv drivers as idiots. We're not as dumb as you think. I would love to see some tree hugger give me this holier than thou attitude to my face ,like at the gas station . Strange enough though it never happens. It sure would be fun if it did.

Jimcav,
How about I take that SUV you drive and cram it straight up your tailpipe? You're killing the environment, who's going to save the spotted owls (insert more bleeding heart, liberal, hippie, granola bar crap, here).

A Tahoe? I had you pegged for an Excursion. You need that type of 4wd up there in snow country.

 

[jimcav]

Oh that Tahoe is 4wd, and it's big enough to make all the lefties think I'm an a$$hole. Gotta love it.Congrats on your new personal best Catfish. I hope some of that weight was in the form of several cases of beer.

 

[ZOTAN]

If you need the SUV, then I dont really care. Its the people who drive around in them by themselves blazing down the road at 90 mph that make mad. The people who are idiots are the ones with their rasied Hummer 2's in suburbia who have never even been off roading.

 

[klhoard]

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JetFlyer. . . .
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You don't need to worry about PEAK OIL; because you're going to die of a coronary worrying about this before it every comes close!!!
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BTW - I don't drive an SUV, but an F-150 pickup truck. I plan on going to a larger F-250 or -350 real soon. And I almost always drive it alone. . . just for the fun of it!!!
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[jimcav]

I really don't care if you approve or not. I also drive it by myself when I probably could use a smaller car. I'm a big guy with a lot of nagging injuries as a result of years of sports. I like the comfort of the bigger ride when i'm not crammed in the cockpit of my airplane. Also if someone wants to drive a Hummer thats their perrogative. Just don't complain about gas prices if you choose a thirsty vehicle.

 

[jetflyer]

You don't need to worry about PEAK OIL; because you're going to die of a coronary worrying about this before it every comes close!!!

You have a good point. I need to relax. I think I have a fear of the unknown. I just found out about the peak oil thing about a month ago and I guess it pissed me off. I thought "We all want oil to go back to $30 and it may go higher. Wonderful what now?"

Let's hope the airlines will be allright by raising their fares.

Delta needs to raise their simplifares upper cap. Let's hope they do permanently, instead of temporarily.

Jet

 

[mzaharis]

I just found out about the peak oil thing about a month ago and I guess it pissed me off.
Jet

Spend some time researching the other side of the issue. Hubbert Peak is a pretty controversial concept, and there is a long line of experts who refute it. There are some good articles at www.economist.com, but you may need to pay for them. A bit of searching on the internet should also pull up some information. Once you have seen the evidence for and against, you can make up your own mind in an informed manner.

Frankly, the things I have read on both sides has led me to believe that the peak is some ways off, and not quite the Malthusian catastrophe that alarmists make it out to be.

 

[jetflyer]

Well even Exxon says 2010 will be the PEAK of OIL production for Non-Opec Oil now. Let's hope Opec can increase capacity to make up the difference and provide enough oil for growing global demand.

Let's hope the Saudi's can do what they say they can and increase production because all the other Opec Countries say they're pumping at full tilt. Unfortunately there is a new book out by Matthew Simmons, called Twilight in the Desert, which I'm half-way through, using evidence from over 200 SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers) papers to prove the Saudi's are full of cr-ap and are about to reach their production peak of oil (peak oil) like the U.S. did in 1970 and begin the inevitable decline like the U.S., England, Australia, and 20+ other countries have accross the world. Matthew Simmons was an advisor to Bush/Cheney for their energy policy. He's not some liberal wacko. He predicts Global Peak Oil by the end of this decade.

Let's also hope we have enough time and can do these things:
1) Build tons of electric cars which can run off the electric grid.
2) Get the Canadian Oil sands to start producing a lot of oil
3) Develop more Bio-fuels from soy, palms, and algaes and increase ethanol productions.
4) Bring Thermal depolymerization plants to market (can convert almost anything with carbon to oil through severe heat and pressure, but can't produce much per plant)
5) Get more Nuclear primarily, but also Solar and Wind ramped up quickly to provide for our electric grid, so we can use all the extra Natural gas and Coal for Transportation fuels (both can be converted to transportation fuels--Coal is really nasty for the environment, but natural gas is actually better than oil for the environment)
6) Build new LNG (liquified natural gas) terminals (still years off from being finished) and build new LNG tankers to bring in the natural gas from other countries, because there is a severe shortage in the U.S. now. Also the excess we can import can be used for transportation fuels
7) Build Hydrogen Fuel-Cell cars. Currently the companies are saying it will still be 10 years till production for the public will be possible. There are so many technical difficulties they still have to work out to make the cost cheap enough.
8) Use trains more to transport our food and goods long distances instead of long-haul 18 wheelers.
9) Build more trains, subways, and busses for public transportation in major cities to get cars off the roads.
10) Make homes and buildings more energy efficient, so we can use the coal and natural gas saved for transportation fuels instead of the power grid.
11) Introduce Hybrid-technologies to every new car.
12) Develop Nuclear Fusion which has no pollution and could power all our energy needs (you have to use natural gas, coal, or nuclear to develop hydrogen fuel because hydrogen is just an energy carrier) Unfortunately Nuclear Fusion is 50 years off by almost all expert's estimations.
13) Impose higher fuel-economy standards for all vehicles, but this would be taken care of by itself from electric, hydrogen fuel-cell, and hybrid vehicles.
14) Oh yea and drill in the Alaska Wildlife Preserve and off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts including Florida coasts which have a lot of oil.


These things need to be accelerated very quickly to lessen the effects of Peak Oil. Keeping up with the demand increases for transportation fuels as oil production declines is going to be THE GREAT CHALLENGE OF THE EARLY 21st CENTURY.

If you think keeping up with demand for transportation fuels is going to be easy as we approach and pass peak oil production, you don't understand the severity of the problem. When we are on the backside of Hubbert's peak after PEAK OIL occurs, SUPPLIES will be declining by 2-5% per year while DEMAND will be increasing by 2-4% per year,

We currently as a World use about an average of 84 milion barrels of oil per day(that's the equivalent of 3.5 BILLION GALLONS PER DAY!). So every year after peak, assuming ALL GROWTH in demand stops, we will be forced to use around 1.5-3 million barrels less every day per year.
That's a lot of oil to replace.

Oil prices are going up now because of supply problems, maybe from the approaching of PEAK OIL. The increasing prices are going to spur the development of the above items. Let's hope those spurs cut deep in the as-ses of all of us Americans and that the high oil prices don't crash our economy too hard.

We also have to hope the above items are addressed quickly to keep oil prices below astronomical levels so the economy stays strong for our airlines (we need fat, dumb, rich, and happy passengers) and so the costs of Jet Fuel keep from getting too high so our airlines can stay in business!!

Peak oil is mostly an economic problem. We have to hope the high oil prices from supply problems coming don't crash the economy before these new technologies are ramped up.

Let's hope we can do it. I think we can with great effort.

Jet

 

[ZOTAN]

Jet,

Check out this article: http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4077933
Many OPEC nations can increase production. Its not physical limitations that are holding them back; its the memory of 10$ oil.

 

[jetflyer]

Zotan,

I read the article.
No one knows for sure anything about Opec companies first of all. There is no governing agency over this OIL CARTEL. It's always "TRUST US". For the last 20 years, since Opec countries stopped giving detailed field production rates and their country wide production rates, everything has been shrouded in secrecy.

Let's hope the secrecy from OPEC doesn't mean they have something to hide, like they can't increase production and really are producing full tilt like Iran's analyst has said.

If they can increase production, this would be a great thing, but how much can they increase it? It will have to be enough to overcome the rest of the world's declines and meet demand increases. Let's hope they can, and that it will be enough. Let's hope.

Still there is a lot of "let's hope"

There is a big problem, when you must rely on hope. Even if Opec can overcome Non-Opec countries declines, we obviously must not rely on hope alone, and we the U.S., and other countries of the world, must begin taking actions like OPEC will not be able to raise their productions.

Failure to act now and shift our economies towards alternative transportation liquids, would be plain ignowant. We must not be ignowant and must BEGIN getting other alternatives going.


HERE IS WHAT WE MUST OVERCOME:

5 years from now with a very conservative 2% growth rate World oil demand will be up from current 84 million barrels per day to 93 million. More recent 3% increases means we will need 97 million.

10 years from now with a very conservative 2% growth rate WORLD OIL DEMAND WILL BE up from current 84 million barrels a day to 102 million!! More recent increases of 3% means we will need 113 million!!

That's going to require an increase of 22 million barrels a day 10 years from now.

In a 1999 speech[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] DICK CHENEY, an ultra left-wing liberal wacko, gave while still CEO of Halliburton, stated: [/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent[/font]​

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead,[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]along with, [/font][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]conservatively[/font][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif], a three-percent natural decline[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]in production from existing reserves.That means by 2010 we[/font]

[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a d[/font][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ay. [/font]​

NOTE added by me: the world demand actually has been increasing from 3-4% per year recently because of China, India, and other developing countries needing more oil than ever projected in the past.


[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Granted Cheney's speech was back in 1999, but you can see that our leaders understand the magnitude of this problem. GLOBAL DEMAND increasing with Supply decreasing in the future. [/font]
[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can we meet the needed demand through 2010? Let's hope so. Oh yea and then there's 2011-2015, and on, where we'll need more each year. By then hopefully alternatives will start picking up the slack.[/font]

Exxon said NON-OPEC countries are going to begin decline in 2010. I personally believe from other things I've seen from geologists, industry experts, etc. that NON-OPEC is at peak or will peak sooner, with the UK and Australia having had MAJOR declines last year(14 and 17% respectively), and of course with the U.S. also declining.

So with the Non-OPEC Countries beginning to decline atleast by 2010, OPEC countries are going to have to make up the difference to 2010 of declines from other countries and increased demand.

Saudi Arabia now pumps 9.5 million barrels of oil daily, with the capacity to produce 11 million barrels a day. The country has pledged to increase daily production to 12.5 million barrels by 2009, and the nation's oil minister said last month the level of 12.5 million to 15 million barrels daily could be sustained for up to 50 years.

They say they can only increase production 3 million barrels a day by 2009! That's not going to be enough to keep up with DEMAND INCREASES and definitely not if SUPPLY DECLINES FROM NON-OPEC countries.

It's not going to be as easy as the Economist writer predicts.

We need to start acting now, not finding excuses to procrastinate longer.

Let's hope we can overcome this oil supply problem without oil getting too much higher than $60.00 a barrel,

Jet
[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]


[/font]

 

[miles otoole]

If you need the SUV, then I dont really care. Its the people who drive around in them by themselves blazing down the road at 90 mph that make mad. The people who are idiots are the ones with their rasied Hummer 2's in suburbia who have never even been off roading.

Oh yeah, and those people who wear running shoes in public and they're not running. Sheesh.

 

[AMRCostUnit]

Pretty depressing thread. Guess I better start horse shopping while they are cheap.

Anyone know about Russia? Don't they have some hefty oil reserves and just lack the infrastructure to get it to production?

Unit
GiddyUp

 

[jetflyer]

One more thing to add
from the Economist article:

Any extra oil that OPEC produces right now will be heavy, high-sulphur crude, which requires high-tech refineries to make the end products meet western environmental standards.

We do not have the high-tech refineries for these grades of fuel yet. LIGHT SWEET CRUDE is on decline already. These heavier crudes are chap compared to light sweet crude right now, because there aren't many refiners that can take it.

Unfortunately these HEAVIER GRADES OF FUEL are supposed to Peak 5 years after Light sweet crude.

Plus these heavier grades of fuel ARE CALCULATED in EXXON's prediction of peak oil for NON-OPEC countries by 2010.

Bush wants to build new refineries on closed military bases. This needs to be done YESTERDAY. I can bet these new refineries will be able to handle these heavier grades of fuel, don't you?

Bush has told Congress he WANTS THEM TO HURRY on the Energy Policy and get it done before they break in August.

Bush realizes there's a problem. He needs to continue kicking the congress in the a-s-s and get things done.

They're too distracted by the stupid Bolton thing and Social Security which won't matter much if we don't get the energy crisis of the 21st century fixed!!

Let's hope we get tons of more nuclear plants, drill in the Alaska Wildlife Preserve, etc., but Bush needs to compromise on the Fuel Economy Standards. He also needs to request increased funding for Alternatives like wind, solar, hydrogen, ELECTRIC CARS, etc.

Electric cars have come a LONG WAY in the last 5 years and can new technologies allow a full recharge in less than an hour, and last for ranges up to 200 miles. THESE WILL HELP a lot, and can be used for daily commutes to work and back. People then could go to AVIS, BUDGET, HERTZ, or other places to rent an Internal Combustion engined vehicle to drive to grandma's 700 miles away in Kansas.

There are also Hybrid-PLUGIN vehicles that are in development (PRIUS II). These will allow after plug-in at home acquiring energy from the electrical grid for cars to run the first 30 miles on BATTERY POWER ALONE from the charged HYBRID BATTERY. Then the car will use the Hybrid-Gas mode to get around the rest of the time. THESE ARE ACTUALLY more practical than FULL ELECTRIC, but Full electric requires ZERO OIL.


Read about this great new Hybrid-Plugin technology here:
http://www.mixedpower.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=599

Breaking News: AWESOME!! Just saw on CNBC that Warren Buffet wants to start investing more into energy, and is going to invest heavily in Nuclear, if and when the Energy Policy passes.

Let's pass that energy policy and start working on these fixes!

Jet

 

[ZOTAN]

Drilling isnt going to solve our problem; becoming more efficient is. Like I said earlier, 90% of the global oil use is for transportation. We could cut that in half (probably more) if we had people drive more fuel efficient cars. Our future lies in efficiency, not more drilling. The ANWR doesnt even have light sweet crude. Its the heavier stuff, and we wouldnt be able to refine it here in the US. If we increas the fuel efficiency in our cars by just 1mpg we would be able to save double the amount of oil that the ANWR would pump out in the same year.

EXXON predicts peak oil in 2010 because they want us to become scared. People make stupid decisions when they are scared such as opening up the ANWR.

 

[LAXSaabdude]

Take what you read from MATT SAVINAR at
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
with a grain of salt.

I think he's a person that's genuinely scared and trying to get people to act

I've read the site, and somehow, I came to the exact opposite conclusion!

There have been a lot of very promising developments in just the last few years in hybrids, biodiesel, and ethanol. But if you read "Life After The Oil Crash", he is basically saying that all of these efforts are exercises in futility. I'm not really sure what point this guy is trying to make, other than sensasionalism.

If one were to read his predictions and take each one of them verbatim, it has a tendency to paralize a person into a sense of resignation. People are more likely to be inspired to act if they feel that some positive result will occur. This website offers no suggestions, and decries all current efforts in the fields of alternative energy.

LAXSaabdude.

 

[jetflyer]

Pretty depressing thread. Guess I better start horse shopping while they are cheap.

Anyone know about Russia? Don't they have some hefty oil reserves and just lack the infrastructure to get it to production?

Unit
GiddyUp

LOL Unit. I think I'm going to invest in horse and buggy technology

Russia unfortunately being NON-OPEC is included in Exxon's prediction of Peak Oil in non-Opec countries within 5 years.

Russia has a decaying infrastructure which needs heavy investment to just maintain, and a lot more investment like you said, to build up for new production.

Many are predicting Russia to begin declining in oil production AGAIN in 2010 after getting all the new oil production ramped up with HEAVY INVESTMENT because what they currently have is in decline:

In Lisbon, Ray Leonard (the former vice president of Yukos for exploration and the present executive of the Hungarian company MOL) said he expected output to decline (for Russia) after 2010.

Predictions like this one from Russia, which is one of the only non-Opec countries to currently have any excess production, is why I think EXXON's prediction of 2010 for NON-OPEC PEAK, is optimistic.

Giddy up!

Jet

 

[ZOTAN]

I have sent an email off to Savinar basically calling him an asshole. I talked about a lot of the achievements we have made in switching to alternative fuels. Not surprisingly, I didnt get a response back. He does not offer a single solution, and basically says the world is coming to an end in 2010.

 

[jetflyer]

I've read the site, and somehow, I came to the exact opposite conclusion!

There have been a lot of very promising developments in just the last few years in hybrids, biodiesel, and ethanol. But if you read "Life After The Oil Crash", he is basically saying that all of these efforts are exercises in futility. I'm not really sure what point this guy is trying to make, other than sensasionalism.

If one were to read his predictions and take each one of them verbatim, it has a tendency to paralize a person into a sense of resignation. People are more likely to be inspired to act if they feel that some positive result will occur. This website offers no suggestions, and decries all current efforts in the fields of alternative energy.

LAXSaabdude.

I agree with you LAX, I don't like Matt Savinar's style, but his site got your attention right?

I think he may not even believe his own predictions of COMPLETE WORLD COLLAPSE.

He's trying to TEACH PEOPLE THAT PEAK OIL EXISTS.

I think he's trying to galvanize people into action so these predictions of his don't occur.

For that reason, I like what he's doing. He's trying to get people's attention.

It worked for Roscoe Bartlett, Republican House Rep from Maryland. He read the www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net site. He said this site made him do serious research, talk to industry insiders, and finally make THREE speeches to Congress about PEAK OIL. He is a serious believer.

Here is the transcript of a SPEECH given by VERY CONSERVATIVE Republican and Maryland Congressman ROSCOE BARTLETT to the HOUSE on MAY 3, 2005 about PEAK OIL:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5948.html

There are two sides to the Peak Oil theorists. There are the DOOMSDAYERS and the SOFTLANDERS.

Both groups think we'll have trouble. The Doomsdayers think we're going back to the stone age and society will crumble. The Softlanders think we'll be able to create technologies and replace oil.

I fall in the middle, leaning towards a soft landing. I think we're in serious trouble, and that the required technologies haven't been put to market enough yet to cushion ENOUGH, to prevent atleast a pretty good RECESSION.

How bad do I think that Recession will get? I don't know. This all depends on how fast we can get things done. I think there's gonna be some SERIOUS money invested.

Let's hope throwing money at this problem works fast enough to overcome the declines after peak!!

Let's hope

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

I have sent an email off to Savinar basically calling him an asshole. I talked about a lot of the achievements we have made in switching to alternative fuels. Not surprisingly, I didnt get a response back. He does not offer a single solution, and basically says the world is coming to an end in 2010.

I've read his comments in postings at www.peakoil.com and www.biodieselnow.com.

I read past comments from him, from about a year ago, at biodieselnow and the other BIODIESEL hopefuls were tearing him apart. He came on there posting with his negative end of the world arguments and attitude. Matt Savinar couldn't get his arguments across very intelligently at all, and he was getting his facts inaccurate as well. They tore him to shreds.

He hasn't posted there since.

I think he's a very pessimistic, scared individual. I do hope he's wrong and not right though Time will tell. Pray!

Jet