American the place to be in a few years?

IFLYASA

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I've been going over the numbers at AAI. They roughly have 11,000 pilots with over 1000 on furlough. They haven't hired since 2000-2001. Assuming most majors avg age for a new hire pilot is 35, their avg age for the last new hires is around 44ish.

With the age 65 rule kicking in, it will be much longer before they hire. Plus with the 1000 furloughs, I would say it may take at least 5 years for them to hire again. Now, that avg age new hire is around 49 years old. So in theory if these guys/gals go until 65, they will have to replace 11000 pilots within 15 years.

Talking about movement!
 

Saluki Dawg

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Well, AAI is Airtran. They don't have quite that many pilots. However AMR does, and when they do start hiring again, you're right, things should start moving pretty well.
 

Bake

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AAI is AirTran!! Do you mean AMR?
 

jonjuan

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I've been going over the numbers at AAI. They roughly have 11,000 pilots with over 1000 on furlough. They haven't hired since 2000-2001. Assuming most majors avg age for a new hire pilot is 35, their avg age for the last new hires is around 44ish.

With the age 65 rule kicking in, it will be much longer before they hire. Plus with the 1000 furloughs, I would say it may take at least 5 years for them to hire again. Now, that avg age new hire is around 49 years old. So in theory if these guys/gals go until 65, they will have to replace 11000 pilots within 15 years.

Talking about movement!
You're also assuming A) AMR won't shrink in size, and B) the pilot age limit doesn't go up to 75-80.
 

Bigoober

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I've been going over the numbers at AAI. They roughly have 11,000 pilots with over 1000 on furlough. They haven't hired since 2000-2001. Assuming most majors avg age for a new hire pilot is 35, their avg age for the last new hires is around 44ish.

With the age 65 rule kicking in, it will be much longer before they hire. Plus with the 1000 furloughs, I would say it may take at least 5 years for them to hire again. Now, that avg age new hire is around 49 years old. So in theory if these guys/gals go until 65, they will have to replace 11000 pilots within 15 years.

Talking about movement!

If getting into the right seat is all that matters. You still have to deal with the other issues that make up your QOL. Take it from me, that everything else matters.
 

Lear70

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Was thinking about that the other day, actually, all identifier acronym jokes aside... ;)

If they remain the same size (arguable), they should be hiring back the furloughees in about 5 years. Let's say 1/3 of them don't come back (conservatively), that leaves plenty of bodies to fill classes, then they likely won't hire again for another 5-7 years.

By then, not only will the average guys be 10-12 years or so from retirement, BUT so will the majority of us who are currently in aviation (I consider myself young-ish for my experience level at 37, and 10-12 years from now I'll be 49).

Why is this important? Anyone who is already over 35 won't really benefit from this huge fallout at AA in about 10 years. Who WILL benefit? The guys in their 20's at the regionals NOW. They'll be 35 with lots of jet time from their regional airline, and will have 30+ years at AA with pretty quick seniority progression, probably a 10 year upgrade and 20+ years as an AA Captain.

As an aside, the people who are on furlough from AA right now, IF they go back, will probably have 5-7 year upgrades and get to spend the last 10-15 years as Captains. Someone at AMR mentioned the other day that the union did a study, and the #1 guy on furlough at AMR, if he comes back, will retire as #31 on the system-wide seniority list because of those projected retirements the last 5 years of his career. The bottom guy on the seniority list will retire in the upper 15% of the system-wide seniority list, holding whatever aircraft CA seat he wants in whatever domicile he wants.

Great news for them, for the rest of us it isn't going to really help.
 

FlyinPiker

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You're also assuming A) AMR won't shrink in size, and B) the pilot age limit doesn't go up to 75-80.
Or that they don't merge......again.

Air Cal
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TWA

They're about due for another...

I seriously don't understand why they buy these airlines...not much left of any of these purchases in today's operation.
 

johnsonrod

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Will the Eagle flow-through still be in place? Are there Eagle pilots still in line for AA seats when they become available (long-term)?
 

Green

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As an aside, the people who are on furlough from AA right now, IF they go back, will probably have 5-7 year upgrades and get to spend the last 10-15 years as Captains. Someone at AMR mentioned the other day that the union did a study, and the #1 guy on furlough at AMR, if he comes back, will retire as #31 on the system-wide seniority list because of those projected retirements the last 5 years of his career. The bottom guy on the seniority list will retire in the upper 15% of the system-wide seniority list, holding whatever aircraft CA seat he wants in whatever domicile he wants.

Great news for them, for the rest of us it isn't going to really help.
I don't think you can call this "Great News" for the furloughees. I'm guessing the average AA newhire spent anywhere from 5-10 years busting their as#es# at the regionals for downright poverty wages before being hired by AA at about 35 years old with little to zero net worth. Then they spent 10 years or so on furlough. So the story of their 20's, 30's, and half of their 40's is likely one of debt and poor earnings. These are the years that most people are building their net worth, buying homes, etc....Retiring number 1 at age 65 does not make up for 20 years of crap wages. You have very little time to invest your top of scale earnings when you don't start making them until you are 55-60+. Looking from a purely monetary point of view they would have probably been better off going to work as a plumber right out of high school.

Contrast that with a RyanAir pilot in Europe. They spend 50k to get their type, then get hired by RyanAir at 23 years old with 250 hours total time. Pay is 85 Euros per hour for the right seat and 130 Euros for the left with a 5 year or so upgrade. These guys are making over 100k from the moment they join the airline industry. They have already earned approximately 1.5-2 million dollars by the time they reach the average age of an AA newhire. This is the carrier that is the supposed bottom feeder of the industry.

I just don't think the US Airline industry is worth a dam# anymore. We have fallen so far in relation to our peers overseas. IMHO the best bet for a new pilot in the US is to get a job with any decent carrier overseas asap. My .02.
 

Flyby1206

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Will the Eagle flow-through still be in place? Are there Eagle pilots still in line for AA seats when they become available (long-term)?
Eagle flowthrough is dead(the agreement has expired). Do not come to Eagle in hopes of flowing through to AA, cuz it aint happenin. At Eagle we have approx 500 CAs with AA seniority numbers, but I doubt any of them will actually flow.
 

Lear70

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I just don't think the US Airline industry is worth a dam# anymore. We have fallen so far in relation to our peers overseas. IMHO the best bet for a new pilot in the US is to get a job with any decent carrier overseas asap. My .02.
Can't argue with that...

However, you'll have to marry a European to get a JAR Passport and EU right of abode for any of those jobs, not to mention it's pretty rare for them to hire someone with a lot of previous airline experience. They like to train them their way from day one...

Sweet gig if you could get it, though, compared to what the U.S. airlines have become, with the noted exceptions of FedEx, UPS, and to a certain extent, CAL and SWA.
 

Draginass

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If AMR gets their way, there won't be any "American" airlines, just a "One World" Airline. In other words, AA becomes a "virtual" airline. Farm out as much narrowbody flying as possible to cheap labor regionals and the rest is done by "One World" Airlines using the cheapest labor available worldwide.
 

Kugelblitz

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If AMR gets their way, there won't be any "American" airlines, just a "One World" Airline. In other words, AA becomes a "virtual" airline. Farm out as much narrowbody flying as possible to cheap labor regionals and the rest is done by "One World" Airlines using the cheapest labor available worldwide.
That is absolutely true, but not only at AMR but at all the 'major' airlines. We now live in the brave new world crafted by institutions like the Harvard Business School where nothing is sacred. No loyalty to employees or even to your own country ,i.e. don't employ expensive Americans, go overseas and let your fellow countryman rot. It all amounts to profits for the majority shareholders, which are a relatively small number of people who own a huge number of shares. Oh, and it is about getting bonuses for said CEO by doing such things as the shameless raiding of pension funds and then patting themselves on the back for their genius.

For what it is worth, I had a native American jumpseater fly with me out of Scotland, and then commute with me back to STL and we talked a lot about the movement situation over there. According to this fellow, the length of time to captain at present is 17 years. If I took my recall today, which it hasn't been offered yet, and if TWA Supp CC goes away- which I believe it will- I would make captain at age 60.

Given those upgrade numbers and some of the negative metrics I have seen about AA's future, I find it hard to believe it could be a 'place to be'. Frankly no airline is a place to be and I am trying to find a way out. Not too easy in this economy however.
 
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G4G5

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I haven't looked at seniority projections in years but this thread made me think that I may have missed something, so I checked.

This thread is way off!

I was hired at 34 back in Aug of 2000. Furloughed at 37. Now at 43 I am projected to retire at #2566 if I go out at 60, hardly any base any seat type numbers. God forbid and I stay to 65 I don't even break the top 1000.

Their are 1892 pilots still out on furlough. if 33% decide to say no thanks, then you are still looking at 1200 guys waiting to get back. The school house at stellar pace would be lucky to get up to 50 guys a month. That's 2 years of 50+ straight recalls just to get the guys back. If the class is at a more realistic 35 a month, it will take 3 years.

Best case is that they start to do recalls when all the age 60 guys turn 65, another 3 years. Sure they may open the doors for a little attrition but that's maybe 100-150 guys a year and the airline is shrinking faster then that, so IMHO it will be minimal numbers at best.

3 years before retirements pick up and 3 years to get everyone back and you are looking at 2015 before AA hires off the street again.

No seat movement for the next 3 years and then no new hires for another 6 years. Not exactly boom times at AA
 

InTransit

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The school house at stellar pace would be lucky to get up to 50 guys a month. That's 2 years of 50+ straight recalls just to get the guys back. If the class is at a more realistic 35 a month, it will take 3 years.
Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month
 

C-150ETOPS

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It's the place to be if you have some sort of a granny fetish and a part time job selling artificial hips.:eek:

In that case, you'd be like a 29 year old single guy AA in 1968, in Heaven.
 

G4G5

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Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month
Its the ramp up time, I believe that during the 1999-2000 days they were doing 2 classes of 50 a month but thats not the case anymore. It would take them quite sometime to go from 0-100 a month.

Back in those days AA was leasing sim time and had quite a few more instructors on staff
 
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