American the place to be in a few years?

[Green]

As an aside, the people who are on furlough from AA right now, IF they go back, will probably have 5-7 year upgrades and get to spend the last 10-15 years as Captains. Someone at AMR mentioned the other day that the union did a study, and the #1 guy on furlough at AMR, if he comes back, will retire as #31 on the system-wide seniority list because of those projected retirements the last 5 years of his career. The bottom guy on the seniority list will retire in the upper 15% of the system-wide seniority list, holding whatever aircraft CA seat he wants in whatever domicile he wants.

Great news for them, for the rest of us it isn't going to really help.

I don't think you can call this "Great News" for the furloughees. I'm guessing the average AA newhire spent anywhere from 5-10 years busting their as#es# at the regionals for downright poverty wages before being hired by AA at about 35 years old with little to zero net worth. Then they spent 10 years or so on furlough. So the story of their 20's, 30's, and half of their 40's is likely one of debt and poor earnings. These are the years that most people are building their net worth, buying homes, etc....Retiring number 1 at age 65 does not make up for 20 years of crap wages. You have very little time to invest your top of scale earnings when you don't start making them until you are 55-60+. Looking from a purely monetary point of view they would have probably been better off going to work as a plumber right out of high school.

Contrast that with a RyanAir pilot in Europe. They spend 50k to get their type, then get hired by RyanAir at 23 years old with 250 hours total time. Pay is 85 Euros per hour for the right seat and 130 Euros for the left with a 5 year or so upgrade. These guys are making over 100k from the moment they join the airline industry. They have already earned approximately 1.5-2 million dollars by the time they reach the average age of an AA newhire. This is the carrier that is the supposed bottom feeder of the industry.

I just don't think the US Airline industry is worth a dam# anymore. We have fallen so far in relation to our peers overseas. IMHO the best bet for a new pilot in the US is to get a job with any decent carrier overseas asap. My .02.

 

[Flyby1206]

Will the Eagle flow-through still be in place? Are there Eagle pilots still in line for AA seats when they become available (long-term)?

Eagle flowthrough is dead(the agreement has expired). Do not come to Eagle in hopes of flowing through to AA, cuz it aint happenin. At Eagle we have approx 500 CAs with AA seniority numbers, but I doubt any of them will actually flow.

 

[Lear70]

I just don't think the US Airline industry is worth a dam# anymore. We have fallen so far in relation to our peers overseas. IMHO the best bet for a new pilot in the US is to get a job with any decent carrier overseas asap. My .02.

Can't argue with that...

However, you'll have to marry a European to get a JAR Passport and EU right of abode for any of those jobs, not to mention it's pretty rare for them to hire someone with a lot of previous airline experience. They like to train them their way from day one...

Sweet gig if you could get it, though, compared to what the U.S. airlines have become, with the noted exceptions of FedEx, UPS, and to a certain extent, CAL and SWA.

 

[Draginass]

If AMR gets their way, there won't be any "American" airlines, just a "One World" Airline. In other words, AA becomes a "virtual" airline. Farm out as much narrowbody flying as possible to cheap labor regionals and the rest is done by "One World" Airlines using the cheapest labor available worldwide.

 

[Kugelblitz]

If AMR gets their way, there won't be any "American" airlines, just a "One World" Airline. In other words, AA becomes a "virtual" airline. Farm out as much narrowbody flying as possible to cheap labor regionals and the rest is done by "One World" Airlines using the cheapest labor available worldwide.

That is absolutely true, but not only at AMR but at all the 'major' airlines. We now live in the brave new world crafted by institutions like the Harvard Business School where nothing is sacred. No loyalty to employees or even to your own country ,i.e. don't employ expensive Americans, go overseas and let your fellow countryman rot. It all amounts to profits for the majority shareholders, which are a relatively small number of people who own a huge number of shares. Oh, and it is about getting bonuses for said CEO by doing such things as the shameless raiding of pension funds and then patting themselves on the back for their genius.

For what it is worth, I had a native American jumpseater fly with me out of Scotland, and then commute with me back to STL and we talked a lot about the movement situation over there. According to this fellow, the length of time to captain at present is 17 years. If I took my recall today, which it hasn't been offered yet, and if TWA Supp CC goes away- which I believe it will- I would make captain at age 60.

Given those upgrade numbers and some of the negative metrics I have seen about AA's future, I find it hard to believe it could be a 'place to be'. Frankly no airline is a place to be and I am trying to find a way out. Not too easy in this economy however.

 

[G4G5]

I haven't looked at seniority projections in years but this thread made me think that I may have missed something, so I checked.

This thread is way off!

I was hired at 34 back in Aug of 2000. Furloughed at 37. Now at 43 I am projected to retire at #2566 if I go out at 60, hardly any base any seat type numbers. God forbid and I stay to 65 I don't even break the top 1000.

Their are 1892 pilots still out on furlough. if 33% decide to say no thanks, then you are still looking at 1200 guys waiting to get back. The school house at stellar pace would be lucky to get up to 50 guys a month. That's 2 years of 50+ straight recalls just to get the guys back. If the class is at a more realistic 35 a month, it will take 3 years.

Best case is that they start to do recalls when all the age 60 guys turn 65, another 3 years. Sure they may open the doors for a little attrition but that's maybe 100-150 guys a year and the airline is shrinking faster then that, so IMHO it will be minimal numbers at best.

3 years before retirements pick up and 3 years to get everyone back and you are looking at 2015 before AA hires off the street again.

No seat movement for the next 3 years and then no new hires for another 6 years. Not exactly boom times at AA

 

[InTransit]

The school house at stellar pace would be lucky to get up to 50 guys a month. That's 2 years of 50+ straight recalls just to get the guys back. If the class is at a more realistic 35 a month, it will take 3 years.

Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month

 

[C-150ETOPS]

It's the place to be if you have some sort of a granny fetish and a part time job selling artificial hips.

In that case, you'd be like a 29 year old single guy AA in 1968, in Heaven.

 

[Draginass]

Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month

They used to be able to do 100 a month, but . . .

727 sims gone
F100 sims gone
A300 sims gone

 

[G4G5]

Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month

Its the ramp up time, I believe that during the 1999-2000 days they were doing 2 classes of 50 a month but thats not the case anymore. It would take them quite sometime to go from 0-100 a month.

Back in those days AA was leasing sim time and had quite a few more instructors on staff