American the place to be in a few years?

[G4G5]

I haven't looked at seniority projections in years but this thread made me think that I may have missed something, so I checked.

This thread is way off!

I was hired at 34 back in Aug of 2000. Furloughed at 37. Now at 43 I am projected to retire at #2566 if I go out at 60, hardly any base any seat type numbers. God forbid and I stay to 65 I don't even break the top 1000.

Their are 1892 pilots still out on furlough. if 33% decide to say no thanks, then you are still looking at 1200 guys waiting to get back. The school house at stellar pace would be lucky to get up to 50 guys a month. That's 2 years of 50+ straight recalls just to get the guys back. If the class is at a more realistic 35 a month, it will take 3 years.

Best case is that they start to do recalls when all the age 60 guys turn 65, another 3 years. Sure they may open the doors for a little attrition but that's maybe 100-150 guys a year and the airline is shrinking faster then that, so IMHO it will be minimal numbers at best.

3 years before retirements pick up and 3 years to get everyone back and you are looking at 2015 before AA hires off the street again.

No seat movement for the next 3 years and then no new hires for another 6 years. Not exactly boom times at AA

 

[InTransit]

The school house at stellar pace would be lucky to get up to 50 guys a month. That's 2 years of 50+ straight recalls just to get the guys back. If the class is at a more realistic 35 a month, it will take 3 years.

Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month

 

[C-150ETOPS]

It's the place to be if you have some sort of a granny fetish and a part time job selling artificial hips.

In that case, you'd be like a 29 year old single guy AA in 1968, in Heaven.

 

[Draginass]

Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month

They used to be able to do 100 a month, but . . .

727 sims gone
F100 sims gone
A300 sims gone

 

[G4G5]

Off topic - I thought the school house was capable of more than 50/month

Its the ramp up time, I believe that during the 1999-2000 days they were doing 2 classes of 50 a month but thats not the case anymore. It would take them quite sometime to go from 0-100 a month.

Back in those days AA was leasing sim time and had quite a few more instructors on staff

 

[Mud Eagle]

Contrast that with a RyanAir pilot in Europe. They spend 50k to get their type, then get hired by RyanAir at 23 years old with 250 hours total time. Pay is 85 Euros per hour for the right seat and 130 Euros for the left with a 5 year or so upgrade. These guys are making over 100k from the moment they join the airline industry. They have already earned approximately 1.5-2 million dollars by the time they reach the average age of an AA newhire. This is the carrier that is the supposed bottom feeder of the industry.

Don't forget that the cost of living in Europe is WELL above that in the US. You can barely buy a park bench in the UK for what you can buy a 2,000 ft2 4bed house in most places in the US.

If you were living on $ and spending it in the US, flying for RyanAir would be a great deal.

 

[taters]

Frankly no airline is a place to be and I am trying to find a way out. Not too easy in this economy however.

Damn right man

 

[TWA Dude]

I don't think AA will ever be a good place to work no matter how quick the upgrades are.

 

[AAflyer]

I don't think AA will ever be a good place to work no matter how quick the upgrades are.

No, but probably better than Usairways.

AA

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Don't forget that the cost of living in Europe is WELL above that in the US. You can barely buy a park bench in the UK for what you can buy a 2,000 ft2 4bed house in most places in the US.

If you were living on $ and spending it in the US, flying for RyanAir would be a great deal.

I love it how someone always find an excuse for the US pilots to be the lowest paid pilots in the civilized world. The Ryanair pilots are some of the lowest paid in Europe and they make as much on their first year captain pay as some of our 12 year seniority legacy captains, but since we have walmart I guess that is ok

 

[magrs]

You can have my seniority number!

I retire at #74 in 2032, not comin' back!

 

[flyzimex]

Since you guys keep bringing up RyanAir maybe you should spend some time on pprune and check out what people have to say about them. Do they make decent money, some (captains) even quite good? They sure do. BUT, there are SO many things making one not wanting to work for RyanAir.

Not saying things are rosy at US carriers, but RyanAir takes the cake in my, and many other's, book.

I have JAR and the right to live in the EU and I'd honestly rather work at Walmart than RyanAir. I'd be more proud to work for Wally than O'Leary.

 

[Mud Eagle]

I love it how someone always find an excuse for the US pilots to be the lowest paid pilots in the civilized world. The Ryanair pilots are some of the lowest paid in Europe and they make as much on their first year captain pay as some of our 12 year seniority legacy captains, but since we have walmart I guess that is ok

It's not an excuse for anything. People frequently throw around Euro payscales as a comparison, but rarely grasp the serious economic differences between the cost of living in Europe vs the US.

This goes for jobs outside of aviation as well: the average wage for the "same" job pays higher than in the US. You are paid more, sure, but it costs a lot more, too. It has absolutely nothing to do with Europeans having fairer compensation -- it has everything to do with differences in economies and values of currency that have existed for many decades.

Again, look at the costs of housing -- I was recently living in the UK in an 1,100 ft2 house with 3 bedrooms that rented for $2500 a month, and that was one of the biggest houses in the neighborhood. Others were paying a similar mortgage (or rent) for even smaller, older houses.

It's not some panacea over there.

 

[AA717driver]

No, but probably better than Usairways.

AA

Let's hope it stays that way!


TC

 

[TWA Dude]

No, but probably better than Usairways.
AA

Sorry but I gotta differ with you. We may be locking horns in labor battles but our relations with management is still far superior than the labor/management relations at AA. Unless my furlough is imminent I'll take a deferment if/when AA offers me recall. I don't need to leave the frying pan for the fire.