American Recalls and Hiring

[pdub20s]

I recently heard from a guy on my jump seat that 1 in 8 are actually going to accept a recall and that AA is hiring in 2010. Any truth to this?

 

[WyoHerkdriver]

Hiring in 2010? I would say that is highly unlikely at best. The last recall class was in June and there has been no word on future recall classes. There is a rumor that recalls will resume in March, but I won't believe it until the recall letters are actually sent out.
Keep in mind that there are STILL 1969 remaining on furlough status and an additional 540 Eagle pilots that will presumably be flowing up. My guess is that barring growth at AA (like that will ever happen), it may be 2011 or later before the Eagle guys even begin to flow up. Bottom line is that hiring at AA is likely several years away. Age 65 will really slow things down as far as recalls and hiring. We probably won't see significant retirements until December of 2012 when the old geezers are finally forced out.

 

[NEDude]

Can you imagine, a decade or longer with no pilot hiring at the worlds largest - now second largest - airline.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

There was lots of hiring in 2000-2001. Ask any TWA pilot!

 

[Starscream]

The 1 in 8 acceptance rate will be very likely. Just as the recalls came to an end in May, the acceptance rate among non Eagle flowback furloughees was roughly 1 in 5.

Assuming recalls started today, those next in line have been furloughed for 7 years. The next 900 or so to be called are all ex-TWA, and then the last 300ish are native AAers who were hired summer of 2001. In any event, I doubt very many of them are still unemployed to this day. Many of them probably have fine positions at various LCC/cargo/corporate/foreign companies. The point? It's highly unlikely that more than 10% of the 1200 awaiting a recall are actually going to accept the first offer.

If AA needed 200 bodies, that should take care of the remaining furloughees.

As for Eagle flowthrus, that's a big wildcard. Huge. Approximately 520 Eagle pilots have AA seniority numbers, of which approximately 60% (just an educated guess) are over age 50. Roughly 1/2 of the Eagle pilots with AA seniority numbers are emphatically not interested in flowing to AA, primarily due to the massive paycut and the loss of QOL involved (i.e. DFW based AE pilots being unable to hold DFW at AA for the forseeable future). Also, they don't want to be back on reserve and possibly be furlough fodder.

Will the company attempt to force Eagle flowthru pilots over? That remains to be seen. They have been very quiet on that matter. We know they want all flowthrus to flow to AA to reduce Eagle's longevity. It's rumored that Eagle's top man, PB, was heard saying that when flowthrus are next to go, they will all be given two letters: one thanking them for their service to Eagle, and another letter welcoming them to American Airlines. If they aren't forced to flow, roughly 40-50%, or about 200-250 Eagle pilots, would actually flow to American.

Most of AA's retirments have been early-outs, with a few age 60, and very very few over age 60. So, it's doubtful many will work till they die in the future.

Long story short, hiring could actually begin within a year of recalls resuming. When this will happen is anybody's guess. Too many variables, although some of the AA guys here indicate recalls to resume in the spring.

Possible hiring in 2010.

 

[AA717driver]

Starscream--Good post. BUT! The AA guys coming up on retirement have just lost a huge chunk of their retirement due to the market.

AND, they are flying good int'l. lines on a widebody making around $200k (using vacation to fill up the month...it's complicated), banging LBFM's down South--life is good.

I'm looking for maybe 50-70 numbers a year--none at STL.

Plus, the longer they stay, the more they're screwing AA73 and AAflyer.

TC

 

[Starscream]

The 737 deliveries starting in the winter could possibly require additional pilots, no? Training bubbles, etc.?

 

[jmreii]

The 737 deliveries starting in the winter could possibly require additional pilots, no? Training bubbles, etc.?

The aircraft deliveries are for aircraft retirement and replacements. The economy has got to better than good going forward or all bets are off. peace!

 

[i'mbatman]

Can you imagine, a decade or longer with no pilot hiring at the worlds largest - now second largest - airline.

I think I've read that there was a period in the 1970's or 80's where TWA hadn't hired anyone in 17 years. Crazy. To quote the great pete fusco, "Aviation is a table of feast or a desert of famine."

 

[WyoHerkdriver]

Can you imagine being among the youngest in that first new-hire class? Just think of the career and seniority that say a 26 year old new-hire will enjoy at AA given the lack of ANY hiring in more than ten years. Some guys have (or will) all the luck.

 

[afres bum]

Can you imagine being among the youngest in that first new-hire class? Just think of the career and seniority that say a 26 year old new-hire will enjoy at AA given the lack of ANY hiring in more than ten years. Some guys have (or will) all the luck.

I know a few people that were in their mid 20's 10 years ago at US Air (after a decade of no hiring there) that thought they had all of the luck! (None of them work there anymore)

 

[Whale Rider]

Hiring in 2010? In Aviation years that a Looooong time. I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

 

[jmreii]

I know a few people that were in their mid 20's 10 years ago at US Air (after a decade of no hiring there) that thought they had all of the luck! (None of them work there anymore)

I would like to echo that, there is no way of knowing if american or any other company will be around in 10 years. That goes for both aviation and non-aviation companies.

 

[GIII Instructor]

I find it interesting how everyone seems to have a theory. Dec.13th 2007 legislation passed for the mandatory retirement age to become 65. At the time if someone would have told me I would be roughly 600 numbers more senior at AA due to retirements; I would have thought they were nuts. Bottom line. We'll just have to wait and see. 737 deliveries to begin at the end of Mar; early Apr 2009; Rumor is management is crunching numbers in the month of Dec. to determine if we need to recall next year. Time will tell.

 

[Draginass]

I just don't think they're going to recall anyone in the foreseeable future. Of course, if AA had it's way in the new contract, there would be probably 1500 more furloughs.

There's a lot of moving parts right now -- the 7300 pilot floor arbitration, section 6 negotiations, new 737s, uncertain market, etc etc. I think AA is just going to keep itself understaffed in pilots until more stuff shakes out.

 

[GIII Instructor]

From a management standpoint to be understaffed is not such a bad thing... During the recall BOOM that began in '05; many of the airlines were very aggressive in recalls. United; CAL; DAL. Now United is furloughing almost 1000 pilots; CAL furloughed roughly 150; American was able to stop recalling and those that are on the property are still there. (
Helps when 600 pilots retire as well.)

 

[rydog]

Letter 3 has expired, there will be no eagle flow thrus. Just like there are no more flow back captains due to the disp. bid a few months back. Eagles longevity prob will never be solved.

Even with a 1997 year seniority number, no eagle pilot would flow through and take a $70k/yr pay cut to fly a dinosaur. Only the junior flow throughs with out a number would want to go if they could.

 

[Full of LUV]

How does that translate though?

I find it interesting how everyone seems to have a theory. Dec.13th 2007 legislation passed for the mandatory retirement age to become 65. At the time if someone would have told me I would be roughly 600 numbers more senior at AA due to retirements; I would have thought they were nuts. Bottom line. We'll just have to wait and see. 737 deliveries to begin at the end of Mar; early Apr 2009; Rumor is management is crunching numbers in the month of Dec. to determine if we need to recall next year. Time will tell.

How does that 600 numbers translate into bidding power though? What would have the results been had age 60 retirement still been in effect? Those are the two key questions! ( I have no idea by the way, just asking).

 

[Starscream]

Letter 3 has expired, there will be no eagle flow thrus. Just like there are no more flow back captains due to the disp. bid a few months back. Eagles longevity prob will never be solved.

Even with a 1997 year seniority number, no eagle pilot would flow through and take a $70k/yr pay cut to fly a dinosaur. Only the junior flow throughs with out a number would want to go if they could.

This was already arbitrated, and the ruling was that Eagle pilots who obtained seniority numbers prior to letter expiration were still eligible to flow once new hire classes start. Whether that's anytime in the near future is a separate matter. And no, furloughed AA pilots no longer have the right to flowback, and as it turns out, furloughed AA pilots at AE do not get to exercise super seniority to hold on to the left seat in the event of a displacement.

The views on AA seniority number holders at Eagle varies wildly. Some have decided they will not flow no matter what, even if Eagle was shutting down the next day (someone please explain that logic to me!). Many are leaning towards staying at Eagle but can be swayed if a financial incentive is involved (i.e. huge exit bonus). Some buy into the hype that the sky is falling at Eagle and would flow. Several would flow due to QOL (i.e MIA domicile for FL guys who currently commute to JFK/LGA at Eagle). Some want to flow because of the work rules and because the worst day at AA is better than the best day at AE. Some are actually quite young and want to flow regardless.

There are approximately 520 pilots at Eagle with numbers. My guess: 200 will flow.

Another matter is whether the company can force Eagle captains with numbers to flow to AA. That has been a hot topic in the past, and might be again when we cross the bridge of classes starting at AA.

 

[igneousy2]

What percentage of the Eagle Flow-throughs are pre-TWA? I seem to remember that there are AE pilots still at Eagle that will be senior to all of the TWA guys that are currently furloughed when/if they finally come over even though the TWA guys will come back first.