The 1 in 8 acceptance rate will be very likely. Just as the recalls came to an end in May, the acceptance rate among non Eagle flowback furloughees was roughly 1 in 5.
Assuming recalls started today, those next in line have been furloughed for 7 years. The next 900 or so to be called are all ex-TWA, and then the last 300ish are native AAers who were hired summer of 2001. In any event, I doubt very many of them are still unemployed to this day. Many of them probably have fine positions at various LCC/cargo/corporate/foreign companies. The point? It's highly unlikely that more than 10% of the 1200 awaiting a recall are actually going to accept the first offer.
If AA needed 200 bodies, that should take care of the remaining furloughees.
As for Eagle flowthrus, that's a big wildcard. Huge. Approximately 520 Eagle pilots have AA seniority numbers, of which approximately 60% (just an educated guess) are over age 50. Roughly 1/2 of the Eagle pilots with AA seniority numbers are emphatically not interested in flowing to AA, primarily due to the massive paycut and the loss of QOL involved (i.e. DFW based AE pilots being unable to hold DFW at AA for the forseeable future). Also, they don't want to be back on reserve and possibly be furlough fodder.
Will the company attempt to force Eagle flowthru pilots over? That remains to be seen. They have been very quiet on that matter. We know they want all flowthrus to flow to AA to reduce Eagle's longevity. It's rumored that Eagle's top man, PB, was heard saying that when flowthrus are next to go, they will all be given two letters: one thanking them for their service to Eagle, and another letter welcoming them to American Airlines. If they aren't forced to flow, roughly 40-50%, or about 200-250 Eagle pilots, would actually flow to American.
Most of AA's retirments have been early-outs, with a few age 60, and very very few over age 60. So, it's doubtful many will work till they die in the future.
Long story short, hiring could actually begin within a year of recalls resuming. When this will happen is anybody's guess. Too many variables, although some of the AA guys here indicate recalls to resume in the spring.
Possible hiring in 2010.