Airtran or Usairways?

[TWA Dude]

USAir is a disaster by virtue of the integration. TC

Some would argue USAir was a disaster long before the integration.

(note: the pilots of USAirways had nothing to do with the disasters befalling them prior to the integration. After that is another story.)

 

[Lear70]

New-hires today are looking at a 7-8 year upgrade at airTran.

They're looking at 12-14 years realistically at a combined USAirways/America West integrated list, plus the animosity with everything going on there.

Others are right, QOL is key and, if you can be based at home by going to UAir, then it bears consideration. Otherwise, I wouldn't do it...

AirTran isn't perfect but like others have said, it's a good place to hang your hat (which hopefully will be going along with the jumpseat fee) and, with a new contract worthy of an entire career, I think many people could be happy at airTran for the long-term.

Best of luck to you!

 

[easydoesit]

Lear- I respect you and what you have done for our pilot group. About your 7-8 year upgrade- that is what it is looking like now in our current position if nothing changes. Now if we go into a recession and there is some consolodation, there could be more opportunity for growth. AirTran is a recessionary airline.

I see your point with the 7-8 year upgrades, but a lot will be changing in the next year or so. And yes, it could be worse. I guess I am hoping for green grass.

 

[spitfire1500]

We're having a job fair in MKE in the near future, all you have to do is show up (check out the LCC threads). They say they'll talk to anybody. Gives you a warm fuzzy about whom we might be hiring.

We also have people leaving FL (after 6 months or so) to be a new hire at US Airways. Two of them are from CLT and want to move home, the others must be assuming the grass is greener.

CLT is "superseniorityville" they will still be commuting for a long time.....upgrade time as a consideration..any airline I would consider now would be based on QOL and pay at the FO position that way you dont have expectations ruined and if you get a quicker upgrade it's icining on the cake.....my thoughts for the day...now I gotta get back to surfin porn...my babes are missin' me!!

 

[IFLYASA]

New-hires today are looking at a 7-8 year upgrade at airTran.

They're looking at 12-14 years realistically at a combined USAirways/America West integrated list, plus the animosity with everything going on there.

Others are right, QOL is key and, if you can be based at home by going to UAir, then it bears consideration. Otherwise, I wouldn't do it...

AirTran isn't perfect but like others have said, it's a good place to hang your hat (which hopefully will be going along with the jumpseat fee) and, with a new contract worthy of an entire career, I think many people could be happy at airTran for the long-term.

Best of luck to you!

Why do you say 7-8 years? With DAL/CAL sucking up pilots, and the 737's coming, it seems like it wouldn't be that long. Do you know how many 737's are on order after the 10 for 2008?

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Anything could happen. But they are still saying 3 1/2 year upgrade in the training department (I am just passing on info, not saying it is fact). One of the HR girls came in and said anywhere from 8-15 people have been leaving a month to retire or other opportunities (word is there are a lot of American furloughs that are expected to go back). We are getting 65 aircraft over the next 5 years plus we just signed a contract with Honeywell for a 250 aircraft fleet (the 65 737s would bring us up to a total of 215 aircraft). Better QOL in a new contract would mean more pilots to fly what we currently have. A down economy and majors in consolidation would be a good time for Airtran to expand.

But then again we could get bought out, merged, or shut down. Who knows.

 

[PCL_128]

About another 60 737s are on the way starting next month. Deliveries run through 2012. I think Lear's upgrade estimate is a little bit on the pessimistic side. I would say 5-6 years for a newhire today. His estimate would make sense if there was zero attrition, zero retirements, and everyone upgrading right as their number came up, but that's just not going to happen. We still have some attrition to mother Delta and others, medical retirements and other early retirements will still happen occasionally, and plenty of guys will wait for upgrade for a while for QOL reasons (I'll probably be one of them). Because of all that, I think the 7-8 years is a little bit long. But in any case, it will be a lot quicker than an upgrade at AAA.

 

[Lear70]

Yes, I have those numbers for 737 FIRM deliveries, and it's made me rethink the HR people might be pretty accurate on their hiring numbers for the year:

2008 - 10
2009 - 14
2010 - 14
2011 - 13
2012 - 12

DAL and CAL aren't hiring as many airTran guys as you'd think. There's attrition, but the numbers are slowing a little from what it was in the Spring of last year and most of the attrition is from the F/O ranks.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]So, figuring 8 per month of voluntary attrition (maybe 2 of which are CA's) and another 2 or 3 per month in medical (half CA's), plus 2 or 3 per month in retirements, is 12-14 per month for attrition, 5 of which are CA's.

So, we need approx 150 pilots per year to replace those who are leaving, plus staffing at roughly 10:1 per new aircraft (5 crews per) equals:

2008 - 250 new-hires, 120 upgrades.
2009 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.
2010 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.
2011 - 280 new-hires, 125 upgrades
2012 - 270 new-hires, 125 upgrades.

You have to remember, AAI has hired around 300 pilots per year the last 3 years in a row (2004-2007) so a guy hired today would have 1,000 F/O's roughly ahead of him on the seniority list to upgrade.



Puts 2008 around the 4-5 year mark for upgrade, 2009 and 2010 at the 5-6 year mark, 2011 at the 6-7 year mark (my seniority), 2012 close to 8+ years.


And all that is IF they don't defer/sell any more deliveries like they've been doing lately. The above is one of the things I've been trying to explain to the pilots at airTran as the basis of why F/O rates need to come up off the floor. You're going to be in that seat for a LONG time unless a BIG increase in deliveries comes down the pipe...

[/FONT]

 

[Lear70]

Anything could happen. But they are still saying 3 1/2 year upgrade in the training department (I am just passing on info, not saying it is fact).

That's about right... for a CA who is upgrading TODAY. He/she has been here just shy of 4 years and, since the first deliveries of this year don't pick up for a few more months, will be right at 4 years, give or take a month or two.

One of the HR girls came in and said anywhere from 8-15 people have been leaving a month to retire or other opportunities (word is there are a lot of American furloughs that are expected to go back).

That could factor into it... UAir was believed to cause a lot of attrition and it turned into "much ado about nothing"... Arguably AA would be a better job to return to, and many will likely go, but who knows what it will be as it actually happens.

We are getting 65 aircraft over the next 5 years plus we just signed a contract with Honeywell for a 250 aircraft fleet (the 65 737s would bring us up to a total of 215 aircraft). Better QOL in a new contract would mean more pilots to fly what we currently have.

I don't know how much more you can realistically expect QOL to improve at AAI in the next contract for lineholders. The trip and duty rigs are already very good. That's why the T.A. give-back in certain areas of the work rules made so many people irritated.

A decreased max duty day would certainly require some additional staffing (which would be fought tooth and nail), but better-paying trip and duty rigs would likely just make them build more efficient trips and increase daily flying utilization, and would likely not require an increase in staffing. Quite the opposite, increased utilization would actually DECREASE staffing requirements.

A down economy and majors in consolidation would be a good time for Airtran to expand.

But then again we could get bought out, merged, or shut down. Who knows.

Yeah... crazy industry, eh?

 

[IFLYASA]

Yes, I have those numbers for 737 FIRM deliveries, and it's made me rethink the HR people might be pretty accurate on their hiring numbers for the year:

2008 - 10
2009 - 14
2010 - 14
2011 - 13
2012 - 12

DAL and CAL aren't hiring as many airTran guys as you'd think. There's attrition, but the numbers are slowing a little from what it was in the Spring of last year and most of the attrition is from the F/O ranks.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]So, figuring 8 per month of voluntary attrition (maybe 2 of which are CA's) and another 2 or 3 per month in medical (half CA's), plus 2 or 3 per month in retirements, is 12-14 per month for attrition, 5 of which are CA's. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]So, we need approx 150 pilots per year to replace those who are leaving, plus staffing at roughly 10:1 per new aircraft (5 crews per) equals:[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2008 - 250 new-hires, 120 upgrades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2009 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2010 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2011 - 280 new-hires, 125 upgrades[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2012 - 270 new-hires, 125 upgrades.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]You have to remember, AAI has hired around 300 pilots per year the last 3 years in a row (2004-2007) so a guy hired today would have 1,000 F/O's roughly ahead of him on the seniority list to upgrade.[/FONT]



[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]Puts 2008 around the 4-5 year mark for upgrade, 2009 and 2010 at the 5-6 year mark, 2011 at the 6-7 year mark (my seniority), 2012 close to 8+ years.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]And all that is IF they don't defer/sell any more deliveries like they've been doing lately. The above is one of the things I've been trying to explain to the pilots at airTran as the basis of why F/O rates need to come up off the floor. You're going to be in that seat for a LONG time unless a BIG increase in deliveries comes down the pipe...[/FONT]

Great Post!!