Airtran or Usairways?

[Captzaahlie]

Anyone have any earth shattering thoughts on the choice? Thanks in advance.....

 

[Secret Squirrel]

There are a ton of furloughed US airways guys that did not go back from Airtran. Some I know that have said there is no way they would return to that disaster. Especially after the arbitrators ruling and all the cuts in QOL the pilot group has taken.

 

[Max Powers]

I use CASM as a guide because it is a good measure, albeit not an absolute measure, of a companies competitiveness. AirTran is 9.58 and USairways is in the 14.00 range. In a perfect world the cheaper priced product will win out. Of course there are other factors for you to consider.

 

[newnan]

Anyone have any earth shattering thoughts on the choice? Thanks in advance.....

We're having a job fair in MKE in the near future, all you have to do is show up (check out the LCC threads). They say they'll talk to anybody. Gives you a warm fuzzy about whom we might be hiring.

We also have people leaving FL (after 6 months or so) to be a new hire at US Airways. Two of them are from CLT and want to move home, the others must be assuming the grass is greener.

 

[AA717driver]

IMO, there is no choice. (Even if you don't get to fly the 717 initially... )

USAir is a disaster by virtue of the integration. TC

 

[AV80R]

Citrus!

Citrus is a much safer bet in my humble opinion. The USAirways' work environment will be very poisonous for years to come due to the arranged marriage between USAir and AWA. Airtran has very new equipment and a topnotch pilot group. Also, they have their own union - NPA - which is a big plus in my book as I'm not an ALPA fan.

I have to disclose that I’m biased in favor of Airtran as I used to work there and had a great time flying the 717. I always dreamed of international flying though; I was also hoping for a more stable (a.k.a. less 'passenger dependant' :laugh: ) work environment which is why I left for UPS. I did have a great time at AT though and while there decided that purple or big brown were the only airlines I’d leave for.
I lucked out and got a call from UPS but I’m sure I’d have had a pretty nice career at AT too had I stayed there.

Recently a buddy of mine was hired at AT and at USAirways at the same time - he chose USAirways and I wish him luck, however I think he'd have been much happier and his career would have been ‘safer’ at Airtran. Of course, things can change tomorrow.

Either way, good luck with your choice.

 

[SkiFishFly]

Where are you going to live?
US Air will probably sit out the upcoming round of consolidation. AirTran might not (they might get bought).
I like working at AirTran and personally would not leave for US Airways.

 

[Dr. Rumack]

It is like going to jail and being given the choice of bunking with Bubba or Slim. Either way you're probably going to be screwed.

The real answer is that is a gamble one way or the other as to the health of the companies so chase QOL with this decision. I really wanted to live in PHX and wound up at Cactus and could not be happier all things considered. If I really wanted to live in ATL I would have sought aT and am sure would be happy there as well. If you are not, by nature, a happy person you will be miserable at either.

 

[AV80R]

... If you are not, by nature, a happy person you will be miserable at either...

Very good point but I think it applies to all airlines and all professions. It's up to you to decide what makes you happy!

 

[On Your Six]

You'll probably upgrade faster at Air Tran. If the DAL/NWA merger comes to fruition, all bets are off as many new combinations could take place - and both Air Tran and USAirways could be in play... I'd still go with Air Tran if a quicker upgrade is important to you.

 

[TWA Dude]

USAir is a disaster by virtue of the integration. TC

Some would argue USAir was a disaster long before the integration.

(note: the pilots of USAirways had nothing to do with the disasters befalling them prior to the integration. After that is another story.)

 

[Lear70]

New-hires today are looking at a 7-8 year upgrade at airTran.

They're looking at 12-14 years realistically at a combined USAirways/America West integrated list, plus the animosity with everything going on there.

Others are right, QOL is key and, if you can be based at home by going to UAir, then it bears consideration. Otherwise, I wouldn't do it...

AirTran isn't perfect but like others have said, it's a good place to hang your hat (which hopefully will be going along with the jumpseat fee) and, with a new contract worthy of an entire career, I think many people could be happy at airTran for the long-term.

Best of luck to you!

 

[easydoesit]

Lear- I respect you and what you have done for our pilot group. About your 7-8 year upgrade- that is what it is looking like now in our current position if nothing changes. Now if we go into a recession and there is some consolodation, there could be more opportunity for growth. AirTran is a recessionary airline.

I see your point with the 7-8 year upgrades, but a lot will be changing in the next year or so. And yes, it could be worse. I guess I am hoping for green grass.

 

[spitfire1500]

We're having a job fair in MKE in the near future, all you have to do is show up (check out the LCC threads). They say they'll talk to anybody. Gives you a warm fuzzy about whom we might be hiring.

We also have people leaving FL (after 6 months or so) to be a new hire at US Airways. Two of them are from CLT and want to move home, the others must be assuming the grass is greener.

CLT is "superseniorityville" they will still be commuting for a long time.....upgrade time as a consideration..any airline I would consider now would be based on QOL and pay at the FO position that way you dont have expectations ruined and if you get a quicker upgrade it's icining on the cake.....my thoughts for the day...now I gotta get back to surfin porn...my babes are missin' me!!

 

[IFLYASA]

New-hires today are looking at a 7-8 year upgrade at airTran.

They're looking at 12-14 years realistically at a combined USAirways/America West integrated list, plus the animosity with everything going on there.

Others are right, QOL is key and, if you can be based at home by going to UAir, then it bears consideration. Otherwise, I wouldn't do it...

AirTran isn't perfect but like others have said, it's a good place to hang your hat (which hopefully will be going along with the jumpseat fee) and, with a new contract worthy of an entire career, I think many people could be happy at airTran for the long-term.

Best of luck to you!

Why do you say 7-8 years? With DAL/CAL sucking up pilots, and the 737's coming, it seems like it wouldn't be that long. Do you know how many 737's are on order after the 10 for 2008?

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Anything could happen. But they are still saying 3 1/2 year upgrade in the training department (I am just passing on info, not saying it is fact). One of the HR girls came in and said anywhere from 8-15 people have been leaving a month to retire or other opportunities (word is there are a lot of American furloughs that are expected to go back). We are getting 65 aircraft over the next 5 years plus we just signed a contract with Honeywell for a 250 aircraft fleet (the 65 737s would bring us up to a total of 215 aircraft). Better QOL in a new contract would mean more pilots to fly what we currently have. A down economy and majors in consolidation would be a good time for Airtran to expand.

But then again we could get bought out, merged, or shut down. Who knows.

 

[PCL_128]

About another 60 737s are on the way starting next month. Deliveries run through 2012. I think Lear's upgrade estimate is a little bit on the pessimistic side. I would say 5-6 years for a newhire today. His estimate would make sense if there was zero attrition, zero retirements, and everyone upgrading right as their number came up, but that's just not going to happen. We still have some attrition to mother Delta and others, medical retirements and other early retirements will still happen occasionally, and plenty of guys will wait for upgrade for a while for QOL reasons (I'll probably be one of them). Because of all that, I think the 7-8 years is a little bit long. But in any case, it will be a lot quicker than an upgrade at AAA.

 

[Lear70]

Yes, I have those numbers for 737 FIRM deliveries, and it's made me rethink the HR people might be pretty accurate on their hiring numbers for the year:

2008 - 10
2009 - 14
2010 - 14
2011 - 13
2012 - 12

DAL and CAL aren't hiring as many airTran guys as you'd think. There's attrition, but the numbers are slowing a little from what it was in the Spring of last year and most of the attrition is from the F/O ranks.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]So, figuring 8 per month of voluntary attrition (maybe 2 of which are CA's) and another 2 or 3 per month in medical (half CA's), plus 2 or 3 per month in retirements, is 12-14 per month for attrition, 5 of which are CA's.

So, we need approx 150 pilots per year to replace those who are leaving, plus staffing at roughly 10:1 per new aircraft (5 crews per) equals:

2008 - 250 new-hires, 120 upgrades.
2009 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.
2010 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.
2011 - 280 new-hires, 125 upgrades
2012 - 270 new-hires, 125 upgrades.

You have to remember, AAI has hired around 300 pilots per year the last 3 years in a row (2004-2007) so a guy hired today would have 1,000 F/O's roughly ahead of him on the seniority list to upgrade.



Puts 2008 around the 4-5 year mark for upgrade, 2009 and 2010 at the 5-6 year mark, 2011 at the 6-7 year mark (my seniority), 2012 close to 8+ years.


And all that is IF they don't defer/sell any more deliveries like they've been doing lately. The above is one of the things I've been trying to explain to the pilots at airTran as the basis of why F/O rates need to come up off the floor. You're going to be in that seat for a LONG time unless a BIG increase in deliveries comes down the pipe...

[/FONT]

 

[Lear70]

Anything could happen. But they are still saying 3 1/2 year upgrade in the training department (I am just passing on info, not saying it is fact).

That's about right... for a CA who is upgrading TODAY. He/she has been here just shy of 4 years and, since the first deliveries of this year don't pick up for a few more months, will be right at 4 years, give or take a month or two.

One of the HR girls came in and said anywhere from 8-15 people have been leaving a month to retire or other opportunities (word is there are a lot of American furloughs that are expected to go back).

That could factor into it... UAir was believed to cause a lot of attrition and it turned into "much ado about nothing"... Arguably AA would be a better job to return to, and many will likely go, but who knows what it will be as it actually happens.

We are getting 65 aircraft over the next 5 years plus we just signed a contract with Honeywell for a 250 aircraft fleet (the 65 737s would bring us up to a total of 215 aircraft). Better QOL in a new contract would mean more pilots to fly what we currently have.

I don't know how much more you can realistically expect QOL to improve at AAI in the next contract for lineholders. The trip and duty rigs are already very good. That's why the T.A. give-back in certain areas of the work rules made so many people irritated.

A decreased max duty day would certainly require some additional staffing (which would be fought tooth and nail), but better-paying trip and duty rigs would likely just make them build more efficient trips and increase daily flying utilization, and would likely not require an increase in staffing. Quite the opposite, increased utilization would actually DECREASE staffing requirements.

A down economy and majors in consolidation would be a good time for Airtran to expand.

But then again we could get bought out, merged, or shut down. Who knows.

Yeah... crazy industry, eh?

 

[IFLYASA]

Yes, I have those numbers for 737 FIRM deliveries, and it's made me rethink the HR people might be pretty accurate on their hiring numbers for the year:

2008 - 10
2009 - 14
2010 - 14
2011 - 13
2012 - 12

DAL and CAL aren't hiring as many airTran guys as you'd think. There's attrition, but the numbers are slowing a little from what it was in the Spring of last year and most of the attrition is from the F/O ranks.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]So, figuring 8 per month of voluntary attrition (maybe 2 of which are CA's) and another 2 or 3 per month in medical (half CA's), plus 2 or 3 per month in retirements, is 12-14 per month for attrition, 5 of which are CA's. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]So, we need approx 150 pilots per year to replace those who are leaving, plus staffing at roughly 10:1 per new aircraft (5 crews per) equals:[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2008 - 250 new-hires, 120 upgrades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2009 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2010 - 330 new-hires, 130 upgrades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2011 - 280 new-hires, 125 upgrades[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]2012 - 270 new-hires, 125 upgrades.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]You have to remember, AAI has hired around 300 pilots per year the last 3 years in a row (2004-2007) so a guy hired today would have 1,000 F/O's roughly ahead of him on the seniority list to upgrade.[/FONT]



[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]Puts 2008 around the 4-5 year mark for upgrade, 2009 and 2010 at the 5-6 year mark, 2011 at the 6-7 year mark (my seniority), 2012 close to 8+ years.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]And all that is IF they don't defer/sell any more deliveries like they've been doing lately. The above is one of the things I've been trying to explain to the pilots at airTran as the basis of why F/O rates need to come up off the floor. You're going to be in that seat for a LONG time unless a BIG increase in deliveries comes down the pipe...[/FONT]

Great Post!!

 

[PCL_128]

Lear, right now we're staffed at just over 12 pilots per airplane, which seems to be about right for our staffing. That would bring up your numbers a bit, plus you're not accounting for the guys like me that don't intend to upgrade into a reserve line unless reserve rules improve a whole hell of a lot. I and a lot of other FOs will wait until we can at least hold a build-up. That means that the guys junior to us who are just wanting a quick upgrade will get their slot sooner than the straight numbers would make it look like.

 

[mnboyev]

Ahhh... your both right...

 

[Lear70]

Lear, right now we're staffed at just over 12 pilots per airplane, which seems to be about right for our staffing.

That's true, but there's just shy of 50 guys out on long-term medical issues that are on the seniority list, plus the management-types that are on the seniority list also, plus union guys on full-time buy. As the seniority list grows, those numbers go up, too.

It's probably closer to 11:1, and maybe frees up an extra 10-15 CA slots per year.

That would bring up your numbers a bit, plus you're not accounting for the guys like me that don't intend to upgrade into a reserve line unless reserve rules improve a whole hell of a lot. I and a lot of other FOs will wait until we can at least hold a build-up. That means that the guys junior to us who are just wanting a quick upgrade will get their slot sooner than the straight numbers would make it look like.

That's true, but how many of those do you think there are? For a single guy living in domicile, sure, bypass on 5th year F/O pay is still livable (although I wouldn't advise ever bypassing, you never know when the music will stop), but I can't imagine there are that many to impact upgrades by that much with a seniority list of over 2,000 peeps.

Could be wrong, I have been before.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Thanks for an easy thread... AirTran, hands down.

But then again, I expected US Air to have been out of business a few years ago, yet they are still here. Having first hand experience with America West's management team and knowing that US Air's profits are far less than the concessions made by their employees, I'd say AirTran.

Also, AirTran could benefit from the Delta merger. Everyone says that Delta will not allow further market erosion, but it might not be Delta's choice. (not like Delta ever decided to give AAI 30% of the ATL O&D market)

The distraction, operational and financial cost has to weigh in AAI's favor. Meanwhile US Airways more than ever looks to be odd man out in the international arena.

Others have mentioned AirTran's fleet and upgrade potential. My friends who were pretty hard core "Widget Heads" are not jumping the fence to come to Delta - they are happy and staying put - tells you something.

 

[PCL_128]

That's true, but how many of those do you think there are?

Just 6 months ago I would have said "not many," but I think that's changed with the resurgence of URPs and the elimination of the ability to drop reserve days. I know the latter is what has made me decide that upgrading into a reserve line isn't worthwhile.Just 6 months ago I would have said "not many," but I think that's changed with the resurgence of URPs and the elimination of the ability to drop reserve days. I know the latter is what has made me decide that upgrading into a reserve line isn't worthwhile.

Also, keep in mind that both of us were predicting 5-year upgrades at Pinnacle a few years ago, and it actually went the other way to street Captains. Trying to peg upgrade times isn't an easy game.

 

[Lear70]

Just 6 months ago I would have said "not many," but I think that's changed with the resurgence of URPs and the elimination of the ability to drop reserve days. I know the latter is what has made me decide that upgrading into a reserve line isn't worthwhile.Just 6 months ago I would have said "not many," but I think that's changed with the resurgence of URPs and the elimination of the ability to drop reserve days. I know the latter is what has made me decide that upgrading into a reserve line isn't worthwhile.

No doubt. IMHO, it's another game of "let's take something away so that they have to waste negotiating capital to get it back".

Also, keep in mind that both of us were predicting 5-year upgrades at Pinnacle a few years ago, and it actually went the other way to street Captains. Trying to peg upgrade times isn't an easy game.

True. What changed it however was the opening of the flood gates of attrition as the majors started hiring all of the PCL CA's. I don't know if we'd see that kind of attrition here, and certainly not on the CA side...

Wish I had a crystal ball... might still have a job right now if I'd have known the company was going to really step THAT far out of the bounds of reasonable behavior and open themselves to the kind of litigation they're about to get served...

 

[Dashcaptain]

I hit 3 years on the 13th and pilots from my class should be going into upgrade in March. I am going to miss it by about 2-3 numbers. I have a 2 leg commute and am not going to bypass. You just never know what may happen here.

Good luck.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

One more thing to consider is the opening of probably two more pilot bases. The company is fighting for virtual bases to keep the addition pilots requirements down but that will still add reserves in base. If the union has its way and does not allow virtual bases then it will be considerably more. Plus who knows how seniority will play out in the new bases. Bases that are not very popular (with the amount of commuters it could be atlanta) could go even more junior.

 

[AV80R]

Quick update regarding my previous post:

"Recently a buddy of mine was hired at AT and at USAirways at the same time - he chose USAirways and I wish him luck, however I think he'd have been much happier and his career would have been ‘safer’ at Airtran. Of course, things can change tomorrow."

My buddy who's still in training at USAirways is now bailing for NWA - apparently the morale is horrible over there. I doubt it'll be much better at NWA though. In my opinion he should've picked Airtran to begin with.

 

[airline#5]

He should have picked a different profession if he really valued his future.