AirTran MEC CYA

[XRMEFLYER]

Its a little bit depressing to see that we are still litigating this.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Its a little bit depressing to see that we are still litigating this.

It will end someday. Probably the day after the last guy on the list retires. It all comes down to this the law says "fair and equitable". In the real world only 3 things matter 1. Pay 2. Quality of life 3. Job stability. In all cases EXCEPT pilots arbitrators factor these 3 factors and come up with a list. In the case of pilots the ONLY thing they try and do is limit seat movement and training costs and they come up with a list that reflects that. The SWA pilots wanted a staple to gain all 3 at the expense of the AAI pilots. The AAI pilots wanted to go to the kangaroo court of arbitration because they knew they would gain all 3 at the expense of the SWA pilots. The CEO rejected both and handed us a list where most people will either keep roughly the same QOL and pay or lose QOL but gain pay. The downsizing of ATL and the departure of the 717 are separate issues from the SLI but the AAI pilots like to roll them in to make their case. Bickering about this keeps them from talking about real issues like being down to 652 airframes the day the walls come down with no guarantee the fleet grows from there.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Bickering about this keeps them from talking about real issues like being down to 652 airframes the day the walls come down with no guarantee the fleet grows from there.

Welcome to the discussion Mr. Debbie Downer. Always a pleasure to see you join in.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Yeah everyone hates when I interject with facts. Latest fleet projections are 688 airframes on 1/1/2015 BUT that includes 36 717s that won't be in the schedule. By my Indiana public school math that leaves 652 airframes producing block hours. This makes sense because replacing 88 717s with -800s allows the fleet to shrink by 29 airframes while producing the same ASMs assuming flat block hours. The other 17 I can only assume are due to the fact that the 717s aren't producing that many block hours. The size of fleet in 2015 and beyond will depend on the classic fleet retirements which is somewhat unknown.

 

[humveedriver]

Southwest Airlines has revised its delivery schedule and order with Boeing to shift more of its new aircraft purchases to the more fuel-efficient 737-7 MAX, and reduce some near-term capital spending.

The low-cost carrier also agreed to acquire 10 used Boeing 737-700 aircraft for delivery in 2014 and 2015 to fill the hole created by delivery schedule deferrals and keep its fleet from shrinking.

Southwest continues to shop for more used aircraft. ?We will continue to monitor the pre-owned market for attractive opportunities,? Chairman, President and CEO Gary Kelly said at the airline?s annual shareholder meeting on May 15. Those aircraft that Southwest has already agreed to purchase have about the same average age as the rest of the carrier?s fleet, which is 8-9 years, and Kelly says the airline will strive to keep its average fleet age in that range when considering future used aircraft acquisitions.

?We can buy very good airplanes with 10-15 years of remaining useful life,? which then would be replaced with the MAX, he added. Southwest, which is the launch customer for the 737-7, would prefer to acquire only new aircraft, but the MAX is not available until after 2017, Kelly noted. The airline also needs aircraft before 2017 to fill some gaps created while AirTran Airways aircraft are in maintenance for conversion to the Southwest brand.

Kelly confirms that the 737-7 is intended to replace the carrier?s 143-seat 737-700s. With the Boeing order restructuring, Southwest will?eventually?be getting a lot more of them. The airline previously planned to receive 150 Boeing 737-8 aircraft between 2017-2022. Under the new schedule it still will get those on an altered timetable (2017-2024), but also will take delivery of 30 737-7s: 15 in 2019, 14 in 2020 and one in 2021.

Southwest was able to make that shift by converting 30 Boeing 737NG firm orders in 2017 and 2018 to MAX firm orders, deferred to 2019-2021. It also converted 12 737NG options in 2014 and 2015, and 29 in 2017 and 2018 to 737 MAX options, with delivery deferred beyond 2024. The order changes increase Southwest?s 737 MAX options from 150 to 191.

The airline also has the right to revise its MAX order.

For 2014, five Boeing 737-700 firm orders have been converted to 737-800s, five options were exercised for 737-800 deliveries from Boeing, and five options to purchase Next Generation aircraft were relinquished. Five options in 2015 were also relinquished.

The restructured aircraft delivery schedule will reduce the airline?s capital spending for firm orders through 2018 by more than $500 million. It also defers nearly $2 billion in potential capital spending on option aircraft deliveries beyond 2018.


-That article is all I know about SWA fleet plans. It basically says they want to buy/lease certified pre owned -700's instead of brand new ones. Keeping the Max as the true future of SWA. Ghetto I'm not sure why you would even pretend to guess what the fleet is going to look like in 2015. Since we don't have the schedule I would say its impossible to guess. What I suspect is there will be more international frequency then what Airtran currently has. Post SOC, we have barely started to scratch the surface on opportunities in Mexico. CUN has seen a little ramp up, but I think Cabo, CUN and a couple others are going to get some serious yearly frequency. The island stuff and new destinations may take longer. Just my humble opinion, because of their seasonality.

 

[race#53]

Ty,
Proof that if you suffer through all of the BS on FI you will come across a gem like the photo of the S-42...thanks,
Dennis in Chicago

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

In the past I was just making educated guesses about fleet plan. The company and SWAPA and I would assume ALPA know what the fleet plan is. If you know where to look you can find the same info that I just repeated.

 

[SWA Bubba]

Yeah everyone hates when I interject with facts. Latest fleet projections are 688 airframes on 1/1/2015 BUT that includes 36 717s that won't be in the schedule. By my Indiana public school math that leaves 652 airframes producing block hours. This makes sense because replacing 88 717s with -800s allows the fleet to shrink by 29 airframes while producing the same ASMs assuming flat block hours. The other 17 I can only assume are due to the fact that the 717s aren't producing that many block hours. The size of fleet in 2015 and beyond will depend on the classic fleet retirements which is somewhat unknown.

Yes, you throw in some facts, alright,... but then you jump to conclusions not supported by those facts, and act as you have all the answers. The reality is, that you cherry pick a few facts to make it look like your pre-formed and somewhat bizarre pessimistic conclusions sound valid.

You are the same guy who a while back used your "facts" to supposedly "prove" impending Southwest furloughs. Literally every single one of your posts screamed about these furloughs (although you did occasionally throw in "facts" about "givebacks and concessions" in our upcoming Section 6).

Regarding airframes: Your "loss of 29 airframes" conclusion from cherry-picked facts is complete BS. Gary has said numerous times that the 717s going away are being replaced by aircraft purchases and life extension of a bunch of -300s. How in the hell did your mind leap to the conclusion that he'll replace the exact number of seats from those 717s solely with 737-800 purchases?! Seriously, where do you get this crap?

He's already spent money to keep -300s longer, that were slated to be replaced (reskinning & winglets, GPS, upcoming evolve interiors) for this exact reason. Do your "facts" tell you that he's going to throw away all that upgrade money by retiring those specific -300s before recouping his investment?

As far as replacement aircraft go, he's been saying for over a year now that Southwest is looking at used -700s to augment 717 replacement plans. And, in fact, he's already signed for 10 of these jets from WestJet to start. Do you think it occurred to him that he can operate a 737-700 for the exact same cost as he can a 717 (an -800 would be more)? Do you think that it occurred to him that as the 737-MAX gets closer in the next year or three (during the 717 divestment schedule), he can get used -700s even cheaper?

The company's line is that they will keep the fleet flat until he can attain 15% ROIC. NOT that they will keep ASMs exactly the same and reduce the fleet by 5%. Give it a rest, dude. Seriously. All I can say is that thank God that YOU'RE not in charge of anything. Geez, if YOU were in charge of this airline, we'd be using our profits to buy going-out-of-business signs for the big firesale that's obviously just around the corner. Why, I'd bet that even General Lee is thinking right now about you, "man, THAT guy sure is a Southwest hater!"

Indiana Ghetto Jet dude: We're not gonna' furlough, and we're not giving concessions in our Section 6. Feel better now?

Bubba

 

[SWA Bubba]

In the past I was just making educated guesses about fleet plan. The company and SWAPA and I would assume ALPA know what the fleet plan is. If you know where to look you can find the same info that I just repeated.

And by "educated guesses," I assume you really mean, "the most pessimistic possible outcome I can describe, even if it means discounting precedent, calling the entire Southwest management team liars, and ignoring what's actually happening around me," then I suppose you may be right.

Bubba

 

[PropPiedmont]

Indiana Ghetto Jet dude: We're not gonna' furlough, and we're not giving concessions in our Section 6. Feel better now?

Bubba

Our concessions usually come in the form of Side Letters after we vote in a new contract. SWAs best tactic, yet a lot of pilots at SWA don't recognize it.

 

[Ty Webb]

. . . . Give it a rest, dude. Seriously. All I can say is that thank God that YOU'RE not in charge of anything. Geez, if YOU were in charge of this airline, we'd be using our profits to buy going-out-of-business signs for the big firesale that's obviously just around the corner. Why, I'd bet that even General Lee is thinking right now about you, "man, THAT guy sure is a Southwest hater!"

Indiana Ghetto Jet dude: We're not gonna' furlough, and we're not giving concessions in our Section 6. Feel better now?

Bubba

AMEN. :beer:

We've got some guys like him over here . . . . . The SKY is FALLING! PEAK OIL! GLOBAL WARMING!!! FREAKIN' ZOMBIES WILL EAT YOUR BRAINS!

:laugh:

 

[FlyinGuy]

Freakin' zombies! I hate zombies!!

 

[texman]

Yeah everyone hates when I interject with facts. Latest fleet projections are 688 airframes on 1/1/2015 BUT that includes 36 717s that won't be in the schedule. By my Indiana public school math that leaves 652 airframes producing block hours. This makes sense because replacing 88 717s with -800s allows the fleet to shrink by 29 airframes while producing the same ASMs assuming flat block hours. The other 17 I can only assume are due to the fact that the 717s aren't producing that many block hours. The size of fleet in 2015 and beyond will depend on the classic fleet retirements which is somewhat unknown.

Just to let you know brother, the 717 deal with Boeing and DL will allow us to get super cheap deals on low time 737NG's. This used NG's will replace the 717. It will be a flat fleet. Flat fleet will = new hires through Pilot retirements.

 

[SWA Bubba]

Freakin' zombies! I hate zombies!!

I recommend Hornady Zombiemax hollow points--just to be sure... :uzi:

Bubba

 

[Phlintstone]

I recommend Hornady Zombiemax hollow points--just to be sure... :uzi:

Bubba

I picked up a couple thousand last summer, just in case the Walking Dead came to fruition.

Phred

 

[scoreboardII]

Southwest Airlines has revised its delivery schedule and order with Boeing to shift more of its new aircraft purchases to the more fuel-efficient 737-7 MAX, and reduce some near-term capital spending.

The low-cost carrier also agreed to acquire 10 used Boeing 737-700 aircraft for delivery in 2014 and 2015 to fill the hole created by delivery schedule deferrals and keep its fleet from shrinking.

Southwest continues to shop for more used aircraft. ?We will continue to monitor the pre-owned market for attractive opportunities,? Chairman, President and CEO Gary Kelly said at the airline?s annual shareholder meeting on May 15. Those aircraft that Southwest has already agreed to purchase have about the same average age as the rest of the carrier?s fleet, which is 8-9 years, and Kelly says the airline will strive to keep its average fleet age in that range when considering future used aircraft acquisitions.

?We can buy very good airplanes with 10-15 years of remaining useful life,? which then would be replaced with the MAX, he added. Southwest, which is the launch customer for the 737-7, would prefer to acquire only new aircraft, but the MAX is not available until after 2017, Kelly noted. The airline also needs aircraft before 2017 to fill some gaps created while AirTran Airways aircraft are in maintenance for conversion to the Southwest brand.

Kelly confirms that the 737-7 is intended to replace the carrier?s 143-seat 737-700s. With the Boeing order restructuring, Southwest will?eventually?be getting a lot more of them. The airline previously planned to receive 150 Boeing 737-8 aircraft between 2017-2022. Under the new schedule it still will get those on an altered timetable (2017-2024), but also will take delivery of 30 737-7s: 15 in 2019, 14 in 2020 and one in 2021.

Southwest was able to make that shift by converting 30 Boeing 737NG firm orders in 2017 and 2018 to MAX firm orders, deferred to 2019-2021. It also converted 12 737NG options in 2014 and 2015, and 29 in 2017 and 2018 to 737 MAX options, with delivery deferred beyond 2024. The order changes increase Southwest?s 737 MAX options from 150 to 191.

The airline also has the right to revise its MAX order.

For 2014, five Boeing 737-700 firm orders have been converted to 737-800s, five options were exercised for 737-800 deliveries from Boeing, and five options to purchase Next Generation aircraft were relinquished. Five options in 2015 were also relinquished.

The restructured aircraft delivery schedule will reduce the airline?s capital spending for firm orders through 2018 by more than $500 million. It also defers nearly $2 billion in potential capital spending on option aircraft deliveries beyond 2018.


-That article is all I know about SWA fleet plans. It basically says they want to buy/lease certified pre owned -700's instead of brand new ones. Keeping the Max as the true future of SWA. Ghetto I'm not sure why you would even pretend to guess what the fleet is going to look like in 2015. Since we don't have the schedule I would say its impossible to guess. What I suspect is there will be more international frequency then what Airtran currently has. Post SOC, we have barely started to scratch the surface on opportunities in Mexico. CUN has seen a little ramp up, but I think Cabo, CUN and a couple others are going to get some serious yearly frequency. The island stuff and new destinations may take longer. Just my humble opinion, because of their seasonality.

The last time SWA had a multi year advertising spree to buy used jets (early 2000's), they bought TWO. The next time (late 2000's), TWO more. I'll believe it when they are sitting on the ramp.

 

[scoreboardII]

"no harm" being defined as not one pilot on your side ever having less relative seniority the entire length of their careers as a result of the merger. .

Yet, not one of your pilots will suffer one cent of lost income through their career here when it comes to the end game money in the bank. Most will make out handsomely. Starting 2015.

 

[redflyer65]

I think it's the beginning of things to come. I see more used jets being purchased over the next several years. The goal is to get to the Max.

The value of the exsisting used 737's dropped immediately when Boieng announced the Max. Southwest is going to use that to their advantage.

But like Scoreboard, I'll believe it when I see it. As a shareholder, I think it's a great move.

 

[scoreboardII]

I think I left out the biggest point , the last time used aircraft where purchased, and orders for new jets slid, SWA bought an airline. I think that has more to do with sliding purchase dates than MAX delivery schedules.

The drop in used jet pricing is not as precipitous as is been made out to be.

It's like saying I'm not going to buy the new car now which gets me 40MPG, because in six years I could get one which gets 45MPG. So I'm going to spend almost as much on a used one which still only gets 40MPG, and pay for the higher maintenance costs, transitions costs, and still buy the 45MPG one in 6 years. Fuel prices holding due to massive oil finds could also be a large part of this decision.

 

[humveedriver]

I think I left out the biggest point , the last time used aircraft where purchased, and orders for new jets slid, SWA bought an airline. I think that has more to do with sliding purchase dates than MAX delivery schedules.

The drop in used jet pricing is not as precipitous as is been made out to be.

It's like saying I'm not going to buy the new car now which gets me 40MPG, because in six years I could get one which gets 45MPG. So I'm going to spend almost as much on a used one which still only gets 40MPG, and pay for the higher maintenance costs, transitions costs, and still buy the 45MPG one in 6 years. Fuel prices holding due to massive oil finds could also be a large part of this decision.

I'm not expecting much until Amadeus is up and running (crashes at least once, because the new res systems always do in the first year) and SWA is able to take the lead on the int'l ops.

 

[Ty Webb]

737's remind me of the Checker Taxicabs. Except they only made Checker cabs for 26 years . . . The 737 is going on 45 years, now.

 

[PCL_128]

Yet, not one of your pilots will suffer one cent of lost income through their career here when it comes to the end game money in the bank. Most will make out handsomely. Starting 2015.

That's impossible to know. We have no way of predicting what the contracts of both carriers would have resembled for the duration of everyone's careers. The only thing we know is seniority progression based upon retirements and firm aircraft orders.

 

[K-Mart]

That is correct no way to predict contracts in the future
for either carrier. Likewise no way to predict future of either
carrier staying in business. Firm aircraft orders are a joke too.

 

[humveedriver]

Firm aircraft orders are a joke too.

True. That just means the manafacturer agreed on price to sell the aircraft. Doesn't imply the carrier can't get out of buying them.

 

[DUBLINFLYER]

I did not see anyone mention the fact - why is Westjet selling perfectly good planes? Is there market strong enough to buy 800 or 900 models to replace their 700's
Or could SWA be buying the planes and the company ?

 

[Ty Webb]

The market for -700's is supposedly very weak right now, most airlines that have -800 or -900 options are going for the larger airframes, so the price of -700's is dropping to the point where they are attractive to certain operators. . . . or so my Magic 8-ball said.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

And by "educated guesses," I assume you really mean, "the most pessimistic possible outcome I can describe, even if it means discounting precedent, calling the entire Southwest management team liars, and ignoring what's actually happening around me," then I suppose you may be right.

Bubba

They have said a "relatively flat fleet" and flat capacity. The two don't coexist when you are replacing smaller airframes with larger ones. Jan 1 2015 is only 18 months away and they know what the fleet will look like then and it's out there in black and white on a page NOT STAMPED SWA INTERNAL ONLY if you care to find it. The plan at present has them retaining all the classics they have invested capital in beyond 2015. The "relatively flat fleet in 2015 includes 717s that will have to be parked unless there is some change from present agreements. Now they might go and purchase additional airframes but if they do there will be an ASM increase which is also counter to what they have said. Without additional airframes we will be GROSSLY overstaffed for a LONG period of time.

 

[waveflyer]

GBJ-

So, ok- lets say I agree.

What are you going to do?

How does obsessing like you are, change your situation.

Get your zombie hollow points ready- but once you've prepped, why do you continue to yell "the zombies are coming" every day that zombies haven't come?

You're an airline pilot- pay cash for your sports car, save your money, and don't over-extend yourself- having done that, how does reading your black tea leaves help you?

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Knowledge is power. Knowing you are going to displaced or furloughed now gives you 18 months to get your house in order and prepare. I don't believe in zombies but furloughs in the airline industry, especially after an acquisition, are a well documented historical fact. Also knowing the plan helps in negotiations. I have talked to several in SWAPA and I hope that their conversations with me were posturing. I would be deeply disturbed if they had their had that far in the sand. It saddens me but it just is what it is.

 

[waveflyer]

You're saying your house isn't in order?