AirTran MEC Chair message.

[maxblast72]

Yes. I believe it will be around until the last 717 leaves property for Delta and the last 737 transitions to Southwest which, according to press release and memos to us from management, means almost the end of 2015. What part of "36 717's to Delta in 2015 at 3 per month" do you not believe?

I don't think the last 717 flight will occur in December 2015. I believe once the 2015 summer travel season is over and the aircraft utilization drops for fall (normally mid-August), the last 15-20 B717s get parked for Delta to come get them as able.

Have to disagree with you there. Our international flying has higher yields than almost anything domestic we operate. You're going to take marginal domestic feed and kill it as the 717's transition to Delta and leave yourself with increasingly only-737 routes, including the International.

AirTran is going to continue to be profitable right up to the last year when the infrastructure to support the AirTran operation (Dispatchers, etc) becomes more than the revenue stream produced by the last 36 717's to leave and the last 30+ 737's to cross over.

I believe SWA will have international capabilities by early to mid 2014 and will have all 52 AirTran B737-700s converted to SWA livery by the end of 2014. SWA brand will pull more revenue internationally (especially for flights originating in the western part of the US). I really doubt there will be any AirTran international in 2015.

Everyone is making less money than they were this time last year, working less efficient trips, more days away from home, less commutable, and now they gutted a major part of the SIA that you helped negotiate, which included your CA seat. You're telling me that's OK with you?

There are still guys pulling 90-100 hrs credit per month (just watch the reserve availability grid). I imagine most of the pilots that are getting that much are pretty active with FLICA alerts. Not sure whether B717 or B737 or which bases are doing better with respect to getting hours.

I was in the room last July for the SWAPA/ATN Gary Kelly meeting. I heard Gary and Mike Van de Ven state that the B717 economics with $3/gallon Jet A and SWA labor rates were not good. From that point on, I knew SWA would get rid of the 2nd fleet type if they could. I wasn't sure if they would find someone to take that much lift off their hands, but I wasn't too shocked when I read the Delta MEC Chair's letter explaining how the B717 could be used to replace 50 seaters. Neither the B717 or B737-300 is ideal, but the economics of a 2nd fleet type and 20 less seats are too much to overcome.

I was hoping something with Boeing Capital or Rolls-Royce would tank the deal (as I could have made an additional $200K in 2015, 2016, and 2017). However, the SWA pay and non-aircraft specific CA retention slots were lost on August 18th. SIA #2 was ratified on Nov 7th.

The Southwest-AirTran ramp/operations agents arbitration award that was just issued on June 4th by 3 NMB arbitrators is just more proof that a straight DOH list was not a likely outcome had we gone to arbitration. It is time to move on and help Gary achieve his 15% ROIC profitability target. That is the only thing that will benefit both sides going forward.

 

[waveflyer]

Delta and i believe their svp of operations has stated emphatically that no pilots will come to delta with the 717s, something like "let me assure you...". I would guess Richard Anderson would stop it from happening as Gary would.

Has it been communicated how many AT pilots would LIKE the choice?

 

[Lear70]

I don't think the last 717 flight will occur in December 2015. I believe once the 2015 summer travel season is over and the aircraft utilization drops for fall (normally mid-August), the last 15-20 B717s get parked for Delta to come get them as able.

Yes, but that's my point. You asked if I really believed the planes would still be around in 2015 and I said yes, and that's why. As far as dates, I don't see a big difference between September and December. 90 days, either way, still has a lot of flying at AirTran until almost the end of 2015.

I believe SWA will have international capabilities by early to mid 2014 and will have all 52 AirTran B737-700s converted to SWA livery by the end of 2014. SWA brand will pull more revenue internationally (especially for flights originating in the western part of the US). I really doubt there will be any AirTran international in 2015.

While I certainly don't disagree with you that the SWA brand on international flying has MUCH more revenue and overall capacity expansion possibilities than a stand-alone AirTran (I see this as the ONLY avenue of expansion for Southwest for the next 10 years), I disagree with you on the conversion timeline.

You saw the chart, 45 days to convert an AirTran aircraft to SWA colors. Let's say, optimistically, with 3 conversion facilities running at full capacity and 2nd quarter 2014 starting to bring 52 aircraft over. 9 months with an aircraft pumped out every 45 days is 6 aircraft per line, 18 total aircraft by the end of 2014.

Another 24 aircraft in 2015 takes us up to 42 total, STILL leaving 10 aircraft still to be converted. They'd have to DOUBLE the number of lines, if not triple, to get them all done, not to mention if they miss that start date and international isn't up and running until end of 2nd or 3rd quarter, it will extend even further.

We'll see, but Frank already owes me a C-note on the 717 bet and I'd make a bet with you on this one, but you already owe me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue, so until you pay up on the first bet, I'm not making any more...

There are still guys pulling 90-100 hrs credit per month (just watch the reserve availability grid). I imagine most of the pilots that are getting that much are pretty active with FLICA alerts. Not sure whether B717 or B737 or which bases are doing better with respect to getting hours.

It's the 717 in ATL that still has that capability and those guys (a buddy of mine lives here in BNA and we chat pretty regularly) are working 18-19 days a month to do it. Most of us aren't anywhere near that and if you look at the LVI's, they're down by at least 10-12% system-wide, especially on the 737.

I was in the room last July for the SWAPA/ATN Gary Kelly meeting. I heard Gary and Mike Van de Ven state that the B717 economics with $3/gallon Jet A and SWA labor rates were not good. From that point on, I knew SWA would get rid of the 2nd fleet type if they could. I wasn't sure if they would find someone to take that much lift off their hands, but I wasn't too shocked when I read the Delta MEC Chair's letter explaining how the B717 could be used to replace 50 seaters. Neither the B717 or B737-300 is ideal, but the economics of a 2nd fleet type and 20 less seats are too much to overcome.

You were also in the room in September when Russ McCrady with Joe Harris stood right there when we asked what happened if the 717's went away and so would our CA and ATL fence protections, not to mention 2nd 717 base. Their response: the money in the first deal with the price of fuel made them want to dump the planes ASAP. Not giving us the money in the 2nd deal made sure the 717 wasn't in jeopardy.

I was hoping something with Boeing Capital or Rolls-Royce would tank the deal (as I could have made an additional $200K in 2015, 2016, and 2017). However, the SWA pay and non-aircraft specific CA retention slots were lost on August 18th. SIA #2 was ratified on Nov 7th.

You know as well as I do that the non-aircraft-specific CA retention slots wouldn't have survived this scenario, either. And I quote, "In the event of an overall reduction in the NUMBER of Captain seats, pilots will bid their system seniority..." Combined with SL10, restricting any AirTran Captain from holding 737 CA until 1/1/15, and poof... non-aircraft-specific CA retention slots gone.

No argument that we'd rather have had the first SIA now that we know the outcome of everything, but that doesn't make it a "good" SIA, just better than what we got. Like I've said before, it would have been awfully nice if Gary Kelly had written the letter he wrote BEFORE the vote, rather than after, telling us that they would specifically start looking into non-integration possibilities if we didn't ratify the first one. It undoubtedly would have passed if he'd have been as open with the pilot group before the vote as he was just 48 hours after it, and we all know it.

The Southwest-AirTran ramp/operations agents arbitration award that was just issued on June 4th by 3 NMB arbitrators is just more proof that a straight DOH list was not a likely outcome had we gone to arbitration.

It's not proof of anything, except that the pay was a powerful argument. We set the bar for a 2.5-3 year DOH loss being "fair" and probably hosed everyone else in the process, not to mention that no other work group relies on seniority to "upgrade" into a 50-60% pay raise. Seniority is much more critical for our work group than any other airline employee. As such, you can't use a labor group's results that were BASED on our agreement to retroactively "predict" our outcome in arbitration. It's a paradoxical argument, not to mention non-similar in sensitivity to overall seniority placement in their overall income expectancy.

It is time to move on and help Gary achieve his 15% ROIC profitability target. That is the only thing that will benefit both sides going forward.

Can't argue there. We can argue the above until we're blue in the face, but it's time to move forward. How enthusiastically our pilots do so will be highly influenced by what, if anything, Gary Kelly offers our pilots as compensation for gutting the main portion of the SIA. In truth, the only thing that's left of value is the fact that we're all on the SWA seniority list, the no-furlough clause, and the 1/1/15 snap-up to Southwest's CBA. The rest of it is pretty much gone.

 

[Lear70]

Has it been communicated how many AT pilots would LIKE the choice?

Yes.

It's my understanding that not only the MEC but also our Chief Pilots' office has communicated both to Bob Jordan and Gary Kelly that, in all likelihood, the bid to go to Delta would go senior.

 

[redflyer65]

No argument that we'd rather have had the first SIA now that we know the outcome of everything, but that doesn't make it a "good" SIA, just better than what we got. Like I've said before, it would have been awfully nice if Gary Kelly had written the letter he wrote BEFORE the vote, rather than after, telling us that they would specifically start looking into non-integration possibilities if we didn't ratify the first one..

Lear,

We had Southwest people on here coming out of the woodwork stating that you guys needed to tread carefully when dealing with GK and the GO, that they play hardball when it comes to contracts and getting the best deal (from their viewpoint). Nobody, I mean no one believed it. They all thought it was just sabre rattling by SW employees. In the end, we knew what we were talking about. Your MEC should have NEVER voted the way they did.....never! They should have let the pilots decided. That was a huge error. When Gary's letter came out, it was crickets. I wasn't surprised at all. I wish it hadn't gone down like that, but those on this side of the fence knew this was going to get ugly after the MEC vote. And SWAPA had nothing to do with that, but nobody was surprised. I honestly wish people would have believed what we were saying, we were being completely truthful. It's sad the way it turned out.

Why would Gary, a business man, show his hand with any move into the future. Would it have made a difference if he said this is the 'last deal'? I don't think so. The MEC would have just pushed back saying he's trying to twist arms to get a deal, so I propose it wouldn't have mattered. The course was set by the MEC. Period.

 

[malibuVride]

Oh, I don't think Gary would be the problem. Gary's a smart guy, so I'm sure he'd jump at the opportunity to let a bunch of guys leave who would rather be somewhere else. The real problem would be with Delta and DALPA.

I would like to think there is a way to allow those in favor to make the transition to DL. I'm certainly no expert on the frag language but if it has any teeth, then I think Gary Kelly would be bound to send us with the planes. Or atleast make a legitimate attempt. One can only dream at this point I guess.

And I agree with Lear, that bid would go fiarly senior. Indeed everyone would win that way. The presence of ATN pilots at DL wouldn't 'harm' them, yet the SLI would actually be fair. Those who choose to stay at SWA would be happy with their choice, hence happier SWA pilots. The RSW pilots would be happier as well. I would think Gary K would push pretty hard to make this happen!

 

[PCL_128]

I would think Gary K would push pretty hard to make this happen!

Gary might be concerned at how it would look for his company if the bid went ultra-senior and almost every AirTran pilot was bidding for Delta instead of the supposedly utopian Southwest. Honestly, I'm halfway up the FO list, and I doubt I could hold a Delta slot if they took even 1,000 pilots.

 

[texman]

PCL, would 36 of the 717's after 2015 trigger the frag clause? Would that be 30% of AT flying or 100%?

 

[Lear70]

Lear,

We had Southwest people on here coming out of the woodwork stating that you guys needed to tread carefully when dealing with GK and the GO, that they play hardball when it comes to contracts and getting the best deal (from their viewpoint). Nobody, I mean no one believed it. They all thought it was just sabre rattling by SW employees. In the end, we knew what we were talking about. Your MEC should have NEVER voted the way they did.....never! They should have let the pilots decided. That was a huge error. When Gary's letter came out, it was crickets. I wasn't surprised at all. I wish it hadn't gone down like that, but those on this side of the fence knew this was going to get ugly after the MEC vote. And SWAPA had nothing to do with that, but nobody was surprised. I honestly wish people would have believed what we were saying, we were being completely truthful. It's sad the way it turned out.

You're absolutely right... We thought it was sabre rattling and you were right in what happened afterwards.

Why would Gary, a business man, show his hand with any move into the future.

That doesn't make any sense, unless you are saying he WANTED us to turn down the first offer so he could take the money off the table without looking like the bad guy. If he was being honest there was no reason not to tell us his plans IN ADVANCE if we refused the SIA. You only hide your cards if you have a surprise planned for your opponent.

Would it have made a difference if he said this is the 'last deal'? I don't think so. The MEC would have just pushed back saying he's trying to twist arms to get a deal, so I propose it wouldn't have mattered. The course was set by the MEC. Period.

I will always feel that GK could have told us the non-integration plan 48 hours before he threatened it. The truth is he DID twist arms to get the 2nd deal. That much is fact. And yes, I know what the sentiment was both before the SIA vote and after the threat letter 48 hours later. It would have made a difference.

 

[PCL_128]

PCL, would 36 of the 717's after 2015 trigger the frag clause? Would that be 30% of AT flying or 100%?

I would argue that it does. I would say that the clause is actually triggered in 2014, the first full year of transfers. Of course, I'm sure some very smart attorneys at Delta or Southwest could find some pretty good arguments that it doesn't. Such is the nature of contract language.