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ACA to go it alone!

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RJPilott

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51336-2003Jul26.html


By Keith L. Alexander and Sara Kehaulani Goo
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, July 28, 2003; Page E01


Atlantic Coast Airlines plans to sever its 14-year bond with United Airlines and become a low-fare airline that could increase competition for price-conscious travelers in the Washington region.

The plan would mean refashioning a regional carrier dependent on United for most of its passengers and revenue into an independent airline during one of the travel industry's worst slumps. Atlantic Coast officials concede that the plan is risky and costly, but that it provides the best hope for the company's long-term growth.

Under the plan, Atlantic Coast would no longer operate regional United Express flights. It would develop its own brand and market itself as a competitor to such airlines as Southwest, Air Tran and JetBlue. Its hub would be at Dulles International Airport, where Atlantic and most of its 4,800 employees are based. Atlantic Coast is the largest regional jet operation at Dulles and dominates the airport's A terminal, which was built for the carrier in 1999.

The plan is contingent on United rejecting its current contract with Atlantic. As recently as Thursday, United chief executive Glenn F. Tilton said negotiations on a new contract were continuing.

With the venture to be announced today, Atlantic would effectively end those negotiations. United and Atlantic have been trying to renegotiate the contract since United filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in December.

United officials, who did not learn of the Atlantic's plans until last night, declined to comment.

The relationship with United has been highly beneficial to Atlantic. The fees United pays to Atlantic are the primary reason Atlantic remained profitable after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that crippled most of the airline industry.

Kerry B. Skeen, Atlantic Coast chairman and chief executive, said Atlantic decided that the terms United has been proposing for a new contract aren't acceptable. Under bankruptcy court rules, United can either accept Atlantic's existing contract or get out of it with a judge's approval.

As a stand-alone airline, Atlantic would compete with not only United, which says it plans a low-fare airline of its own, but also JetBlue and Air Tran, both of which also fly out of Dulles.

The airline already has baggage handlers and because the majority of its bookings will be done via its Web site, the airline is expected to hire only a few reservation agents. That should help the carrier keep its costs down.

Skeen cited the marketing challenge that Atlantic faces. Outside of the Washington area, travelers know the airline primarily as United Express. Now, Skeen is contemplating whether the airline may need a catchier brand name other than Atlantic Coast. Creating a new identity means the airline would have to spend millions of dollars to promote itself and its fares. "Our advertising budget will be bigger than most national carriers' budgets," Skeen said.

Skeen said Atlantic's plan has been considered for two years as an alternative to the United agreement. Most of Atlantic Coast's jets are small and fly to smaller cities, unlike Southwest's, Jet Blue's and Air Tran's. Atlantic plans to add big jets to its fleet in a few years. Skeen said the airline had only two choices; either accept United's lower offer or do something else.

By using smaller planes, Skeen said, Atlantic Coast could be profitable in such markets as Rochester, N.Y., Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, Ga., where bigger airlines have a hard time making money with larger jets. "This is a niche that has not been done. This is a niche that is not being exploited," Skeen said.

Skeen said Atlantic Coast plans to offer one-way, walk-up fares of about $150 to destinations for which other airlines charge more than $400.

United accounts for 85 percent of Atlantic Coast's revenue and was the founding partner when Atlantic was formed in 1989. United pays Atlantic Coast to run United Express flights mostly out of Dulles and Chicago's O'Hare International Airport.

Under a contract negotiated in 2000, United pays Atlantic Coast a fixed fee for each departure, no matter how many passengers are aboard or what they paid. United wants to reduce the fee to a level it said is more in keeping with the low-cost future of the industry. Atlantic, Skeen said, declined to accept United's terms.

Despite its failure to reach an agreement with Atlantic Coast, United recently agreed to long-term, lower-cost contracts with other regional carriers, including Trans States Airlines, Mesa Air Group, Sky West and Air Wisconsin.

Even if United agreed to keep the contract, "United is not risk-free" for Atlantic, Skeen said. He cited United's continuing employee-relations problems and the long-term risks to United business whether it emerges from bankruptcy or not.

Skeen said that operating as a low-cost carrier was "much more attractive for our shareholders and employees."

Darryl Jenkins, head of George Washington University's Aviation Institute, said that if Atlantic Coast succeeded, its fare structure could have ripple effects along the East Coast, where Skeen said Atlantic would initially fly.

"We're going to see a big change in the competitive nature in the airline industry on the East Coast," Jenkins said. "It will be interesting to see if other regionals are as brash as this one. . . . We've been going through this evolution of the business, and this is going to force yet more changes."

Leo Schefer, president of the Washington Airports Task Force, said airlines besides United would be directly affected by Atlantic Coast's venture. US Airways, which emerged from Chapter 11 this year as a slimmer airline focused on the East Coast market, already competes with the flights that Atlantic Coast operates as United Express.

An independent Atlantic Coast would probably force lower fares and competition with US Airways, particularly in mid-size markets.

"I see nothing but a win-win out of this, particularly for the consumer," Schefer said.

Skeen said the venture would make Dulles a more attractive airport for passengers looking for low fares. Baltimore-Washington International Airport overtook Dulles as the busiest airport in the region largely because of the popularity of BWI's dominant airline, Southwest.

Southwest, the biggest airline to remain profitable after the Sept. 11, 2001, plans to add flights at BWI.

"Dulles lost a lot of traffic to BWI. The region is growing, but you have people going to BWI for fares and pricing," Skeen said. "We're going to make people use Dulles."

Atlantic Coast said it plans to continue operating as a regional operator for Delta Air Lines. Delta provides about 15 percent of Atlantic Coast's revenue.

Keeping costs low is crucial to Atlantic's plan.

Atlantic Coast's costs were about 18 cents per available seat mile in the first quarter of this year. Skeen said that should drop to about 15 or 16 cents per available seat mile.

To keep costs down, the airline plans to sell tickets primarily through its Web site. That would also mean the airline won't have a need to hire hundreds of reservation agents. And the airline already has its own customer service agents and baggage handlers at many of the airports it service.

The new strategy will also need the cooperation of the airline's employees, especially its three unionized groups, the flight attendants, pilots and mechanics. Skeen said the airline would not have to lower its employees' pay, nor would it have to lay off hundreds of workers in an effort to reduce costs.

Instead, Skeen said, the airline would operate more flights, which he said would make better use of the company's planes and reduce costs. Southwest follows a similar strategy. "This will not be on the backs of employees," Skeen said.
 
Big Mistake, aca will soon learn the difficulties of the aviation industry.
They now do not have a heavyweight in their corner.
 
Buh-bye

goflyme said:
Big Mistake, aca will soon learn the difficulties of the aviation industry.
They now do not have a heavyweight in their corner.

Heavyweight or more like "deadweight"? Because thats about what United is these days.
 
United went too far!

Give em hell boys! I am sick too death of watching United use and abuse it feeders. United's pilots and managers screw themselves over with poor decision making and then want to slash prices with what is already the most underpaid positions in the industry (the regionals)! I would love to see United get burned big time on all the routes ACA will fly! If only the other regionals had said enough is enough (like ACA) United would have had to honor their current contracts because replacing all regional flying would have been too much for Mesa to accomplish overnight.

If I read this correct, ACA pilots will now no longer be taking pay cuts either since the proposed cuts were based soley on a renewed contract with United. I would call this (directly or indirectly) a victory for Regionals and Pilots in general. Someone needed to take a stand. I hope it works out for ACA. Good luck to you all!
 
I do not know if we will make it as a LCC, but doing it out of Dulles makes me so **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** happy. ACA gets to stick it to United on their home turf. United has burned it bridges with ACA and its' employees.
 
Since the RJ is a very, very high CASM product, I wonder what they intend to replace it with and how many furloughs the restructuring will generate?

Regardless I think it's BS and they're just trying to put pressure on United.

UAL knows there is no way to very quickly replace the amount of feed that ACA provides (unless of course they repaint the US Airways fleet "United Express")

(tongue-in-cheek)
 
Won't this also mean an end to the DAL code-share (if ACA operates aircraft with greater than 50 seats)?
 
Good Luck!!!

I wish ACA and their employees good luck. As a former blueridger myself I know alot of people over there and I hope the best for everyone. Like Skeen said, I think it will be a very risky proposition. One thing ACA will need to do is greatly improve their on-time/completion factor. When I was there (I left in the summer of 2002) the performance of ACA was horrible and it looks like from the DOT stats as of late is hasn't improved too much. Also they will need to definetly add seats (as in a bigger aircraft) to lower their ASMs. You cannot compete with the likes of JetBlue (6.5 cents per ASM), AirTran (8.0 cents per ASM and getting lower with their new 737s coming on line next year), and SWA (?, but I am sure it is between Jetblue and AirTran). Flying around with an ASM of 15-18 cents per ASM will kill them eventually if they do not upgrade. That is the reason no one else has really tried a CRJ type low fare airline. Well I guess Midway kind of tried it, but look what happended to them. Oh yeah and Great Plains is also trying it but from what I understand they have one foot in the grave. Time will tell. Good Luck!
 
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Can someone explain how ACA can make a go of it if their CASM is 15-18 cents?

Atlantic Coast's costs were about 18 cents per available seat mile in the first quarter of this year. Skeen said that should drop to about 15 or 16 cents per available seat mile.

That seemed sort of high so I did a search and found an article putting most majors way under that.
http://www.courier-journal.com/business/news2003/03/04/biz-3-fare04-5705.html
Airlines want to increase RASM and decrease CASM. The majors envy the low-cost carriers' CASMs. ATA, for example, has a CASM of 6.83 cents, while United is at an industry high of 11.27 cents.
A low CASM cannot be explained simply by low wages. Southwest pays middle- to upper-end salaries to its pilots, flight attendants and mechanics. Yet its CASM is 7.41 cents, the lowest of the top eight carriers in the country

I'm just a pilot not a financial guru and I hope it all works out, but I'm just not sure that 15 beats 7.41 or even 11.27 when it comes to being able to compete.

Thoughts?
 
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaah Beeeeeoooooooooooootch!!!!

Just got the call from my buddies at ORD......
UAL can kiss my a$$!!!! Even if we fail, at least we went out standing on our own two feet instead of being someone's beootch. Can't wait to see how the stock will do today. I've been waiting for this announcement for a long time.

Cry fury!!! And unleash the dogs of ACA!!!!!
 
They may have a higher CASM, but they don't have to fill as many seats to break even. That's what Great Plains is doing. If those guys could get four more RJs they'd be making a profit. If CASM was all that mattered we wouldn't see any RJs around, but alas, we do. More and more every day.
 
I hope you shorted ACA, because if you're expecting ACA stock to skyrocket after this announcement, you'll be disappointed.

Good luck to all at ACA. I quit two weeks ago, so I'll be watching this one from the sidelines.
 
The Washington post article mentioned a cost of 14 CASM(which may be a high estimate). For 2002 we had an average CASM of 15.5 with aircraft utilization of 9 or so hours 30 turboprops and 33 FRJs. The reason our CASM is high is because of UAL. The have slowly strangled us with aircraft utilization so that we show a high CASM.

On our own we could reach a utilization of 11 to 12 hours a day for a CRJ, get rid of J41s, add CRJ900s, and add a aircraft capable of handling higher loads and coast to coast ops, all of which lower CASM.

The range of a 717 is less than a CRJ. The model would be something like Airtran/Southwest. The CRJ seat is not that comfortable, but neither is a LUV seat.

Stage lengths of up to 1000nm. This would reach MIA, DFW, MCI, and eastern Canada.

Lets assume an average trip length of 1000nm.

1000nm x 50 seats x 0.14 is $7000.00 per trip

$7000.00/$150.00 is 47 seats to break even at 14 cents CASM

I think the 14 cent CASM is high. With an all CRJ fleet I believe 12 cents is more accurate, assuming the FRJ Delta connection ops are self contained. With larger aircraft and CRJ 900s we could lower it in a few years to the 8 to 10 cent range.

Ask yourself, would you pay $300.00 roundtrip to go from Shreveport, LA to Portland, ME or Jacksonville, FL to Milwaukee, WI?

ACAI would offer Southwest service and prices to markets not traditionally served by LCCs. This market has not been exploited yet. JBLU is attempting to, but will not get the EMBs on property till the end of 2005.
 
There sure are a lot of people on this thread going "hahahaha, take THAT UAL!" and/or "UAL has been screwing ACA long enough" etc., etc., etc.

Am I missing something? HOW has United been keeping ACA down? Didn't I just read in that news report what I'd already known/suspected, that the fixed-fee flying that ACA has been doing is what kept them profitable post-9/11?

Why all the animosity towards UAL? Is it just because they wanted a lower-cost deal with ACA?
 
So when is ACA supose to be 'on there own'? Do they have a specified date that they will be dropping United?
To me this sounds like another midway. An RJ fleet with a few 737's.
 

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