61 of 73 new markets lose money for SWA

[lowecur]

Lowercur,

Yes, I think that at least one legacy carrier and one or more startup/lccs will cease existence in the next five years. It is pretty much a given. Most of the experts have alluded to it already. I don't remember saying anything about that? They really haven't changed their money losing ways, just dumped debt. Unfortunately, their debt and their pension plans was their reserve fuel. They have no reserve fuel when the next inevitable war breaks out. Once one biggie goes down, it will balance out the marketplace to the betterment of everyone else so at this point it is just a waiting game to see who falls. It could be anyone. As they say in healthcare, it isn't always the sickest patient who dies first. It could be debtor driven, it could be management driven, it could even be labor driven. Putnum pulled the plug on Braniff on a day when he had the stomach flu and didn't feel well. It just needs a catalyst which could be a war, accident, strike, failed merger, spike in interest rates, or even a combination. The only certainty is that it will happen.[/quote]Don't see any failures of existing legacy's or entrenched LCC's. I do see further consolidation as things get dicey around 2010. If that scenerio plays out, SWA will again be disappointed.

imp:​

 

[bearcat]

Hey moderators can you rename this thread to "I bet my dad can beat up your dad!"?
Thanks

 

[Hose A. Jiminez]

That's because it's selling rich.....$8 bucks is fair value.

You must have skipped the section on fair market valuation as well all of your accounting classes at Wharton. Pretty sure youre just making sh1t up.

Morningstar Rating 3Star
Business Risk Average
Fair Value Estimate $16.00
Economic Moat Narrow
Consider Buying $12.30
Consider Selling $20.00
Stewardship Grade A

I agree the stock has sucked for 5+ years. Thats bad particularly with the buy back. But thought Id help you out since your estimate was off by %100.

 

[The Victors]

Amen brother! You read this post, and would think that everyone would be thrilled if SWA went under. Boy, that would be one final kick in the Jimmy in an industry where they hand those out(jimmy kicks) like candy. Wouldn't it benefit everyone if a company that pays people well, treats them even better succeeds? Wouldn't that put pressure on the other fart knockers to start paying well and treating people well? I guess you want the bastion of good pay/good treatment to go away so that there is no hope? Good thinkin'...[/quote

Exactly. It's good for OUR industry. An example for people like Dollar General lee who dont understand: I don't work for Airtran. I work for one of their competitors. Am I wishing for there demise? Am I posting negative stuff about them? No. I hoping that they flush that crap TA and push harder for the 30% raise that they deserve. WHY? Because it's good for OUR indusrty.
But back to the thread, Swa has been profitable for years operationally plus through other means. Who cares where the money comes from? It's a profit people.

 

[The Victors]

I meant "their demise". never beem much of a spellleeer

 

[Mamma]

In regards to Bav Chef's joke, I cannot for the life of me figure out your point. I swear pilots have no ability to grasp a simple joke whatsoever...along with the rest of America.

What's your point? In early 2001, guys were leaving SWA for United. All that tells me is that pilots go for the flavor of the month. I swear pilot's have no long term memory whatsoever.....along with the rest of America.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

You must have skipped the section on fair market valuation as well all of your accounting classes at Wharton. Pretty sure youre just making sh1t up.

Morningstar Rating 3Star
Business Risk Average
Fair Value Estimate $16.00
Economic Moat Narrow
Consider Buying $12.30
Consider Selling $20.00
Stewardship Grade A

I agree the stock has sucked for 5+ years. Thats bad particularly with the buy back. But thought Id help you out since your estimate was off by %100.

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

 

[SNOWBUM]

every new route for any airline will loose money for the first 2-5 years. it is closer to 5 if both cities are new, it is closer to 2 if they already flew to those cities.those prudential analyst, like any other analyst, are just looking at short term stock performance, not long term airline survibality . subsidizing the growth in the ears and midwest with texas and west coast revenue is a great idea, and in 4 years it will pay off big time. wait till they start putting tv's and assigned seating on longer routes and they start doing transcons.

 

[The Victors]

also in the last 5 years alot of the competition has been in bankruptcy and not paying their bills and slashing employees numbers and costs.

 

[momalley81]

However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

Which doesn't mean squat since you have no clue what you are talking about.

Why do you continue to post about things which you are so clueless about? It really boggles the mind.

 

[lowecur]

Lowcur may be lost at times,

Thanks for the endorsement there kernel. I think you pulled 7G's too many times without the G suit. nik nik.

imp:​

 

[Hose A. Jiminez]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

Morningstar ratings look backwards.

So my assesment stands. Youre just making sh1t up.

 

[thruthemurk]

Again you so called aviators are total idiots. ..... Maybe we'll all get what we're wishing for; Swa will lose money and their employees will have to take a pay cut down to our level. Yes, that's the ticket. Lets bring everyone down to our level.

That was basically the game of the SW pilots for 30 years - and guess what - it finally happened!! Let's try to operate with more than just a post 9/11 memory.

In a perfect world no one would work for less than their counterparts and pilot wages would not be the competitive tool they are now. The die has been cast for decades.

 

[igneousy2]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

WTF are you talking about.

The fair market value of any stock is what you can get the stock for on the open market. This is the definition. So, SWA (LUV) fair-market-value is $14.26 as of yesterdays close. There are many ways to "value" a stock to decide how much you should pay, but since you brought up earnings...

Where are you getting these earnings estimates? That isn't even close to the numbers that are publically available. The mean analyst estimates right now for SWA is .68/share this year and .84 per share next year (2008). With a float of 781 Million Shares that would put the mean earnings estimate at 531 million this year and 656 million in 2008.

If you go back to 2004 and total up all of SWA "misses" of mean estimates, they only missed by .07 cents in 2+ years which equates to 54.6 million at the current float. So that would be a miss of 10% or less in the past 2 years...not even close to the 50% in the past year you are talking about. Never mind the quarters that they beat the street estimates.


Later

 

[igneousy2]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

Additionally...

SWA is currently trading at a 22 multiple, so if in fact SWA does hit 800-900 million in earnings that you are talking about, that would yield a price of $22-$25, and $11-12.50 if they miss by 50%. How are you getting $8?

Later

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

Well, UAL was if you were the proud owner of a vagina. Before 9/11 if you weren't a minority you didn't have a great shot at UAL. Back then they were turning away astronauts for god's sake...

Ok???? What's your point? UAL was the flavor of the month for a while before 9/11 too. quote]

 

[Poahi]

Southwest was brilliant at fuel hedging. That gave them a huge advantage over the majors. I think they are going to do the same thing as Walmart now - slow growth and focus on being profitable.

 

[ivauir]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

LOL .... this is actally funnier than the guy who failed at Vanguard telling SWA how to run an airline ....

Please post more humor YPF ... maybe you should try standup!

 

[YourPilotFriend]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LUV&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=CAL,AMR,LCC,NWA

Thats all ya need to know right there for ya.

 

[momalley81]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LUV&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=CAL,AMR,LCC,NWA

Thats all ya need to know right there for ya.

The more you post the more you show that you have NO idea what you are talking about when it comes to the market.

NWA just came out of BK. Don't you think there is going the be quite a bit of speculation when it comes to their stock being reissued?

YBF, honestly quit posting about stuff you know nothing about.