61 of 73 new markets lose money for SWA

[Mamma]

In regards to Bav Chef's joke, I cannot for the life of me figure out your point. I swear pilots have no ability to grasp a simple joke whatsoever...along with the rest of America.

What's your point? In early 2001, guys were leaving SWA for United. All that tells me is that pilots go for the flavor of the month. I swear pilot's have no long term memory whatsoever.....along with the rest of America.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

You must have skipped the section on fair market valuation as well all of your accounting classes at Wharton. Pretty sure youre just making sh1t up.

Morningstar Rating 3Star
Business Risk Average
Fair Value Estimate $16.00
Economic Moat Narrow
Consider Buying $12.30
Consider Selling $20.00
Stewardship Grade A

I agree the stock has sucked for 5+ years. Thats bad particularly with the buy back. But thought Id help you out since your estimate was off by %100.

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

 

[SNOWBUM]

every new route for any airline will loose money for the first 2-5 years. it is closer to 5 if both cities are new, it is closer to 2 if they already flew to those cities.those prudential analyst, like any other analyst, are just looking at short term stock performance, not long term airline survibality . subsidizing the growth in the ears and midwest with texas and west coast revenue is a great idea, and in 4 years it will pay off big time. wait till they start putting tv's and assigned seating on longer routes and they start doing transcons.

 

[The Victors]

also in the last 5 years alot of the competition has been in bankruptcy and not paying their bills and slashing employees numbers and costs.

 

[momalley81]

However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

Which doesn't mean squat since you have no clue what you are talking about.

Why do you continue to post about things which you are so clueless about? It really boggles the mind.

 

[lowecur]

Lowcur may be lost at times,

Thanks for the endorsement there kernel. I think you pulled 7G's too many times without the G suit. nik nik.

imp:​

 

[Hose A. Jiminez]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

Morningstar ratings look backwards.

So my assesment stands. Youre just making sh1t up.

 

[thruthemurk]

Again you so called aviators are total idiots. ..... Maybe we'll all get what we're wishing for; Swa will lose money and their employees will have to take a pay cut down to our level. Yes, that's the ticket. Lets bring everyone down to our level.

That was basically the game of the SW pilots for 30 years - and guess what - it finally happened!! Let's try to operate with more than just a post 9/11 memory.

In a perfect world no one would work for less than their counterparts and pilot wages would not be the competitive tool they are now. The die has been cast for decades.

 

[igneousy2]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

WTF are you talking about.

The fair market value of any stock is what you can get the stock for on the open market. This is the definition. So, SWA (LUV) fair-market-value is $14.26 as of yesterdays close. There are many ways to "value" a stock to decide how much you should pay, but since you brought up earnings...

Where are you getting these earnings estimates? That isn't even close to the numbers that are publically available. The mean analyst estimates right now for SWA is .68/share this year and .84 per share next year (2008). With a float of 781 Million Shares that would put the mean earnings estimate at 531 million this year and 656 million in 2008.

If you go back to 2004 and total up all of SWA "misses" of mean estimates, they only missed by .07 cents in 2+ years which equates to 54.6 million at the current float. So that would be a miss of 10% or less in the past 2 years...not even close to the 50% in the past year you are talking about. Never mind the quarters that they beat the street estimates.


Later

 

[igneousy2]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

Additionally...

SWA is currently trading at a 22 multiple, so if in fact SWA does hit 800-900 million in earnings that you are talking about, that would yield a price of $22-$25, and $11-12.50 if they miss by 50%. How are you getting $8?

Later

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

Well, UAL was if you were the proud owner of a vagina. Before 9/11 if you weren't a minority you didn't have a great shot at UAL. Back then they were turning away astronauts for god's sake...

Ok???? What's your point? UAL was the flavor of the month for a while before 9/11 too. quote]

 

[Poahi]

Southwest was brilliant at fuel hedging. That gave them a huge advantage over the majors. I think they are going to do the same thing as Walmart now - slow growth and focus on being profitable.

 

[ivauir]

That's a fair value estimate, it is based off projected earnings for this year. To give a fair market value estimate if earnings reached the projected $800-900 million would give a price of $16.00. However, the past three years SW has missed targets by 50%, giving my fair value estimate at $8.

LOL .... this is actally funnier than the guy who failed at Vanguard telling SWA how to run an airline ....

Please post more humor YPF ... maybe you should try standup!

 

[YourPilotFriend]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LUV&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=CAL,AMR,LCC,NWA

Thats all ya need to know right there for ya.

 

[momalley81]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LUV&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=CAL,AMR,LCC,NWA

Thats all ya need to know right there for ya.

The more you post the more you show that you have NO idea what you are talking about when it comes to the market.

NWA just came out of BK. Don't you think there is going the be quite a bit of speculation when it comes to their stock being reissued?

YBF, honestly quit posting about stuff you know nothing about.