50 seat Jets. Uncertain future?

[no1pilot2000]

What aircraft can replace a 50 seat RJ?

 

[Jetjockey]

Why do I keep picturing this spruce goose size 200 seat 8 engine turboprop???

 

[flyboyike]

What is uncertain about the 50 seat jet? It seems to me that it is certain they will be tossed to the desert in a few years. It isn't going to matter anyway- age 65 will create enough attrition to make this painless for the regional pilots that would have gotten hammered by their shrinking airline anyway.

Until they pass age 75, because "fair is fair and besides, it was going to happen anyway".

 

[no1pilot2000]

Ok.... someone design a new RJ.

 

[Freebrd]

Ok.... someone design a new RJ.

how bout a RT.....regional turboprop, aka as dash 8-400 and ATR?

 

[General Lee]

GL, taking your comments on face value (as if you're not just here to flame the RJ pilots), where's our leverage to take back all scope (even props!) AND to staple or flow all the DCI pilots? What makes you think we have the company over a barrel with oil pushing $100 again and consumer demand dropping, a D-South pilot group that has never stricken in the history of the airline, and an NMB that would never release one anyhow?

We will hold the line at 76, but we're not taking anything back. Quit fooling yourself. 50 seaters will be retired when their contracts expire, and the cities they fly to will be dropped altogether. Regional pilots will lose jobs, and in case you've noticed, many of them won't be hired here. It's starting to appear like DAL isn't interested in the ones who have been there 10+. They want the young, impressionable pilots who will stay for 40 years. Think there's no solution to the hiring boom other than taking all the regional pilots? Don't worry, the legacy carriers will very soon negotiate direct entry programs with the flight schools and bypass the "older disgruntled regional lifers" altogether.

Of course, you know all of this GL. Which is why you keep posting your flamebait here, and gloating about regional pilots losing their jobs. So sad. Especially since you don't even really work here and have nothing to brag about.

What's "OUR" leverage? (aren't you still at ASA? Sure you are) We won't be taking back ALL SCOPE. 50 seaters are dying on their own thanks to higher gas. That section would be wasted capital. 70 and 76 seaters aren't doing much better, but should survive. Our leverage there is to not allow any more, they can't just add more, there is a contractual limit that would have to be changed. We could and would say NO. The airline may want to go the AA route during their current negotiations with the APA, by offering "everything over 50 seats will be flown by mainline pilots (adding Eagle pilots to the bottom of the list). But, we don't own any RJs except the Comair ones going away in great numbers. I don't know if that could be done the same way as AA is offering.

What you are missing here is that there is a second wave of consolidation coming. That is the leverage. Airlines are doing better (Ed Bastain just stated so at an aviation conference) thanks to Consolidation. Delta does NOT want to be negotiating any contracts during upcoming consolidation, it might get in the way, especially since Dalpa still can turn down code shares, which is what initially happens in the buyout of another airline. I don't see Dalpa going after any CRJ 70s or 76 seaters, rather making sure nothing more is taken away, and continue to watch the 50 seaters go away when their expensive mx checks are up. As far as future hiring, many of the RJ pilots will be hired at DL, and every other major that has unbelievable retirement numbers coming. Passenger service within the US is not going down (do you think so????), and retirement numbers are there. AA has an equal amount of Captains and FO the same age. It will be like a cliff there, with unbelievable numbers eventually needing to get hired. USAir East is full of senior citizens. United and CAL never had the big early out numbers after 9-11, and UAL starts retiring 1 Captain every 18 hours next month for age 65. Get the picture yet? RJ pilots will have a great chance to get hired eventually, it just has to start in the next year or two. Delta will lose 7600 pilots within the next 15 years, as stated in an article recently. And, there won't be cabbotage or any of that krap happening either.

Look Box, I post articles and don't change them. If you need to keep your head in the sand, then do it. Your retorts are worthless anyway. Enjoy ASA.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Freebrd]

What a putz! Expect that ego clown OysYoYo next with the same old points. Jenny you're a broken record! Man post something new and updated for a change. Like how you'll cave and 100 seaters will be at some DCI carrier. But then again you're at AirTran right? Actually I don't even think you're anywhere but on your knees at an airport fence somewhere, looking in of course. PUTZ!

 

[General Lee]

What a putz! Expect that ego clown OysYoYo next with the same old points. Jenny you're a broken record! Man post something new and updated for a change. Like how you'll cave and 100 seaters will be at some DCI carrier. But then again you're at AirTran right? Actually I don't even think you're anywhere but on your knees at an airport fence somewhere, looking in of course. PUTZ!

So Freebee, what is your next move when the Vietnamese figure out the RJ isn't a good fit over there either? Maybe you can follow the plane down to Peru, until it fails there too. Then, off to the Falkland Islands. Have fun! HAHHAHAHAHAHA


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[flyboyike]

What's "OUR" leverage? (aren't you still at ASA? Sure you are) We won't be taking back ALL SCOPE. 50 seaters are dying on their own thanks to higher gas. That section would be wasted capital. 70 and 76 seaters aren't doing much better, but should survive. Our leverage there is to not allow any more, they can't just add more, there is a contractual limit that would have to be changed. We could and would say NO. The airline may want to go the AA route during their current negotiations with the APA, by offering "everything over 50 seats will be flown by mainline pilots (adding Eagle pilots to the bottom of the list). But, we don't own any RJs except the Comair ones going away in great numbers. I don't know if that could be done the same way as AA is offering.

What you are missing here is that there is a second wave of consolidation coming. That is the leverage. Airlines are doing better (Ed Bastain just stated so at an aviation conference) thanks to Consolidation. Delta does NOT want to be negotiating any contracts during upcoming consolidation, it might get in the way, especially since Dalpa still can turn down code shares, which is what initially happens in the buyout of another airline. I don't see Dalpa going after any CRJ 70s or 76 seaters, rather making sure nothing more is taken away, and continue to watch the 50 seaters go away when their expensive mx checks are up. As far as future hiring, many of the RJ pilots will be hired at DL, and every other major that has unbelievable retirement numbers coming. Passenger service within the US is not going down (do you think so????), and retirement numbers are there. AA has an equal amount of Captains and FO the same age. It will be like a cliff there, with unbelievable numbers eventually needing to get hired. USAir East is full of senior citizens. United and CAL never had the big early out numbers after 9-11, and UAL starts retiring 1 Captain every 18 hours next month for age 65. Get the picture yet? RJ pilots will have a great chance to get hired eventually, it just has to start in the next year or two. Delta will lose 7600 pilots within the next 15 years, as stated in an article recently. And, there won't be cabbotage or any of that krap happening either.

Look Box, I post articles and don't change them. If you need to keep your head in the sand, then do it. Your retorts are worthless anyway. Enjoy ASA.



Bye Bye---General Lee

General, with respect, I do believe you're missing a couple of points here, and, furthermore, you're making a couple pretty large assumptions.

Firstly, the only way any labor group has any real leverage is if said group is doing something that:

1. Has to be done;

2. Has to be done by its members;

3. Has to be done in the same or greater quantity as is being done.

With that in mind, let's look at where a pilot group (and not just Delta) falls in that equation. Well, you have #1 in your favor for sure, you only partially have #2 (as evidenced by 50% of your lift being done by others) and you don't have #3 at all. Why? Because your CEO isn't paid to operate 700 (or whatever it is) airplanes, he is paid to run a profitable airline. So, if he cuts the company down to 300 (or even fewer) airplanes, and the operation is profitable at that level, he's done his job. So, your assumption that airlines have to stay at present levels or grow is just that, an assumption. Nothing says that's a requirement.

I happen to think you're right about consolidation, but it won't be that of pilots, it will be that of routes and infrastructures. So, you won't need all these airplanes and all these pilots.

Age 65? Wait til it turns into 75. Couldn't happen, right? The way 65 was never going to happen, right?

So, given all that, what real leverage do ANY of us have in this business?

 

[Flyer1015]

General Warts,

Within the next 5 years, expect to see the Bombardier C-Series at a regional airline operated by a Delta Connection carrier. Count on it. Your colleagues WILL sell out.

 

[General Lee]

General Warts,

Within the next 5 years, expect to see the Bombardier C-Series at a regional airline operated by a Delta Connection carrier. Count on it. Your colleagues WILL sell out.

Flyturd1069,

Not gonna happen. The next contract will be at least 4 years, and it will be ammendable late next year. I don't see any change at all to any scope, especially relaxation. That means you will still be at PNCL, in it's future state, which will be down to 40 Bandits and one Metro. You might be the Metro FO, and your 9 leg days will end at the same Super 8 hotel you love in Hibbing. You might as well find yourself a chunky Northern girl (or dude) and snuggle up each night, it's GONNA GET COLD FOR YOU.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General, with respect, I do believe you're missing a couple of points here, and, furthermore, you're making a couple pretty large assumptions.

Firstly, the only way any labor group has any real leverage is if said group is doing something that:

1. Has to be done;

2. Has to be done by its members;

3. Has to be done in the same or greater quantity as is being done.

With that in mind, let's look at where a pilot group (and not just Delta) falls in that equation. Well, you have #1 in your favor for sure, you only partially have #2 (as evidenced by 50% of your lift being done by others) and you don't have #3 at all. Why? Because your CEO isn't paid to operate 700 (or whatever it is) airplanes, he is paid to run a profitable airline. So, if he cuts the company down to 300 (or even fewer) airplanes, and the operation is profitable at that level, he's done his job. So, your assumption that airlines have to stay at present levels or grow is just that, an assumption. Nothing says that's a requirement.

I happen to think you're right about consolidation, but it won't be that of pilots, it will be that of routes and infrastructures. So, you won't need all these airplanes and all these pilots.

Age 65? Wait til it turns into 75. Couldn't happen, right? The way 65 was never going to happen, right?

So, given all that, what real leverage do ANY of us have in this business?

Leverage for us is the contract. It does not allow code-shares without Dalpa consent. When you merge with someone, you can't just do it right away (Gov't approval), so you have to code share initially. Dalpa obviously thought NWA was a good fit, so good ole LM decided to allow it.

One thing management does NOT want is to be fighting a contract when other possible mergers might be viable. As I stated earlier, the Delta President stated at a conference that airlines today are making more money because of consolidation, and that might be a hint at what is coming up. I was told directly that the VP of Flt Ops stated his wish for a speedy negotiation for this upcoming contract, and it was because the 2nd round COULD be coming up here. (he can't say what will or will not happen) They don't want the hassle. If you know this, then that is called leverage.

When you say this airline can be run at 700 or 300 airplanes, that is true. But, there are certain block hour limits, and other expensive things (contractual flow downs) that could turn out to be even more expensive alternatives. Any furloughs means Delta has to pay those pilots up to 6 months pay, then transfer them to Compass, pay for their Captain types, displace those Captains down the ladder to FO, furlough Compass FOs, etc etc etc. Apparently it would take 2 years out to make up for that cost. Within the next few years there will be lots of retirements starting, and eventually a flood of pilots leaving. You don't just give up the #2 airline spot in the World to stop those losses. At some point you need to keep making money to sustain it all. You have slots you need to maintain at certain airports or lose them (Narita and Heathrow for example). Any parking of planes also costs the company huge money, like the decision to dump the MEM pilot base recently. The moving of 200 or so pilots resulted in more than 800 trainings and a bunch of paid moves.

My point is that they can't just downsize without consequence, and that often can cost more than making the original decision. So, knowing all that, there is leverage there, and that is the company just wants to do things that don't cost them too much money, and that means sometimes not getting everything you want, like 100 seaters at DCI. Not gonna happen.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BigPappa]

Hate to be the one to point it out to you GL, but BOX OFFICE works for mainline Delta.

 

[General Lee]

Hate to be the one to point it out to you GL, but BOX OFFICE works for mainline Delta.

That's what she has said a couple times, but it sure doesn't seem to be true. If it is, who cares? I honestly don't. I'm probably way senior to her.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Clutch]

That's what she has said a couple times, but it sure doesn't seem to be true. If it is, who cares? I honestly don't. I'm probably way senior to her.


Bye Bye--General Lee

You ever watch football on Saturdays, pus sy?

 

[General Lee]

You ever watch football on Saturdays, pus sy?

No, I tend to watch it on Sundays. And I hope you aren't asking me out on a date? GROSS. The answer is NO. Go away.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Clutch]

No, I tend to watch it on Sundays. And I hope you aren't asking me out on a date? GROSS. The answer is NO. Go away.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Ahhh.... A yankee. And the root of your dooshiness is uncovered.

 

[Flyer1015]

Flyturd1069,

Not gonna happen. The next contract will be at least 4 years, and it will be ammendable late next year. I don't see any change at all to any scope, especially relaxation. That means you will still be at PNCL, in it's future state, which will be down to 40 Bandits and one Metro. You might be the Metro FO, and your 9 leg days will end at the same Super 8 hotel you love in Hibbing. You might as well find yourself a chunky Northern girl (or dude) and snuggle up each night, it's GONNA GET COLD FOR YOU.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Well, I hope you're right about Delta. I'd rather that those C-Series be at Delta, and that be the entry level plane at mainline. In the meantime, I have your wife to keep me warm. imp:

 

[JumpersAway]

Ok.... someone design a new RJ.

If they put another plug in the CRJ, it's gonna' suffer from E.D. ..........

 

[General Lee]

Ahhh.... A yankee. And the root of your dooshiness is uncovered.

Did you say you something about "yanking"? Me? Gross! Get away. Man alive, you are nasty.


Bye Bye--General Lee