So..the pilot shortage is coming?

[JokerFuel]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

 

[Redtailer]

Just curious, what is your source that gives you the impression Delta will be furloughing?

 

[General Lee]

Heard nothing about Delta furloughing. Nope. Like Redtailer asks, where are you coming up with this stuff?


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Question4U]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

They both have alot of retirements coming up. I can't see that happening.

 

[Lear70]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

 

[Whine Lover]

Well said Lear....and, while we are at it let's add this tidbit of reality:

THERE
NEVER
HAS
BEEN
NOR,
WILL
THERE
EVER
BE
A
"BIG ANNOUNCEMENT"
AT
ANY
AIRLINE


EVER.






YKW

 

[fam62c]

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

I agree but it depends on how you define shortage. Assuming the retirement age doesn't get pushed beyond age 65 (I think that it will at some point which changes everything) at some point you will see the large carriers starting to have to compete for the most qualified applicants and the days of candidates having multiple job offers will return in a few years. I don't think we will see much action in 2013 and maybe even 2014 because there are guys on the street that need to be absorbed but after that things should start to pick up.

If you define a pilot shortage as the top level employers (best pay, benefits and career progression) running out of applicants that meet their minimum requirements that is possible but unlikely anytime soon. The shortage will hit the regionals, charter companies, flight schools, bad part 91 operators/fractionals and "stepping stone" jet carriers first. The top of the food chain will be fine I think. It's easy to be pessimistic because of all the bad stuff we've seen recently in this industry but hiring can go from bad to good (or good to bad as we've seen) very quickly. The age 65 retirement numbers are convincing assuming that doesn't change and there is no economic meltdown that shrinks the industry. I think that new, young pilots just getting their qualifications now will have a much better and faster career path than those of us who starter 20 years ago and hit the gulf wars, 9-11, age 65, great recession and pretty much every other industry setback. BTW, one thing I've learned from life is never say never

 

[fam62c]

Well said Lear....and, while we are at it let's add this tidbit of reality:

THERE
NEVER
HAS
BEEN
NOR,
WILL
THERE
EVER
BE
A
"BIG ANNOUNCEMENT"
AT
ANY
AIRLINE


EVER.






YKW

But the rumor of such announcement will be ever-present

 

[HelloNewman]

There will not be a shortage anywhere. Plenty of people want to work at the majors and honestly with a glut of 50 seaters out there regionals are next to see consolidation. If there are not enough applicants at the regional level then more 50 seaters will be retired and simply not be replaced. Regionals will shrink and be full of senior lifers that keep hanging on to the titanic that is the contract business. Oh sure some companies will be left standing but my guess is comair is just the tip of the iceburg. Those people that live in places like springfield, il will simply have to drive to chicago if they want to fly.

 

[JECKEL]

US Airways is interviewing right now.
They hired 50 in the Spring, 40 this Summer and are planning to hire 70 this Fall.
Next year US Airways has plans to hire 300 pilots.

 

[Redtailer]

Wherever you get your information from it is really, really bad. Just 3 months ago RA stated in a check airmen meeting that DL will be hiring early 2013. That was reiterated on the bid that was just posted so someone is on something good saying DL is furloughing.

As for a shortage, it's like most everyone here already said. The majors will not feel the pinch of a shortage. In fact it is even more competitive because guys have been stuck in the regionals longer giving them higher qualifications.

Even my worst days at a major beat my best days at a regional there is just no comparison. So there will always be competition for those jobs.

Regional level flying however is a whole other thing. If someone told you that you were going to be stuck at a regional for at least 5 years coming in to this and still no gurantee of a major job, would you do it? With the new rgs coming in to place next year it will be an interesting market for sure.

 

[Tanker Clown]

I've been hearing that Delta is going to furlough as well. That is unless the pilots give concessions. If they give up more scope, pay, and work rules they just might not furlough. Although they probably will anyway.

 

[Redtailer]

I've been hearing that Delta is going to furlough as well. That is unless the pilots give concessions. If they give up more scope, pay, and work rules they just might not furlough. Although they probably will anyway.

Whoever you guys are listening to I suggest you stop. Immediately.

You do know DL pilots just ratified a new agreement that went in to effect Jul 1 right? There was a 12% pay increase in the first year and overall the scope was tightened not to mention all of the other things that are triggered with scope, block hours and schedules with a furlough.

All of that aside did you not notice DL is adding aircraft to the fleet for a net gain of hulls? They are taking all of AirTrns 717s and have 737-900 arriving in a few months. Yep they will furlough.

Guys please do your homework opposed to just repeating crap.

 

[Tanker Clown]

I know Red. That didn't last long did it? Oh well, didn't Delta get a fat new contract right before they furloughed in 2001? The concessions will, of course, come first though.

 

[Lear70]

Don't feed the troll...

 

[DeucesWild]

Whoever you guys are listening to I suggest you stop. Immediately.

You do know DL pilots just ratified a new agreement that went in to effect Jul 1 right? There was a 12% pay increase in the first year and overall the scope was tightened not to mention all of the other things that are triggered with scope, block hours and schedules with a furlough.

All of that aside did you not notice DL is adding aircraft to the fleet for a net gain of hulls? They are taking all of AirTrns 717s and have 737-900 arriving in a few months. Yep they will furlough.

Guys please do your homework opposed to just repeating crap.

Hook, line, and sinker....

Tanker - you always manage to evoke a chuckle from me (one of the reasons I stop by FI now and then)!

 

[Redtailer]

Don't feed the troll...

Yep, you right... I'm done..

 

[waveflyer]

I'd beg to differ on the scope "tightening" but im pretty sure everyone knows what I think of that

 

[xjhawk]

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

Replace the red highlighted area with "The majors will be taking young inexperienced pilots that HR is looking to meet its quota or who have great internal recommendations". Or "the majors will be excluding any with too much experience (rumor about Delta's Airapps will not even look at your resume if you have over 7500 hours) or is too old as HR has done studies about the great abilities and trainability of those right out of flight school"

Yeah, this is a hook line and sinker thread, quite enjoyable to read. But the truth of the matter is that there are what, an expected 10,000 mainline jobs coming in the next ten years? Great, there just happens to be 20,000 regional pilots. And with Comair (Delta) putting 600 out on the street and you can look at Pinnacle and see there will be about another 1000 more by 2015 there will be a lot more applicants for those jobs. I love how the majors will lower their hiring minimums to hire the inexperienced but will not over look the lack of currency for those who have lost their jobs.

If you are at a major, why not ask why your HR departments are not taking the best most qualified, but are just lowering the bar in order to get the "ones they want"

 

[JokerFuel]

I honestly wasn't trying to start any rumours. A friend of mine is a very senior Delta captain. It must have been speculation, or I misunderstood. So I guess that's me...starting rumours. Apologies gents. The best to us all.

 

[Data]

I honestly wasn't trying to start any rumours. A friend of mine is a very senior Delta captain. It must have been speculation, or I misunderstood. So I guess that's me...starting rumours. Apologies gents. The best to us all.

Senior captains fall right under van drivers in the list of approved rumor sources. Very senior captains are even further down that list, right on top of dispatchers.

 

[Tanker Clown]

Senior captains fall right under van drivers in the list of approved rumor sources. Very senior captains are even further down that list, right on top of dispatchers.

Speaking of van drivers, I heard the new Delta contract puts CA pay close to a van drivers! Of course the van driver has bigger stones and actually has some scope protections.

 

[Whine Lover]

T. Clown...

Why?

Seriously.

What is your motivation for the venom you spew in these Forums?

I wish you well in whatever you choose to do...But, I don't understand what you attempt to do here.

?


YKW

 

[Tanker Clown]

Just wish Delta would stop lowering the bar. They got some raises (until they give up concessions again) but it came at the price of leaving the door open on scope.

 

[caseyd]

Just curious, what is your source that gives you the impression Delta will be furloughing?

Or US Airways?

 

[ASA_Aviator]

The majors may never run out of qualified applicants, but they will have to lower their standards a little, and compete. Right now, they can be really choosy. In 2-3 years, they will compete for the best applicants. In 5-10 years, definitely they will have to work a little to compete. There just aren't enough guys at the regionals to fill all the positions, and not too many corporate guys will go to the airlines unless it's a sweet gig.

It all depends on what you mean by shortage. I think the airline recruiters will feel it's a shortage, even if the applicants don't feel that way. The recruiters aren't accustomed to competing. Right now, the applicants are the ones competing, so it will be a paradigm shift for the majors.

 

[livin'thesim]

The term "shortage" is meaningless, because it means too many things to too many different people.

1) The new flight and duty rules will probably make a notable portion of regional flying much more expensive than before, especially given the duty-day restrictions. The effect on the regionals will probably be more noticeable than the legacies.

2) Eventually, retirements will accelerate. If the retirement numbers on airlinepilotcentral are even close to correct, hiring at the majors will likely be at a brisk pace.

3) Unless the 1500 hour rule is substantially mitigated or repealed, there will be no more 300-hour regional FOs. This closes off one path for flight-time accrual for new professional pilots.

4) The new-pilot pipeline has not been pumping out candidates at the previous rate, due to the economic conditions in the US.


Rather than call it a "shortage", I think a more accurate way to describe the coming conditions is to call it a more favorable negotiating environment for qualified pilots.


It was not that long ago that 95% of the US population used to say stupid things like "housing prices will never crash" and "housing never goes down", and all manner of ignorant opinions.

The fact is that there are many variables that are coming into play in the next few years, and that off-the-cuff predictions of shortages or non-shortages need to be based on a lot more critical thinking than is being given to the topic.

Pilots love to whine and complain about how mistreated they are, and how unfortunate their career path has been, but surprisingly few of them are willing to invest the time and mental energy into analyzing how all these trends interact.

As an example, consider pensions. I'm sure that in the past, there were a few lonely souls who wanted to demand that pensions be fully funded and set aside in accounts that management could not access. Instead, everyone was content with the idea that future pension obligations would be paid from future profits.

Oops.

The gutting of pension plans should have been completely predictable. And avoidable.

Similarly, you can bet your bottom dollar that legacy management is spending some time and effort analyzing the dynamics of pilot supply and making decisions accordingly.

As usual, labor groups seem to prefer whining to real analysis, putting even more control of our future in the hands of management, who has no problem making a cold, objective analysis of the economics of the industry.


The most dramatic outcome that I am willing to predict:

True dirtbag operations (both 135 and 121) will have difficulty retaining pilots. Craphole regionals whose entire profitability rests on 16 hour duty days and the deliberate use of reduced rest will have their business models RADICALLY altered.

The price of regional lift will likely increase. Possibly substantially.

 

[pilotyip]

The term "shortage" is meaningless, because it means too many things to too many different people.


True dirtbag operations (both 135 and 121) will have difficulty retaining pilots. Craphole regionals whose entire profitability rests on 16 hour duty days and the deliberate use of reduced rest will have their business models RADICALLY altered.

In the words of Avbug, remember him, there will never be a pilot shortage. But in the words of yip, there is a hiring boom coming that will look like the 60's and late 90's were things like the college degree were no longer a show stopper for a major job. TJ PIC will be the resume fluff of the future. As per above where is that going to come from.

Not sure about dirtbags retaining pilots, many of these dirtbag pilots are making $100K+ and are in their 50's. Little chance to come out ahead on the money chain by taking a lower paying job on the bottom of a seniority list at that stage of life.

 

[Lear70]

*snerk*

YIP likes to ignore a little history...

When the hiring picks up at a very brisk pace at other companies, including regionals, the "less desirable" outfits that work you to the bone lose just about everyone who CAN leave.

There are always lifers, whether it's because they got in the game late and don't want to start over again or if it's because they have a record that won't let them hold a SIDA badge but they can be on a GA ramp and be itinerant through other airports, etc, etc. But those who CAN leave, have in the past and will continue to do so, which is what leads to operators having to cancel flights, scream for pilots, lower their minimums, hiring directly into the left seat, operators paying more short-term (until the situation goes the other way then they drop the pay again), etc, etc. Which, interestingly enough, makes life even CRAPIER for the people still there trying to cover the flying...

I don't know if it'll be prolonged enough to shift the business model PERMANENTLY, but it'll definitely shift for a good while, perhaps too long for those operators to sustain their business model. Time will tell...

 

[densoo]

As an example, consider pensions. I'm sure that in the past, there were a few lonely souls who wanted to demand that pensions be fully funded and set aside in accounts that management could not access. Instead, everyone was content with the idea that future pension obligations would be paid from future profits.

Oops.

The gutting of pension plans should have been completely predictable. And avoidable.

Great points you make. A bit of thread drift on pensions follows but every airline pilot has been affected by this. Many (most?) large companies were completely funded and then some through the 90s. Earlier law required worker pensions to be fully funded from current obligations AND prohibited companies from using these pension funds for anything else.

When the market zoomed in the 90s the pensions had so much money that they could pay out fully for every employee, including new hires, even if they all lived to 99. Execs found this inaccessabilty to our own contractually-agreed-to pension funds unacceptable and lobbied hard to free this huge pension pot of money to recapitalize business to "be competitive and create jobs."

Congress eventually gave in and the execs then took the pension money and in one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history, instead of investing in their company and creating jobs, gave it to themselves. It's part of the reason CEO compensation went from 20x worker salary to 400x worker salary from 1980 to today.

Then pleading that the now empty pension funds and now newly unfunded future obligations (remember the "$2000 of every car goes to union pensions" propaganda?) were killing their business and making them unable to be "be competitive and create jobs," (that mantra always seems to work) they threatened or entered BK in order to eliminate pensions altogether.

Voila, the once fully-funded pension money has been transferred, there are no more pensions for workers, the economy tanks, jobless and retirees increasing rely on the government, and the same folks who took the pensions--impoverishing the retiree and not creating the promised jobs--turn around and buy politicians who will "get government out of our lives" by defunding safety nets.

It's all been conducted like a symphony. Darwinian capitalism at its finest. Read all about it in the book "Retirement Heist."