So..the pilot shortage is coming?

[pilotyip]

And yes, YIP can be good for time-building and moving on, but the other poster's point was that if you never escape, there's usually a reason. Very few, if any, stayed there because they wanted to. I'd submit that, like you, they made management positions and just got comfy. Anyone who isn't management and is still there more than likely isn't there by choice. A few exceptions, but most want to get their time and get out, the lifestyle sucks and if the economy is bad, the pay sucks too.

True story.

Fair enough, but it is market forces that determine what pilots will be paid. Unless re-reg happens where the CAB has to approve every route and fee schedule, we remain in competitive industry with a consumer who looks for lowest cost. Re-reg would allow airlines to pass costs along in a price fixed industry where pilot costs can be passed along. Life was good for a few pilots under regulation. There are probably 4-5 times as many pilot’s jobs now as there was in 1977. Back in reg time it was about 90% military that went to the majors. Dereg opened up a lot of airline job to non-military pilots. To return to regulation would raise ticket prices, reduce the number of passengers, and therefore reduce the number of pilots needed.

BTW Here is another reason pilots stay at YIP, they are making well in excess of $100K, they are in their mid-50's and will never recoup their drop in income by moving to another airline. Besides half our flying now is scheduled passenger and there is an escape from the 30 minute call out. I also detect a little of the common FI there in your post "I don't work at YIP, therefore I am better than you"

 

[Lear70]

BTW Here is another reason pilots stay at YIP, they are making well in excess of $100K, they are in their mid-50's and will never recoup their drop in income by moving to another airline. Besides half our flying now is scheduled passenger and there is an escape from the 30 minute call out.

You just proved our point. You shouldn't HAVE to take such a huge hit in your income to go work somewhere else. Market forces or not, that playing field could be leveled without increasing the existing size of the "pie".

I also detect a little of the common FI there in your post "I don't work at YIP, therefore I am better than you"

You forget, I *USED* to work at YIP... for almost 3 years, and relatively recently as well.

It's not "I'm better", it's "I moved on and recognize that almost all my coworkers wanted to as well, and many already have." It is what it is... good for building time, good people to work with, and I do feel grateful to have had a place to land at a bad time in my life, but few pilots I ever met think it's a preferable career gig.

 

[fam62c]

If the pay is not good, the lifestyle is no good and the career path is difficult why do people do this? It should be a self-correcting problem under these circumstances, people should either not enter the profession or leave the profession and not come back, the resultant shortage of labor would start to fix the problems. For now at least though there is still an adequate supply of pilots in the USA and most pilots I know who have left the profession to get "normal" jobs return to flying even with all the pitfalls. I know plenty of people in other industries and they have had a tough time in this economy too. I think that more than a few pilots who left flying found out that it's a lot harder to make a decent income doing something else than they thought it would be, especially in a tough economy. Airline pilot experience is of very little value to the folks doing the hiring in other industries.

Things are not perfect and they never will be, there will always be winners and losers in this industry and in many cases luck and timing has a lot to do with where you end up more than any other factor, it's very difficult to see the future when you decide to accept a job. I think if age 65 holds things will be much better for the next generation of pilots than they were for many of us. For now things are the way they are and that's how it is.

 

[livin'thesim]

Steeply scaled longevity pay is probably the single largest roadblock to the self-correcting effect that we would otherwise expect to see.

There is no such thing as a totally free market most of the time. There is always a regulation, law, union rule, preferred market element (such as the jurassic requirement for 20/20 uncorrected vision).

At best, some markets are more free than others. I completely support unionization of pilots, but I am honest enough to recognize that unionization makes the market less free.

I believe that the pros of unionization outweigh the cons, which is my opinion only.

I believe seniority as we practice it now has more advantages than disadvantages.

But steeply scaled longevity pay benefits the few at the expense of the many. It is the single largest change that could feasibly be made.

 

[jonjuan]

Like a nsl, there's no way to change it without affecting the "those who have.". They will fight tooth and nail to keep it as is.
Should someone propose increasing payrates of years 1-5 by 50-100%, those at the top will bitch that the pay raises are coming out of their pockets.

 

[Jetjockey]

There will be a pilot shortage right after the Chicago Cubs win the world series.

Two things I'm convinced I will never see in my lifetime.

 

[fam62c]

Like a nsl, there's no way to change it without affecting the "those who have.". They will fight tooth and nail to keep it as is.
Should someone propose increasing payrates of years 1-5 by 50-100%, those at the top will bitch that the pay raises are coming out of their pockets.

True, airline pay scales have always been more capitalistic than socialistic. The idea has always been that you will be senior longer than you will be junior and everybody will eventually be a senior captain. Unfortunately, with all the airline failures over the years, mergers and furloughs these assumptions are not always valid.

I still believe the thing that will eventually help will be a reduction in the supply of pilots. This will dictate that the airlines that want the most qualified applicants will have to make their entry level compensation more attractive than their peers. It may never happen, we will just have to wait and see. The vast majority of pilots at any airline are not new hires and they will never support taking money from the more senior and giving it to the more junior. Low probationary pay is an unfortunate tradition in this industry that you don't see so much in other professions.

 

[Lear70]

You'd have to phase it in during a period of hiring, when the majority of pilots are >5 years of longevity and you only take from the year 2-5 wages and add it to the 1st year rate.

For instance, when Southwest starts hiring again, there will be no one on Year 5 rates. Everyone there now is on year 2 and getting ready to go to year 3. By the time the integration is done and attrition takes care of the 2-3% overstaffing issue, they'll all be at year 6.

So you take $5 per hour/trip off the Year 2, 3, 4, and 5 pay rates and put it on the Year 1 rate, making it $20 per hour/trip higher than it already is.

If you did this at Delta/United/USAirways hiring, you'd have a net increase of $20 an hour, or approximately $20k more in salary for the first year pilot than the $30-40k they make now, making starting pay at least $50k-60k, going to $65-75k 2nd year, and $2-3k per year increases after that until you hit year 6 pay where it stays on the existing schedule.

There's a way to do it NOW, if unions and management would get together to do it. It increases 1st year pay rates, which increases costs NOW for management, but it equalizes in later years. That's the down-side for management, you don't get that immediate cost savings on new-hires to off-set the cost of running classes, but they recapture it later...

 

[fam62c]

You'd have to phase it in during a period of hiring, when the majority of pilots are >5 years of longevity and you only take from the year 2-5 wages and add it to the 1st year rate.

For instance, when Southwest starts hiring again, there will be no one on Year 5 rates. Everyone there now is on year 2 and getting ready to go to year 3. By the time the integration is done and attrition takes care of the 2-3% overstaffing issue, they'll all be at year 6.

So you take $5 per hour/trip off the Year 2, 3, 4, and 5 pay rates and put it on the Year 1 rate, making it $20 per hour/trip higher than it already is.

If you did this at Delta/United/USAirways hiring, you'd have a net increase of $20 an hour, or approximately $20k more in salary for the first year pilot than the $30-40k they make now, making starting pay at least $50k-60k, going to $65-75k 2nd year, and $2-3k per year increases after that until you hit year 6 pay where it stays on the existing schedule.

There's a way to do it NOW, if unions and management would get together to do it. It increases 1st year pay rates, which increases costs NOW for management, but it equalizes in later years. That's the down-side for management, you don't get that immediate cost savings on new-hires to off-set the cost of running classes, but they recapture it later...

That's a possible solution but as you mentioned there is a potential negative for management which means some amount of negotiating capital must be expended on the part of the union to get it done, that's always true of anything the union wants even if the cost to the company is zero. So the question becomes; will the membership support expending negotiating capital on an issue that doesn't help the people already on the property but benefits the "unborn?" I don't know the answer to that question but I can make an educated guess based on historical precedent

 

[pilotyip]

Like a nsl, there's no way to change it without affecting the "those who have.". They will fight tooth and nail to keep it as is.
Should someone propose increasing payrates of years 1-5 by 50-100%, those at the top will bitch that the pay raises are coming out of their pockets.

ah! the beauty of the brotherhood, majority rules

 

[Lear70]

So the question becomes; will the membership support expending negotiating capital on an issue that doesn't help the people already on the property but benefits the "unborn?" I don't know the answer to that question but I can make an educated guess based on historical precedent

LOL... nice, and unfortunately true.

 

[pilotyip]

LOL... nice, and unfortunately true.

so it is not management, it is those greedy senior union members, the guys who built up the union and pay most of the dues who are at fault.

 

[Lear70]

so it is not management, it is those greedy senior union members, the guys who built up the union and pay most of the dues who are at fault.

Well, there you go on a tangent again.

I'll break it down for you: either management agrees to not save as much money on 1st year pay to offset training costs (which makes the balance sheet look worse at the end of the year which affects stock price), or the existing pilots (senior guys and gals) agree to give up something that will benefit them to make it more enticing for management to do so for people who aren't even on property yet.

The money is there, you're not increasing the size of the pie, you're just going to have to bargain for it. Something I think ALPA should focus on given the state of the industry the last 12-15 years and the musical airlines some pilots have to play.

Then again, in the future, it will probably be easier for pilots to go to one Major and have a furlough-free career, barring some world disaster. We are the "lost" generation of pilots: those who didn't benefit from the high salaries that came with regulation nor benefited from the massive hiring later and have suffered through 9/11 and two major recessions, one in the late 90's and one over the last 5 years or so.

It is what it is, and through all the ups and downs, don't know if I'd have picked a different career.

 

[jonjuan]

Fwiw, in 2013, DAL is $66 year one and $97 year two. Are they already there?

 

[Twisted Mind]

Yip, In this case I agree with you. At times the Union is it's own worst enemy.

 

[Denizen]

Almost a reasonable post that market forces and the pressure to maintain profitability drive pilot wages. Except a little name calling, but hey it is FI. This board is guilty of "group Think" of the underpaid overworked pilot. Anyone who posts the reality outside of that "group think" has to be attacked.

Wouldn't be FI without a little name calling. I know you like living there, but lets face it-it sucks. However putting the smack down on pilots, that is something all MGT can get behind. It is easy and yields instant results. JUS should cut the pay of the top half of the seniority list. Why not, they can't leave. Think of the bonus available for mid-managment.

 

[pilotyip]

Wouldn't be FI without a little name calling. I know you like living there, but lets face it-it sucks. However putting the smack down on pilots, that is something all MGT can get behind. It is easy and yields instant results. JUS should cut the pay of the top half of the seniority list. Why not, they can't leave. Think of the bonus available for mid-managment.

Fits perfectly, I post outside of "Group Think" and I am attacked. BTW You show you may have upper management potential with those thoughts

 

[atpcliff]

Just saw an ad for China...used to be they only hired Captains for the contract jobs..this one was hiring Capts, Cruise Captains, AND FOs.

Also saw a new ad for small Airbus captains at up to 20K/month, plus bonuses, overtime, etc. I have seen more than 3 places hiring at $20K/month...up from $12K 3-4 years ago.

cliff
GRB

 

[Lear70]

It's going to get better for us (worse for them) in the next few years, barring some economic crisis.

We have several of our AirTran Captains planning to leave for these jobs and not come back. They are 50 or so with no hope of ever seeing the Captain's seat again. Can't really blame them.

 

[Denizen]

Fits perfectly, I post outside of "Group Think" and I am attacked. BTW You show you may have upper management potential with those thoughts

I hope so! It feels good to be on the winning side.

 

[Flyby1206]

Seniority and longevity are two separate items.

Longevity payscales were created so there was a carrot at the end of a stick. 1st year pay sucks because those dollars/hr are used to fund that high end payscale at the 12+yr point. Senior pilots can say "youve gotta pay your dues, son" and junior pilots have no other option but to accept it if they hope to make a living.

Why dont unions eliminate that steep longevity? Because then pilots wouldn't be 'trapped' in a company payscale and could transfer between carriers without suffering financially. If that were the case then companies would be stuck paying for increased training events (people coming and going more frequently) and unions would be in danger of losing dues money from pilots going to companies represented by other unions (or non-union).

My dream would be for unions to assume all training and checking responsibility, and get a national training program approved for any given aircraft. If you fly the 737 for DAL, UAL, AA then the training program would be the same (like FlightSafety does with bizjets). When a company needs 737 pilots they go to the union and pay them a flat fee per pilot. Union takes current 737 pilots first, then anyone who has a 737 type, then applications from non rated pilots.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

It's going to get better for us (worse for them) in the next few years, barring some economic crisis.

We have several of our AirTran Captains planning to leave for these jobs and not come back. They are 50 or so with no hope of ever seeing the Captain's seat again. Can't really blame them.

A company like SWA losing pilots to the expat market, of course these individuals sircumstances are unique to them due to the merger but still, it is an interesting development none the less.

 

[Lear70]

A company like SWA losing pilots to the expat market, of course these individuals sircumstances are unique to them due to the merger but still, it is an interesting development none the less.

You're going to see some junior folks go to Delta as well. If they're under 40 and less than 5 years' longevity, they'll make over a Million more during their career with access to widebody aircraft and half the time to upgrade.

Not highly shocking; like you said, people will do what they need to for their own individual circumstances. Most will stay, but some will go...

 

[bluesideup1]

You're going to see some junior folks go to Delta as well. If they're under 40 and less than 5 years' longevity, they'll make over a Million more during their career with access to widebody aircraft and half the time to upgrade.

Not highly shocking; like you said, people will do what they need to for their own individual circumstances. Most will stay, but some will go...

Is that before or after the two furloughs?

 

[fam62c]

A company like SWA losing pilots to the expat market, of course these individuals sircumstances are unique to them due to the merger but still, it is an interesting development none the less.

We will see what happens but this may just be talk. When the rubber meets the road I don't think many pilots at AT are going to leave a good paying, stable flying job in the USA to start at a foreign carrier. Those jobs are the jobs guys take because they can't find a decent paying job for a good company in the USA. A lot of AT guys are frustrated by the way this went down and may say they are leaving but I bet very few actually will.

I do think there will be some younger, junior guys at AT and probably some younger "real" SW guys as well who will leave for Delta. 20+ years in the right seat of a 737 bouncing up and down all day probably doesn't sound that good to the younger guys who have a lot of years left. SW is a great company but many of the younger guys will want a career with more progression and more options.

 

[Dash Power]

You're going to see some junior folks go to Delta as well. If they're under 40 and less than 5 years' longevity, they'll make over a Million more during their career with access to widebody aircraft and half the time to upgrade.

Not highly shocking; like you said, people will do what they need to for their own individual circumstances. Most will stay, but some will go...

Ahhhhhh....

Someone has the airline pilot crystal ball. I have been looking for that going on 30 years now. Because NO ONE has ever accurately predicted the changes in the airline industry that inevitably occurs daily that affects our career progression.

Some guys just can't take a downgrade. Its not in their bag of tools. There are some at the regionals that made it a career there because of their addition to the Captain seat. Its ok. To each their own.

For better or for worse there is one thing I can guarantee, how one looks at Delta's future based on today's numbers will be completely wrong about their predictions today. This is true for every airline.

It looked like a 4 year upgrade at one legacy I was hired only to be furloughed 10 months later. No joke.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

We will see what happens but this may just be talk. When the rubber meets the road I don't think many pilots at AT are going to leave a good paying, stable flying job in the USA to start at a foreign carrier. Those jobs are the jobs guys take because they can't find a decent paying job for a good company in the USA.

I laugh every time somebody makes this statement, you have no idea as to how many people have and continue to quit jobs at mainline carriers in the US to go abroad, I am an example of it since I didn't accept a job with a legacy to come here, we have people here that have resigned their seniority to airlines in the US to continue their employment abroad, everyone has different reasons to do what they do, there is no right or wrong way and generalizing is unrealistic and pointless. I do agree that somebody in their late 30's has a long career ahead and it might be fruitful on the long run, but saying that the US expat community exists because they can't get a job in the US is a ridiculous statement, jobs there are a few in the US, jobs that pay 200+K a year with 14 days off a month, those are the ones that we can't get.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

This reminded me of a conversation we had recently with a couple of FDX guys, we were celebrating the upgrade of one of our guys (former NWA/DL) after the usual introductions and explanation about our work here, one of the guys said "of course you are updating your applications in the US right?" when he heard that our new captain had resigned his seniority, he got a little bent out of shape about it, I told him that I had decided not to take a job there and a couple more guys that were there mentioned how the have been recalled a couple of times but have no plans to go back, he started to mentioned several reasons as to why our position was completely wrong and how much he stress that we needed to put in our app with FDX yadda, yadda......! But our recently promoted captain said it best when he mentioned that none of us had given a good reason to work here instead of back home, the guy just answered, "I'm happy" To each it's own brother, to each it's own.

 

[LGU]

All the domestic jobs must go to those that are "punctual." 8)

 

[fam62c]

I laugh every time somebody makes this statement, you have no idea as to how many people have and continue to quit jobs at mainline carriers in the US to go abroad, I am an example of it since I didn't accept a job with a legacy to come here, we have people here that have resigned their seniority to airlines in the US to continue their employment abroad, everyone has different reasons to do what they do, there is no right or wrong way and generalizing is unrealistic and pointless. I do agree that somebody in their late 30's has a long career ahead and it might be fruitful on the long run, but saying that the US expat community exists because they can't get a job in the US is a ridiculous statement, jobs there are a few in the US, jobs that pay 200+K a year with 14 days off a month, those are the ones that we can't get.

Fair enough, so how many AirTran pilots have left for jobs like this since the SW merger was announced? How many SW pilots have left for jobs like this in the last year? How many Delta pilots have left for jobs like this in the last year? How many USA major airline pilots were leaving for jobs like this in the 1990's when things were still good at the US majors?

Don't take this personally, if you like what you are doing that's great and I'm sure some people love working for the foreign carriers and are very happy. I am sure some of those jobs are very good. I'm just saying that I don't think many AT pilots with 5, 10 or 15 years of longevity are going to quit and go work for a foreign carrier out of the USA regardless of what they may say. I will believe it when they start resigning.