So..the pilot shortage is coming?

[pilotyip]

I would rephrase your statement to be:
"...with a marketplace that would not support profitable airline ticket prices at the level of volume that the airlines were seeking..."

rephrase accepted, but we have to admit that the ticket buying plays a role in airline operations and can not be ignored by management or labour.

 

[livin'thesim]

Yes. My belief is that the majors were attempting to push their competition into an unsustainable position.

Airline service is a mature product, without a substantially different passenger experience. There are few avenues other than price to grow an airline.

Technology? Apple sells more tablets because they are perceived to have a cooler, more capable product. Hard to differentiate since all airlines have the same basic aircraft. You could always do free wifi, or something, but this will only affect market share at the margin.

Service? People do care about service, but it is very easy to copy a successful competitor's service methods, leaving most airlines relatively similar in this regard. People won't pay much extra for a friendlier gate agent.

On-time arrivals? Again, there are more similarities than differences between airlines. No airline has a real edge here, and unless you have passengers being substantially late, they will only pay so more more to save a few minutes.

Safety? Most airlines are about the same. The safety-improvement process has fully matured and any improvements will likely be implemented at all airlines.


This leaves price. Selling air travel is more like gasoline or new mufflers than it is selling iPads or new furniture.


An absurd but interesting thought exercise that proves this is to imagine for a second that there was such a thing as Star Trek style teleporting. Assuming for the sake of argument that it was cheap and safe, airline travel would be decimated.

People do not buy tickets because they like flying, they buy tickets because they want to get somewhere else.

People may LOVE driving their car, but they do not like buying gasoline. Most people will buy the cheapest product that will not ruin their car. Remember when we were kids and gas companies used to tout their superior fuels on TV ads? They still do, but not like before. Now they make their money selling you a Coke and chips when you gas up. Most people could care less about whose fuel blend is better for their injectors.

Pilots need to make a realistic assessment about this factor when they discuss pilot pay and benefits. We are only paid to the extent we are needed.

 

[kf4amu]

Safety? Most airlines are about the same. The safety-improvement process has fully matured and any improvements will likely be implemented at all airlines.

Not if it costs money. I disagree, there are airlines that are much safer than others. Safety improvement is not limited to programs and policies, culture is a much larger driver of safety than these defined boxes of safety management systems

 

[livin'thesim]

Not if it costs money. I disagree, there are airlines that are much safer than others. Safety improvement is not limited to programs and policies, culture is a much larger driver of safety than these defined boxes of safety management systems

As an industry insider, yes. But we are talking about factors that drive public perception and ticket buying.

To the uneducated public jet=safe, prop=less safe. More engines=safer. Bigger jet=safer.

You could have a first-rate prop operator and a dirtbag jet operator, and the public will assume the jet is safer. Because they are ignorant and emotional in their decision making.

Also, please remember that I was talking legacy carriers ONLY, in the above post. The safety levels there are more similar than different.

So my original point still stands: Safety, service, on-time are all elements people care about, but it is not possible to grow an airline by SELLING those factors to the customer.

Is a more safe airline probably more profitable because of fewer incidents? YES!! But that is COST-control, not profitability through better marketing.


I will estimate that 80% or more of the public's ticket-buying decision comes down to cost, provided similar departure time and number of connecting flights.

The industry has mostly matured, and it is a game of inches and cost-control, and hoping your competition screws up and loses money.

There is little room for innovation, and even if you innovate, your method is easily copied, eliminating the advantage.

 

[pilotyip]

Pilots need to make a realistic assessment about this factor when they discuss pilot pay and benefits. We are only paid to the extent we are needed.

The reality of a pilots job, you can only be paid what an airline can afford without going to BK.

 

[livin'thesim]

Supply and demand. A beautiful, dispassionate teller of economic truth.

 

[clippyrip]

Claiming someone is regurgitating Fox news is the equivalent of regurgitating whatever someone else says without 'doing the research'. A bit ironic if you ask me.

 

[waveflyer]

The reality of a pilots job, you can only be paid what an airline can afford without going to BK.

Then why don't FedEx pilots make $2M a year, when their companies are 20 times as profitable as airlines. Think there might be more to it than affordability?

Seniority compromises the free hand of labor-
We do not get paid a market wage, we get paid a negotiated, highly political wage artificially skewed by the constraints of the RLA & NMB

That has given us inflated wages before, and it has given us pay well below market in the post 9/11 world.

 

[pilotyip]

Then why don't FedEx pilots make $2M a year, when their companies are 20 times as profitable as airlines. Think there might be more to it than affordability?

Seniority compromises the free hand of labor-
We do not get paid a market wage, we get paid a negotiated, highly political wage artificially skewed by the constraints of the RLA & NMB

That has given us inflated wages before, and it has given us pay well below market in the post 9/11 world.

FedEx is a profitable company they can pay top wages and still have money to invest in the airline's future without borrowing. Trying force FedEx wages at Omni, Kitty Hawk, or DHL would result in BK. Whoops a couple of those have already gone belly up.

 

[waveflyer]

That wasn't the question-