So..the pilot shortage is coming?

[Lear70]

and the airlines have lost a combined $!1B+ in the first half of the year, where is all this money going to come from to give pilots all this money?

I'm sorry, did you miss the point of the discussion, Professor?

We're talking about LEVELING the playing field. As in, taking some of the steep increases out of 1st-to-2nd year and 2nd-to-3rd year pay and making 1st year pay much higher, increases in 2nd and subsequent years to possibly year 5 or 6 pay not so drastic, which is the SAME total pie, just redistributed so that those who WANT to leave don't go from making $95k a year to $36k a year and, thus, CAN'T go to another airline unless their spouse makes enough to hold them afloat that 1st year.

The increase in salaries is a different argument, but the airlines are solving that problem for us. Decreased competition, decreased ASM's equals increased pricing power and the bottom line is that most people will pay for it rather than go Greyhound or drive their own car (which is much more expensive than the tickets still).

Proof? Easy... airlines have raised fares an average of $18 per ticket this year alone, and during the Spring and Summer months we left people at the gate nearly every leg. Even in "off" season right now, the loads are still pretty decent.

Prices are going to come up... slowly... and people are going to pay it. The cost of EVERYTHING in life goes up... an airline ticket is no different, costing much more now to produce than in years past. Like any business, you pass that cost onto the consumer, and in this case, with decreased competition, the consumer has no choice but to pay it.

Been needing to happen for decades...

 

[pilotyip]

I'm sorry, did you miss the point of the discussion, Professor?

Ha Ha, yea just like the union fanatics at places I have worked, here we have some of the highest pays jobs in the country, average pilot who has been in this business for 10 years is in the upper 10% of all US wage earners, and you don't even need a college degree to get to this level. But that is not good enough for many pilots, they must always have more pay, more job security and more days off. Until of course they have no pay, all their days off and no job, will the junior guys anyway. Senior guys always make out.:laugh:

From 2nd half profits. Just watch and learn, pops.

I will gladly wait, now what exactly is going to happen?

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Ha Ha, yea just like the union fanatics at places I have worked, here we have some of the highest pays jobs in the country, average pilot who has been in this business for 10 years is in the upper 10% of all US wage earners, and you don't even need a college degree to get to this level. But that is not good enough for many pilots, they must always have more pay, more job security and more days off. Until of course they have no pay, all their days off and no job, will the junior guys anyway. Senior guys always make out.:laugh:


I will gladly wait, now what exactly is going to happen?

Sorry for intruding in your discussion, I don't have a dog in this fight, thank God.

I do respect a lot of your points but you always seem to try to compare what pilots make to what the rest of the population makes as a whole and I don't agree with this formula, we are talking about a business that due to your technical expertice will produce hundreds of millions during your productive life as a worker, the comparison should be with employees in a similar productive scheme, not to what the checkout lady at JC Penney's makes (no disrespect to you ladies working there, you always smell so nice!) I think that you have bought into the whole concept of the employee salaries is what makes or breaks a company hum? I have a nice piece of beachfront property about 25 KM north of Narita for sale if you are interested

 

[labbats]

Ha Ha, yea just like the union fanatics at places I have worked, here we have some of the highest pays jobs in the country, average pilot who has been in this business for 10 years is in the upper 10% of all US wage earners, and you don't even need a college degree to get to this level. But that is not good enough for many pilots, they must always have more pay, more job security and more days off. Until of course they have no pay, all their days off and no job, will the junior guys anyway. Senior guys always make out.:laugh:


I will gladly wait, now what exactly is going to happen?

Compare what I make having gone to flight school and the price paid for admission as well as the insulting pay all the way up to what I currently make to what I would have made had I just become a Southwest flight attendant on my first day of flight training. I'll be in the red for years to come.

We make more now to make up for what we lost prior to achieving this position. We make more because of the amount of responsibility. Any other profession wouldn't get on the nightly news and get an all out assault on our personal history when we react to an emergency. Any other profession wouldn't start all over again if their company went out of business.

Comparing what a captain makes in the earning years of their career to other careers is what management does to justify the pay and make it look acceptable. They forget the past... we shouldn't.

Pilotyip is just another management guy that ignores the sacrifice, luck and patience to make it to the top 10% of pay in this country. It surely isn't handed out and it certainly is deserved.

 

[Denizen]

Compare what I make having gone to flight school and the price paid for admission as well as the insulting pay all the way up to what I currently make to what I would have made had I just become a Southwest flight attendant on my first day of flight training. I'll be in the red for years to come.

We make more now to make up for what we lost prior to achieving this position. We make more because of the amount of responsibility. Any other profession wouldn't get on the nightly news and get an all out assault on our personal history when we react to an emergency. Any other profession wouldn't start all over again if their company went out of business.

Comparing what a captain makes in the earning years of their career to other careers is what management does to justify the pay and make it look acceptable. They forget the past... we shouldn't.

Pilotyip is just another management guy that ignores the sacrifice, luck and patience to make it to the top 10% of pay in this country. It surely isn't handed out and it certainly is deserved.

It isn't just the Yipster, it is market forces. Pilots get paid what they are worth. Which is as little as you can get them to work (what little they will do) for.

I am no fan of the face of evil (yip) but but getting pilots to work for almost nothing is easy. Heck you can get them to pay YOU to fly.

 

[labbats]

I understand and agree with you. I just take exception when someone who knows what it takes to become a highly paid pilot treats it like a handout.

Now that the internet tells every aspiring pilot what to expect in terms of recouping their investment in themselves is it any wonder that no one wants to become a pilot anymore? I don't see a pilot shortage for the high paying major jobs but I certainly see a profound shortage of pilots in the regional and part 135 world shortly.

 

[Twisted Mind]

Yip,
Being paid more for doing less is a human nature. It exists out side of the union environment. Just look at CEO pay 400 times the average worker and accelerating.

 

[Denizen]

I understand and agree with you. I just take exception when someone who knows what it takes to become a highly paid pilot treats it like a handout.

Now that the internet tells every aspiring pilot what to expect in terms of recouping their investment in themselves is it any wonder that no one wants to become a pilot anymore? I don't see a pilot shortage for the high paying major jobs but I certainly see a profound shortage of pilots in the regional and part 135 world shortly.

Don't let YIP get to you. The mentality at that airport is to hate everyone who ever has it slightly better than you do, which is just about everyone. If they don't escape the willow run vortex they get really bitter.

 

[pilotyip]

It isn't just the Yipster, it is market forces. Pilots get paid what they are worth. Which is as little as you can get them to work (what little they will do) for.

I am no fan of the face of evil (yip) but but getting pilots to work for almost nothing is easy. Heck you can get them to pay YOU to fly.

Almost a reasonable post that market forces and the pressure to maintain profitability drive pilot wages. Except a little name calling, but hey it is FI. This board is guilty of "group Think" of the underpaid overworked pilot. Anyone who posts the reality outside of that "group think" has to be attacked.

Don't let YIP get to you. The mentality at that airport is to hate everyone who ever has it slightly better than you do, which is just about everyone. If they don't escape the willow run vortex they get really bitter.

Please, I am not bitter, in fact I love what I do. YIP is what you make of it, for a native Michigander who has lived all over the US I kinda like it. No hurricanes, no floods, a couple tornadoes once in while, and ice and snow. However, in Michigan ice and snow is not really a big deal like it is down south, they are equipped to handle it. The season change is something you really enjoy, unlike living in FL. where you go Ho Hum another beautiful day, so what. In Michigan, people call in sick on beautiful days. Flying out of YIP will make you one of the best instrument pilots in the country, YIP ranks up with SEA for the number of IFR days. In YIP you will learn the real meaning of clean airplane, deicing is a way of life you get really good at understanding holdover time. At YIP you will develop flying skills that allow you move onto your career destination, even if you do not care for the area like some guys. It gives them the resume fluff to move to their next job. YIP pilots go to place like UPS, FedEs, DAL, AAL, AT, JB, NJ, SWA, Atlas, you name YIP has send a pilot there. I take great pride in what I have done to help these pilots move on to career positions. We all pay our dues in some way; YIP is only one way. So some other people must have found YIP is an all right place to spend some time. How many major airports are there in the country where you can live 10 minutes from the parking lot on an acre of land for less than 100K? Where else can you still get one dollar fifty drafts at places like the Wedge? As I said at the start YIP is what you make of it, some people say it is OK, others do not like it here and do not apply. Simple choices.

 

[Lear70]

This board is guilty of "group Think" of the underpaid overworked pilot. Anyone who posts the reality outside of that "group think" has to be attacked.

Your view, again, simply doesn't reflect the reality that you are NOT comparing apples to apples when you talk about comparing what we make to the rest of the U.S.

You'd be better off saying, "How does your income and quality of life compare to other people, even without college degrees, who put in 2-3 years of specialized training into their careers, paying for it themselves to the tune of a MINIMUM of $50k and usually closer to $100k+, and spend another 5-7 years of their life making incomes well under $50k a year just to get where they want to be?"

The answer would yield you a comparison to specialized tradesman such as electricians, general contractors, auto mechanics who attended specialized schools (not the guys at your local Shell, but the ones at the Dealership), aircraft mechanics, underwater welders, cruise ship officers, etc.

Most of those make pretty close to $80k-100k plus a year, AND they don't have the added responsibility of hundreds of lives a day in their hands... except the aircraft mechanics and SENIOR cruise ship officers who, arguably, might, but they make about the same thing we do up until the point you upgrade to a Legacy Captain position.

So, in short, you're being disingenuous when you try to compare our income with the income of the average American who never went out and busted their butt to make anything of themselves, but is schlepping their life through in a $10-12 an hour non-specialized office job.

Maybe most people here agree on that and YOU'RE the outside thought for a REASON (aka, your thought process is incorrect). Everyone's out of step but Johnny...??? (you're old enough to remember that one).

And yes, YIP can be good for time-building and moving on, but the other poster's point was that if you never escape, there's usually a reason. Very few, if any, stayed there because they wanted to. I'd submit that, like you, they made management positions and just got comfy. Anyone who isn't management and is still there more than likely isn't there by choice. A few exceptions, but most want to get their time and get out, the lifestyle sucks and if the economy is bad, the pay sucks too.

True story.

 

[pilotyip]

And yes, YIP can be good for time-building and moving on, but the other poster's point was that if you never escape, there's usually a reason. Very few, if any, stayed there because they wanted to. I'd submit that, like you, they made management positions and just got comfy. Anyone who isn't management and is still there more than likely isn't there by choice. A few exceptions, but most want to get their time and get out, the lifestyle sucks and if the economy is bad, the pay sucks too.

True story.

Fair enough, but it is market forces that determine what pilots will be paid. Unless re-reg happens where the CAB has to approve every route and fee schedule, we remain in competitive industry with a consumer who looks for lowest cost. Re-reg would allow airlines to pass costs along in a price fixed industry where pilot costs can be passed along. Life was good for a few pilots under regulation. There are probably 4-5 times as many pilot’s jobs now as there was in 1977. Back in reg time it was about 90% military that went to the majors. Dereg opened up a lot of airline job to non-military pilots. To return to regulation would raise ticket prices, reduce the number of passengers, and therefore reduce the number of pilots needed.

BTW Here is another reason pilots stay at YIP, they are making well in excess of $100K, they are in their mid-50's and will never recoup their drop in income by moving to another airline. Besides half our flying now is scheduled passenger and there is an escape from the 30 minute call out. I also detect a little of the common FI there in your post "I don't work at YIP, therefore I am better than you"

 

[Lear70]

BTW Here is another reason pilots stay at YIP, they are making well in excess of $100K, they are in their mid-50's and will never recoup their drop in income by moving to another airline. Besides half our flying now is scheduled passenger and there is an escape from the 30 minute call out.

You just proved our point. You shouldn't HAVE to take such a huge hit in your income to go work somewhere else. Market forces or not, that playing field could be leveled without increasing the existing size of the "pie".

I also detect a little of the common FI there in your post "I don't work at YIP, therefore I am better than you"

You forget, I *USED* to work at YIP... for almost 3 years, and relatively recently as well.

It's not "I'm better", it's "I moved on and recognize that almost all my coworkers wanted to as well, and many already have." It is what it is... good for building time, good people to work with, and I do feel grateful to have had a place to land at a bad time in my life, but few pilots I ever met think it's a preferable career gig.

 

[fam62c]

If the pay is not good, the lifestyle is no good and the career path is difficult why do people do this? It should be a self-correcting problem under these circumstances, people should either not enter the profession or leave the profession and not come back, the resultant shortage of labor would start to fix the problems. For now at least though there is still an adequate supply of pilots in the USA and most pilots I know who have left the profession to get "normal" jobs return to flying even with all the pitfalls. I know plenty of people in other industries and they have had a tough time in this economy too. I think that more than a few pilots who left flying found out that it's a lot harder to make a decent income doing something else than they thought it would be, especially in a tough economy. Airline pilot experience is of very little value to the folks doing the hiring in other industries.

Things are not perfect and they never will be, there will always be winners and losers in this industry and in many cases luck and timing has a lot to do with where you end up more than any other factor, it's very difficult to see the future when you decide to accept a job. I think if age 65 holds things will be much better for the next generation of pilots than they were for many of us. For now things are the way they are and that's how it is.

 

[livin'thesim]

Steeply scaled longevity pay is probably the single largest roadblock to the self-correcting effect that we would otherwise expect to see.

There is no such thing as a totally free market most of the time. There is always a regulation, law, union rule, preferred market element (such as the jurassic requirement for 20/20 uncorrected vision).

At best, some markets are more free than others. I completely support unionization of pilots, but I am honest enough to recognize that unionization makes the market less free.

I believe that the pros of unionization outweigh the cons, which is my opinion only.

I believe seniority as we practice it now has more advantages than disadvantages.

But steeply scaled longevity pay benefits the few at the expense of the many. It is the single largest change that could feasibly be made.

 

[jonjuan]

Like a nsl, there's no way to change it without affecting the "those who have.". They will fight tooth and nail to keep it as is.
Should someone propose increasing payrates of years 1-5 by 50-100%, those at the top will bitch that the pay raises are coming out of their pockets.

 

[Jetjockey]

There will be a pilot shortage right after the Chicago Cubs win the world series.

Two things I'm convinced I will never see in my lifetime.

 

[fam62c]

Like a nsl, there's no way to change it without affecting the "those who have.". They will fight tooth and nail to keep it as is.
Should someone propose increasing payrates of years 1-5 by 50-100%, those at the top will bitch that the pay raises are coming out of their pockets.

True, airline pay scales have always been more capitalistic than socialistic. The idea has always been that you will be senior longer than you will be junior and everybody will eventually be a senior captain. Unfortunately, with all the airline failures over the years, mergers and furloughs these assumptions are not always valid.

I still believe the thing that will eventually help will be a reduction in the supply of pilots. This will dictate that the airlines that want the most qualified applicants will have to make their entry level compensation more attractive than their peers. It may never happen, we will just have to wait and see. The vast majority of pilots at any airline are not new hires and they will never support taking money from the more senior and giving it to the more junior. Low probationary pay is an unfortunate tradition in this industry that you don't see so much in other professions.

 

[Lear70]

You'd have to phase it in during a period of hiring, when the majority of pilots are >5 years of longevity and you only take from the year 2-5 wages and add it to the 1st year rate.

For instance, when Southwest starts hiring again, there will be no one on Year 5 rates. Everyone there now is on year 2 and getting ready to go to year 3. By the time the integration is done and attrition takes care of the 2-3% overstaffing issue, they'll all be at year 6.

So you take $5 per hour/trip off the Year 2, 3, 4, and 5 pay rates and put it on the Year 1 rate, making it $20 per hour/trip higher than it already is.

If you did this at Delta/United/USAirways hiring, you'd have a net increase of $20 an hour, or approximately $20k more in salary for the first year pilot than the $30-40k they make now, making starting pay at least $50k-60k, going to $65-75k 2nd year, and $2-3k per year increases after that until you hit year 6 pay where it stays on the existing schedule.

There's a way to do it NOW, if unions and management would get together to do it. It increases 1st year pay rates, which increases costs NOW for management, but it equalizes in later years. That's the down-side for management, you don't get that immediate cost savings on new-hires to off-set the cost of running classes, but they recapture it later...

 

[fam62c]

You'd have to phase it in during a period of hiring, when the majority of pilots are >5 years of longevity and you only take from the year 2-5 wages and add it to the 1st year rate.

For instance, when Southwest starts hiring again, there will be no one on Year 5 rates. Everyone there now is on year 2 and getting ready to go to year 3. By the time the integration is done and attrition takes care of the 2-3% overstaffing issue, they'll all be at year 6.

So you take $5 per hour/trip off the Year 2, 3, 4, and 5 pay rates and put it on the Year 1 rate, making it $20 per hour/trip higher than it already is.

If you did this at Delta/United/USAirways hiring, you'd have a net increase of $20 an hour, or approximately $20k more in salary for the first year pilot than the $30-40k they make now, making starting pay at least $50k-60k, going to $65-75k 2nd year, and $2-3k per year increases after that until you hit year 6 pay where it stays on the existing schedule.

There's a way to do it NOW, if unions and management would get together to do it. It increases 1st year pay rates, which increases costs NOW for management, but it equalizes in later years. That's the down-side for management, you don't get that immediate cost savings on new-hires to off-set the cost of running classes, but they recapture it later...

That's a possible solution but as you mentioned there is a potential negative for management which means some amount of negotiating capital must be expended on the part of the union to get it done, that's always true of anything the union wants even if the cost to the company is zero. So the question becomes; will the membership support expending negotiating capital on an issue that doesn't help the people already on the property but benefits the "unborn?" I don't know the answer to that question but I can make an educated guess based on historical precedent

 

[pilotyip]

Like a nsl, there's no way to change it without affecting the "those who have.". They will fight tooth and nail to keep it as is.
Should someone propose increasing payrates of years 1-5 by 50-100%, those at the top will bitch that the pay raises are coming out of their pockets.

ah! the beauty of the brotherhood, majority rules