So..the pilot shortage is coming?

[JokerFuel]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

 

[Redtailer]

Just curious, what is your source that gives you the impression Delta will be furloughing?

 

[General Lee]

Heard nothing about Delta furloughing. Nope. Like Redtailer asks, where are you coming up with this stuff?


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Question4U]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

They both have alot of retirements coming up. I can't see that happening.

 

[Lear70]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

 

[Whine Lover]

Well said Lear....and, while we are at it let's add this tidbit of reality:

THERE
NEVER
HAS
BEEN
NOR,
WILL
THERE
EVER
BE
A
"BIG ANNOUNCEMENT"
AT
ANY
AIRLINE


EVER.






YKW

 

[fam62c]

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

I agree but it depends on how you define shortage. Assuming the retirement age doesn't get pushed beyond age 65 (I think that it will at some point which changes everything) at some point you will see the large carriers starting to have to compete for the most qualified applicants and the days of candidates having multiple job offers will return in a few years. I don't think we will see much action in 2013 and maybe even 2014 because there are guys on the street that need to be absorbed but after that things should start to pick up.

If you define a pilot shortage as the top level employers (best pay, benefits and career progression) running out of applicants that meet their minimum requirements that is possible but unlikely anytime soon. The shortage will hit the regionals, charter companies, flight schools, bad part 91 operators/fractionals and "stepping stone" jet carriers first. The top of the food chain will be fine I think. It's easy to be pessimistic because of all the bad stuff we've seen recently in this industry but hiring can go from bad to good (or good to bad as we've seen) very quickly. The age 65 retirement numbers are convincing assuming that doesn't change and there is no economic meltdown that shrinks the industry. I think that new, young pilots just getting their qualifications now will have a much better and faster career path than those of us who starter 20 years ago and hit the gulf wars, 9-11, age 65, great recession and pretty much every other industry setback. BTW, one thing I've learned from life is never say never

 

[fam62c]

Well said Lear....and, while we are at it let's add this tidbit of reality:

THERE
NEVER
HAS
BEEN
NOR,
WILL
THERE
EVER
BE
A
"BIG ANNOUNCEMENT"
AT
ANY
AIRLINE


EVER.






YKW

But the rumor of such announcement will be ever-present

 

[HelloNewman]

There will not be a shortage anywhere. Plenty of people want to work at the majors and honestly with a glut of 50 seaters out there regionals are next to see consolidation. If there are not enough applicants at the regional level then more 50 seaters will be retired and simply not be replaced. Regionals will shrink and be full of senior lifers that keep hanging on to the titanic that is the contract business. Oh sure some companies will be left standing but my guess is comair is just the tip of the iceburg. Those people that live in places like springfield, il will simply have to drive to chicago if they want to fly.

 

[JECKEL]

US Airways is interviewing right now.
They hired 50 in the Spring, 40 this Summer and are planning to hire 70 this Fall.
Next year US Airways has plans to hire 300 pilots.

 

[Redtailer]

Wherever you get your information from it is really, really bad. Just 3 months ago RA stated in a check airmen meeting that DL will be hiring early 2013. That was reiterated on the bid that was just posted so someone is on something good saying DL is furloughing.

As for a shortage, it's like most everyone here already said. The majors will not feel the pinch of a shortage. In fact it is even more competitive because guys have been stuck in the regionals longer giving them higher qualifications.

Even my worst days at a major beat my best days at a regional there is just no comparison. So there will always be competition for those jobs.

Regional level flying however is a whole other thing. If someone told you that you were going to be stuck at a regional for at least 5 years coming in to this and still no gurantee of a major job, would you do it? With the new rgs coming in to place next year it will be an interesting market for sure.

 

[Tanker Clown]

I've been hearing that Delta is going to furlough as well. That is unless the pilots give concessions. If they give up more scope, pay, and work rules they just might not furlough. Although they probably will anyway.

 

[Redtailer]

I've been hearing that Delta is going to furlough as well. That is unless the pilots give concessions. If they give up more scope, pay, and work rules they just might not furlough. Although they probably will anyway.

Whoever you guys are listening to I suggest you stop. Immediately.

You do know DL pilots just ratified a new agreement that went in to effect Jul 1 right? There was a 12% pay increase in the first year and overall the scope was tightened not to mention all of the other things that are triggered with scope, block hours and schedules with a furlough.

All of that aside did you not notice DL is adding aircraft to the fleet for a net gain of hulls? They are taking all of AirTrns 717s and have 737-900 arriving in a few months. Yep they will furlough.

Guys please do your homework opposed to just repeating crap.

 

[Tanker Clown]

I know Red. That didn't last long did it? Oh well, didn't Delta get a fat new contract right before they furloughed in 2001? The concessions will, of course, come first though.

 

[Lear70]

Don't feed the troll...

 

[DeucesWild]

Whoever you guys are listening to I suggest you stop. Immediately.

You do know DL pilots just ratified a new agreement that went in to effect Jul 1 right? There was a 12% pay increase in the first year and overall the scope was tightened not to mention all of the other things that are triggered with scope, block hours and schedules with a furlough.

All of that aside did you not notice DL is adding aircraft to the fleet for a net gain of hulls? They are taking all of AirTrns 717s and have 737-900 arriving in a few months. Yep they will furlough.

Guys please do your homework opposed to just repeating crap.

Hook, line, and sinker....

Tanker - you always manage to evoke a chuckle from me (one of the reasons I stop by FI now and then)!

 

[Redtailer]

Don't feed the troll...

Yep, you right... I'm done..

 

[waveflyer]

I'd beg to differ on the scope "tightening" but im pretty sure everyone knows what I think of that

 

[xjhawk]

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

Replace the red highlighted area with "The majors will be taking young inexperienced pilots that HR is looking to meet its quota or who have great internal recommendations". Or "the majors will be excluding any with too much experience (rumor about Delta's Airapps will not even look at your resume if you have over 7500 hours) or is too old as HR has done studies about the great abilities and trainability of those right out of flight school"

Yeah, this is a hook line and sinker thread, quite enjoyable to read. But the truth of the matter is that there are what, an expected 10,000 mainline jobs coming in the next ten years? Great, there just happens to be 20,000 regional pilots. And with Comair (Delta) putting 600 out on the street and you can look at Pinnacle and see there will be about another 1000 more by 2015 there will be a lot more applicants for those jobs. I love how the majors will lower their hiring minimums to hire the inexperienced but will not over look the lack of currency for those who have lost their jobs.

If you are at a major, why not ask why your HR departments are not taking the best most qualified, but are just lowering the bar in order to get the "ones they want"

 

[JokerFuel]

I honestly wasn't trying to start any rumours. A friend of mine is a very senior Delta captain. It must have been speculation, or I misunderstood. So I guess that's me...starting rumours. Apologies gents. The best to us all.