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Who'll be the first to furlough again?

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Most likely.....AAG....historically they furlough right after big profit....keeps the believers in line......
 
Swa

I'm sure it will be Southwest. We don't have enough capital, credit or leverage. We don't have a strong presence in enough cites. We don't have adequate hedges. Our management hates us and we hate them as well. They'll do like they've done in the past and furlough employees, especially pilots as soon as there is any kind of glitch in the economy or the price of oil. SWA doesn't prepare for the bad times as well as the other major airlines. That's why we've had so many losing quarters, unprofitable years and furloughs. Man, this place is a real $hit hole.

At least that's the picture SOME of the Airtran guys are painting for me on the other threads

:)
 
Where do you get your demographics????

Low Cost Carriers will be effected first (Not SWA-they are not low cost) NKS, Virgin America, etc, will be the first effected. LCC is short on cash, but has some of the most retirements in the next five years.

In reality if the Fed raises interest rates, and the Middle East does not implode, we should see oil go down by at least 30%.

Most LCCs have not been in business that long. For the most part they have a younger work force. Where are the retirement for the LCCs?
 
If oil doesnt back off in a couple of weeks, all the airlines will furlough in mass!

I'll make sure to be elsewhere on Sunday mornings then!!!

Perhaps you meant "en masse"??

I'm just joking around, I'm not really the resident grammar nazi.

In any case, I disagree. I think most of the majors are well equipped to weather a summer of high oil prices and you will not see any furloughs unless oil tops $150 a barrel.
 
I'm sure it will be Southwest. We don't have enough capital, credit or leverage. We don't have a strong presence in enough cites. We don't have adequate hedges. Our management hates us and we hate them as well. They'll do like they've done in the past and furlough employees, especially pilots as soon as there is any kind of glitch in the economy or the price of oil. SWA doesn't prepare for the bad times as well as the other major airlines. That's why we've had so many losing quarters, unprofitable years and furloughs. Man, this place is a real $hit hole.

At least that's the picture SOME of the Airtran guys are painting for me on the other threads

:)


You are correct according to this article. Sounds like GK MIGHT be a bit worried about Airtran's lack of hedging. Could he be a bit dramatic to help his cause? Maybe. Maybe that Senator should ask GK about Guadalupe Holdings or whatever....


Southwest CEO: AirTran Deal 'Imperative' To Counter Fuel Spike

PEWAUKEE, Wis. (Dow Jones)--The head of Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) said Friday it is "absolutely imperative" the company completes its planned merger with AirTran Holdings Inc. (AAI) as a hedge against soaring jet fuel costs.
Gary Kelly, chairman, president and chief executive of Dallas-based Southwest, said both carriers could be forced to shrink without a deal the companies aim to close in the second quarter of this year.

Kelly's comments came during testimony before the Senate Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights subcommittee.

The Justice Department in November made a second request for information on the planned deal that would expand Southwest's domestic capacity by more than a fifth and provide entry to key markets such as Atlanta for the first time.
The proposed deal has attracted little opposition from rivals and lawmakers compared with recent consolidation in the U.S. industry.

The field hearing was called by Sen. Herb Kohl (D., Wis.), who in his opening remarks planned to question the potential impact of the deal on competition from Milwaukee's Mitchell Airport. Southwest and AirTran would have a combined 39% share at the airport. The experience of other airline mergers in recent years gives us reason for caution," said Kohl. Of the Southwest/AirTran deal he said: "I get the feeling that there are goods and bads to it."

Kelly said the enlarged airline would provide "Milwaukee-area customers with access to an even stronger and nationwide low-fare, low-cost carrier network."
He declined to provide Sen. Kohl with a guarantee that Southwest would maintain the airlines' combined capacity at Milwaukee after the deal closes, citing the uncertainty created by fuel prices. "We want to grow...but we have to do that in a fiscally responsible way," he said. Diana Moss, vice president of the American Antitrust Institute, called AirTran a "maverick" and said there was a risk of fares rising and capacity cuts. "It is clear that AirTran is an aggressive discounter relative to Southwest," she said. "Fares could edge higher and rivalry diminish."

Kelly said Southwest was unlikely to maintain AirTran's crew base--of 70 to 90 pilots--in Milwaukee after a merger, though he expected the number of airport staff to expand as it worked to boost frequencies. He also said Southwest has yet to determine the fate of AirTran's code share deal with Skywest Airlines Inc. (SKYW). Southwest's pilots' contract precludes domestic code sharing.



Bye Bye---General Lee
 
Is that a for sure thing in Aug?...or just planning.

The law congress passed after the Buffalo crash required the new rules to be published by August. The FAA seems to be doing their best to screw that particular pooch.

I would imagine some type of phase in period but definitely by 2012, the rules will be binding on 121 carriers. I would also expect 135 to get theirs shortly after that.
 
Last edited:
You are correct according to this article. Sounds like GK MIGHT be a bit worried about Airtran's lack of hedging. Could he be a bit dramatic to help his cause? Maybe. Maybe that Senator should ask GK about Guadalupe Holdings or whatever....

No GL, that's simply GK posturing in public. Now, when he says something like "massive growth" post merger, THEN he really means it. LOL....
 
G-Lee
You're late to the party. We've been hammering that thread out for over a weak. Time to put down the pork rinds and Yoo-Hoo.

:D
 
The law congress passed after the Buffalo crash required the new rules to be published by August. The FAA seems to be doing their best to screw that particular pooch

Why does everyone jump to blame the FAA? Go research our nation's process for issuing rules and laws. It takes time and due process. No one wants a government to be able to just bestow a rule upon us, but then everyone complains when it goes through the process.

During the comment period, EVERY comment must be adjudicated by the FAA. After that, OMB gets it for as long as it takes them to do the economic analysis. Then off to DoT OSC for legal.

Many of the FAA Inspectors working on this rule are retired airline and military pilots who know it's an issue. Believe me, they're trying to get this through as quickly as possible. The system is holding it up, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. It considers all of our interests.

~AD
 
Why does everyone jump to blame the FAA? Go research our nation's process for issuing rules and laws. It takes time and due process. No one wants a government to be able to just bestow a rule upon us, but then everyone complains when it goes through the process.

During the comment period, EVERY comment must be adjudicated by the FAA. After that, OMB gets it for as long as it takes them to do the economic analysis. Then off to DoT OSC for legal.

Many of the FAA Inspectors working on this rule are retired airline and military pilots who know it's an issue. Believe me, they're trying to get this through as quickly as possible. The system is holding it up, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. It considers all of our interests.

~AD

Funny...the age 60 rule change didn't take nearly this long.
 
Originally Posted by contrail67
Is that a for sure thing in Aug?...or just planning.

The law congress passed after the Buffalo crash required the new rules to be published by August. The FAA seems to be doing their best to screw that particular pooch.

I would imagine some type of phase in period but definitely by 2012, the rules will be binding on 121 carriers. I would also expect 135 to get theirs shortly after that.
Congress passed a law requiring the rules to be IN EFFECT prior to 1 Aug. I read a poster that said Jun....other than that one post I have heard nothing about when the rules take effect....I am guessing 31 Jul.

Funny...the age 60 rule change didn't take nearly this long.
That's because CONGRESS changed the Age 65 rule. It was simple: Change 60-->65.

In the case of these Flight/Duty/Rest rules, it is quite complicated, which is why Congress gave the FAA the authority to come up with the specifics. BUT, they were fed up with the FAA's stalling (surprised!), and so gave them the 1 Aug date.

Many aviation groups asked the FAA to prolong the comment period and/or delay the process, and the FAA said NO! to all requests of that nature.

cliff
ANC
 
So what happens if the FAA does not issue the rules in time? Do they get a time out?
 
What are you talking about? Pilots had been working to change the Age 60 rules for decades, only to be told if ALPA didn't support it, then neither would Congress. In fact, it wasn't until a cabal of junior pilots began to take over ALPA in the 1980's that their opposition to changing the rule started.

Finally the rule was changed and look, the world didn't come to an end and jets didn't begin falling from the skies at the hands of geriatric pilots.

If pilots stopped constantly defending the indefensible perhaps they would have the credibility to influence the really important things that matter.
 

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