American Eagle ..HIRING....

[atpcliff]

Hi!

2010 getting 7 new CRJ-700s, so that's 70 pilots just for those seats.

Will DAL be hiring in 2010? If so, then a certain number of Eagle guys will leave for DAL, or to fill spots at other airlines whose guys have left for the DAL spots. Same goes for Atlas, Evergreen, Omni, etc., etc. Some newer Eagle guys may also go to Compass.

Will the Flight/Duty/Rest rules change in 2010? Probably. If so, basically ALL US airlines will have to hire/recall to fill the new pilots needed, so there will be a lot of movement, as some Eagle guys will move up, and Eagle will need more guys to fill their new requirements.

Many foreign airlines are increasing their hiring now. How many Eagle guys will leave to go overseas? How many will move up, as guys at "better" airlines leave to go overseas?

2011? How many new pilots will be needed? How many new airframes will Eagle get? How much hiring will be done industry-wide that affects Eagle.

2012. The floodgates will open, as the 5 year halt to age-related retirements will end, and LOTS of guys will need to be replaced.

Another economic downturn? Big terrorist attack? Massive environmental tragedy? Any of these could negatively affect hiring/upgrades at Eagle.

There are many, many factors that affect upgrades/hiring/the health of the industry, and it is very difficult to predict.

The last few years have been among the worst for hiring in Aviation, so chances are things will improve a LOT! A 10 year upgrade at Eagle is what is current. New hires will have a massively different scenario that will affect their upgrades, probably very positively.

cliff
GRB

 

[CX880]

There are many, many factors that affect upgrades/hiring/the health of the industry, and it is very difficult to predict.

The last few years have been among the worst for hiring in Aviation, so chances are things will improve a LOT! A 10 year upgrade at Eagle is what is current. New hires will have a massively different scenario that will affect their upgrades, probably very positively.

cliff
GRB

The only way to upgrade is when one of two things happen:

1. Attrition, it's simply your time. Again almost 3000 pilots, equals to decade or more upgrades.

2. You get more airplanes. Ok they got more CRJs for this year, do you think they'll get any more ERJs? ATRs? And more importantly for who? AMR is up in a few years.

At the peak of the false economy eagle upgrades were at 7 years, at the least.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The third thing that affects upgrades is when the regs change.

The Age 65 change in 2007 stopped many guys from having to retire, and the rule will cause retirements to start again in 2012, and there are a TON of guys over age 60 in the airline industry that are pilots.

When the Flight/Duty/Rest rules change, more pilots will be required. Many airlines, if not all of them, are planning on hiring more pilots, if/when the rules change.

There are also many furloughed guys in the US, and as the recalls increase in momentum, it will lead to a cascade of hiring.

cliff
GRB

 

[BushwickBill]

I had wrongly assumed that hiring minimums would be much higher because of 3407 legislation.

So I was curious what regional airlines would do to attract people who had a lot more flight time than the last round of 300 hour wunderpilots. Would regional airlines Increase pay? Improve work rules? Respect for fatigue? I wanted things to get better for you guys.

Well there was no legislation. So I'm guessing minimums will start at 1000TT and then slowly weaken to meet demand.

That is the only way to fill a position with such a low wage and poor quality of life.

 

[DGdaPilot]

Do the math. Almost 3000 pilots, 100 new pilots a year if that. AT LEAST 10 years.

I guess you don't realize that there is a hiring gap at Eagle between 2001 and 2004. The FO's that were hired before that gap are approaching upgrade. This will drop upgrades 3 to 4 years overnight.

And by the way, Eagle only has about 2400 active pilots now.

 

[Flyby1206]

K guys, here are some real numbers to solve the arguement:

In the next 10 years AE will retire 256 pilots(not all of them are CAs) due to Age 65. That is 25 pilots/yr on avg.

JR CA is 8/21/00 DOH (9.5yrs)

203 FOs between JR CA and 1st 2004 DOH. (the infamous hiring gap)

170 Eagle FOs with 2004 DOHs

So how long will it take to go through 203 FOs to hit those 2004 DOHs?

How long will it take to go through all 170 of the 2004 DOHs?


My personal guess would be at least 2 yrs from now to hit those first 1/1/2004 guys (They would be on yr 8 seniority by then)

Another 1-2yrs to go through all the 2004 DOHs would keep the upgrades around 7-8yrs for the forseeable future.

I really doubt AE will grow (a net increase of airframes), and we have contract negotiations in 2012 so I am sure that will continue to stagnate things for a while. The only ray of sunshine would come from some sort of flowthrough resolution AND a growth at mainline to take the Eagle FTs.... Lots of big IFs. As previously stated, hiring booms havent had much effect on our upgrades because why would a 15-20yr AE CA want to leave their $100k seat to start over at DAL, Compass, JB, etc (it does effect some of the most junior FOs, but the senior FOs hold out at AE for the upgrade)

 

[DGdaPilot]

K guys, here are some real numbers to solve the arguement:

In the next 10 years AE will retire 256 pilots(not all of them are CAs) due to Age 65. That is 25 pilots/yr on avg.

JR CA is 8/21/00 DOH (9.5yrs)

203 FOs between JR CA and 1st 2004 DOH. (the infamous hiring gap)

170 Eagle FOs with 2004 DOHs

So how long will it take to go through 203 FOs to hit those 2004 DOHs?

How long will it take to go through all 170 of the 2004 DOHs?


My personal guess would be at least 2 yrs from now to hit those first 1/1/2004 guys (They would be on yr 8 seniority by then)

Another 1-2yrs to go through all the 2004 DOHs would keep the upgrades around 7-8yrs for the forseeable future.

I really doubt AE will grow (a net increase of airframes), and we have contract negotiations in 2012 so I am sure that will continue to stagnate things for a while. The only ray of sunshine would come from some sort of flowthrough resolution AND a growth at mainline to take the Eagle FTs.... Lots of big IFs. As previously stated, hiring booms havent had much effect on our upgrades because why would a 15-20yr AE CA want to leave their $100k seat to start over at DAL, Compass, JB, etc (it does effect some of the most junior FOs, but the senior FOs hold out at AE for the upgrade)

Good work on the numbers. Also remember that we have a win on this latest arbitration and it is a final ruling. Hopefully the implemenation by the arbitrator will lube the pipes.

 

[no1pilot2000]

Ladies and gentleman, welcome to tonights main even.

In this corner, weighing in at 150 pounds, in the red and silver trunks, from whereabouts unknown, is American Airlines.

And in the other corner, weighing in at 151 pounds, in the red and white trunks, from who knows where, is American Eagle.

Gentlemen, when the bell rings, come out, tap gloves, and start your turbines.

Ding....Ding.....

 

[CX880]

I had wrongly assumed that hiring minimums would be much higher because of 3407 legislation.

So I was curious what regional airlines would do to attract people who had a lot more flight time than the last round of 300 hour wunderpilots. Would regional airlines Increase pay? Improve work rules? Respect for fatigue? I wanted things to get better for you guys.

Well there was no legislation. So I'm guessing minimums will start at 1000TT and then slowly weaken to meet demand.

That is the only way to fill a position with such a low wage and poor quality of life.

Thats like the 6th time youve mentioned 3407 and 1500 hours legislation, are you ok? Do you only have 1400 hours?

 

[Lynxman]

He's 135 PIC so I'm sure he's met the times. He merely believes that the 1500 rule is a good idea, but too someone hired with 300 hours you wouldn't like that.