It be more intelligent than striking a weak company (run a union buster) in the worst economy since the great depression.
Except that we have no idea how weak or strong NK is doing. Planes are still filled while fuel is down. The capacity cut (of 20%) must have resulted in additional savings. Most companies are reporting 10-15% decrease in traffic. We should have a +5% balance due to our 20% capacity cut. And that is assuming NK has experienced the same drop the legacy carries have experienced. Fuel cost speaks for itself. All that should have resulted in significant cost savings that should eventually lead to growth unless there is further drop in traffic. It is also a fact that they were looking for airplanes. Allegiant, while a different animal, posted record operating margins. Airtran has said it was expecting profits for this year. But that is just guessing. We will see the real numbers coming from the industry I believe this week. Only then can you say how bad the sector has been doing in Q1 and make some speculation about NK. Until then we simply do not know.
But this is not why your post was unintelligent. Your comment was unintelligent not because it is debatable whether we should strike now or later, but because the strike is already on its way and it is going to pass. What is debatable is whether it will be a strong or a weak vote and it makes a huge difference and that in fact has nothing to do with how many pilots (including myself) are on the street at this moment. Of course you could argue that the vote will indeed not pass and this is why you are voting against it. In that case I'd understand your position. Is that what you are arguing? I don't think so.
3 outcomes of this vote:
1. high pass (85-100% votes yes)
2. low pass (51-84% votes yes)
3. fail (0-50% votes yes)
Effect on pilots:
1. Good (It will yield a good position for the MEC to negotiate a good TA fairly soon because they can argue that their pilots are ready for a change and want significant improvements. They can present their “high YES” vote to support their position.)
2. Bad (It will put the union into a low leverage position and the argument is in favor of management because they will argue that a fairly weak TA is enough to pass because most pilot are even happy with the current CBA. This will result in a TA that has very little improvement.)
3. Debatable (Subjective because you would argue this is good especially so if you are against current MEC. I would argue it is bad because I am afraid of the effect on morale, unity, and the time it will take to get another CBA will undoubtedly be extended. I am also not interested in a better or different MEC because I doubt that will make a major difference and I have no emotional ties to the old or the current MEC.)
So what is the likelihood of each scenario to happen? We have no scientific polls to go by but my gut feeling is that it will definitely pass. However I am starting to be afraid of a low pass. Unless you are certain of a NO outcome it makes no sense to vote NO. And that is regardless of the state of the economy, now that the vote is on it’s way. A NO vote by a small margin (+15%) of pilots is the absolutely the worst outcome we could have. I think this is beyond argument. This is the scenario exactly where the company wants us to be. They will be able to play the "bad economy card" + "low strike support" combined and force the MEC into a substandard TA.
A failed strike vote would result in status quo. Would status quo be better for the company? No it would not be because they know the “bad economy” card can only be played for so long. In addition it is in their interest to go into a growth phase with a CBA especially if they do want to go public within the next couple of years. So if you vote NO, knowing the vote will probably pass, you are playing into the hands of the company. Vote NO only if you are certain the vote will fail.
I too have said the strike was not timed properly. Unfortunately that is now behind us and unchangeable so don't bring the weak economy argument to the table since it has no relevance anymore.