Revised DAL Biz Plan?

[Fly4hire]

I heard that DAL will be presenting a revised biz plan on 12 June - I'm reasonably sure it's not going to be in the growth category. No announced or pending (we know of) changes to NWA plan other than the already announced cuts.

This will put an interesting twist on merger planning.

While the exec's have been touting the 1+1=3 synergy garbage, I think this merger will really be 1+1=1.5 from the employees perspective.

The only question left IMO is where that 0.5 is going to come from. I know where Moak would like to see it come from, however with a revised DAL plan, we might be seeing both carriers making further cuts before any SLI.

Good luck to my future in-laws at DAL, and I hope that any change in biz plan results in cuts in RJ's and not mainline with furloughs.

 

[jester757]

Yeah not to sure what will happen post summer flying. I have heard some big cuts in the works as far as the whole RJ thing goes. I guess we will know soon enough.

And now tanker clown can chime his useless two cents in about how DAL lost one trillion dollars this quarter.

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas F4H,

Man, you get up WAY to early on a day off!

Me? Crack o' noon, baby!

Nu

 

[ACL65PILOT]

This could go two ways.
1) We could see an announcement for 737's and a ton of 777LR's. Boeing as well as Airbus came out a few weeks ago with their studies on the future of the narrow body market. The both basically stated that there is no was that a E version of either the 737 or 320 will be around until 2018 at the earliest. From the article it states that the composite and component technology is no where close to where it needs to be for a high frequency narrow body aircraft. This basically means that with oil where it is, the DC-9's and 88 need to have something to bridge the gap. If you want to see the article, it is in AWST May 19,2008 publication. It is a good article. It also discusses the GTF and their concerns with it.
2) We will make the similar cuts that AMR and UAL are making. That would be another 8%. It differs from what we are hearing regarding hiring here, but that can change in a moments notice. It kid of sucks to watch the walls burning down around you, but it is what it is.
Needless to say, I have updated my resume and it is on standby. As soon as we starting offering Voluntary LOA's I think that is the time to punch out. Hopefully it will never come to this.

 

[Fly4hire]

This could go two ways.

If you are not making money due to economic conditions you have to minimize losses until conditions improve, not expand money losing operations.

Has DAL been making or losing money?

The NWA merger is a piggy bank they want to suck dry to help weather the storm, however the costs of the merger itself may become self defeating to the gains realized in the changing climate.

Hearing rumblings the whole merger may in fact be in jeopardy.

 

[wings421]

Where did you read about a revised business plan on the 12th?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Has DAL been making or losing money?

The NWA merger is a piggy bank they want to suck dry to help weather the storm, however the costs of the merger itself may become self defeating to the gains realized in the changing climate.

Hearing rumblings the whole merger may in fact be in jeopardy.

Just wondering if there is currently any "watchdog" group within NWA to ensure that the $$$ is not currently being siphoned out of NWA, prior to merger approval (or not) decision. I agree too, tht NWA seems to be the one with the real stand alone ability (as much as that means in this awful economic climate)...but is ANYONE watching to ensure that the piggy bank isn't being sucked dry ahead of time? --Especially considering that Steenland doesn't seem to be interested in running one of the only airlines that is financially stable (in comparison)?

 

[Jmoney]

"Goodwill writeoff"

-If you want to see how screwed up DAL is getting to be, just look at my eplanation of "goodwill writeoffs" under the "Parking EMB145s" thread on that General Lee started.....

Anyone who isn't worried should be. This mgmt is not nearly as awesome an the general constantly claims.

 

[~~~^~~~]

If you are not making money due to economic conditions you have to minimize losses until conditions improve, not expand money losing operations.

Has DAL been making or losing money?

The NWA merger is a piggy bank they want to suck dry ....

Hearing rumblings the whole merger may in fact be in jeopardy.

You are being far too simplistic.

Delta's international operations have done well. Delta's domestic operations have been challenging. Delta expands what works and tries to fix what doesn't. If you look at trends, Delta's international revenues, block hours and load factor have all been trending higher. As long as these trends continue it suggests there is still growth to be had.

NWA's managers certainly want a suck on the NWA piggy bank. Delta's managers may have to use some capital expenditures to re-new NWA's fleet.

NWA's trends are disturbing. Your hub O&D markets are shrinking.

Delta has what NWA needs and NWA has what Delta can use to expand.

We hear the merger is going forward and is more compelling with higher fuel costs. There is low hanging fruit at NWA in low fleet utilization and scheduling inefficiencies that might be optimized in a larger network.

There are 30 phantom 737 orders that were recently placed. Other airplanes are becoming available and maybe Boeing is getting right on the price rather than risking filling Seattle with white tails.

I've got no idea what the announcement might be, but it is close to the date management will respond to ALPA's joint contract Christmas list. A little carrot and stick would be standard procedure.

 

[On Your Six]

"Goodwill writeoff"

-If you want to see how screwed up DAL is getting to be, just look at my eplanation of "goodwill writeoffs" under the "Parking EMB145s" thread on that General Lee started.....

Anyone who isn't worried should be. This mgmt is not nearly as awesome an the general constantly claims.

Thanks for contributing to this discussion. Very insightful comments...

 

[nwaredtail]

NWA's trends are disturbing. Your hub O&D markets are shrinking.

Please show us the numbers that you are talking about and then compare them to DAL's please. Just because you say it, doesn't mean it's remotely true. Pretty sure NWA has lead the legacy carriers in every major financial category since we left BK, thus DAL begging to merge with us.

 

[~~~^~~~]

NWA - Use the search feature. I've posted the stats from DAL and NWA's quarterly reports, spcifically their load factors in light of capacity changes.

Also look at long term demographic patterns.

The exception is Seattle.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Fins,

Since it looks like our careers are going to be tied to mother D, I hope the rapid intl expansion does not turn out like Braniff. Rapid intl expansion which included employees who felt they were taking over the world followed by liqudation. I am sure I will be corrected on why this can't/won't happen to dal(better mgmt, employees who love their company, too big etc, etc) but the similarities of then and now are eerily familiar. High oil, recession, country in massive debt, etc. Hope I am wrong.

NWA - I'm fatigued. I posted these months ago. You use the search feature. I'm tired of posting statistics just to have inane responses, then repeating the research a month later. Start with the NWA and DAL 3rd and 4th quarter numbers, revenue, block hours and load factor.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Cobra:

Revenues have exceeded the costs of generating those revenues in these new markets and Delta has the advantage of being a first mover on many of these opportunities. Profitability with increasing load factors on these routes are positive indicators that additional growth is sustainable.

Some markets have not met this profitability test and have been culled. BUC for example.

I do not think Delta has any interest in growing into money losing routes.

 

[Superpilot92]

Cobra:

Revenues have exceeded the costs of generating those revenues in these new markets and Delta has the advantage of being a first mover on many of these opportunities. Profitability with increasing load factors on these routes are positive indicators that additional growth is sustainable.

Some markets have not met this profitability test and have been culled. BUC for example.

Again - folks, please just read your own Company's publications.

Before you go off saying NWA info is disturbing and we should read our own publications, realize you have disturbing info put out by your company also. My point is dont just point fingers in our direction unless you are pointing them at yourself also. This is an opportunity for both companies to manage the storm thats coming up. Example:

Industry Issues ​

[FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman]1. I thought Delta’s standalone plan was sound. Why do we "need" to merge now? [/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman]Delta does have a standalone plan that will leave better positioned than most carriers in the industry. However, this plan will most likely be unable to generate the cash flow that Delta will need to repay the secured debt leftover from the post-9/11 borrowing binge, fund their fleet growth for international expansion, and still continue to fund the improvements in pay, working conditions, and retirement that we will expect into the future.This merger will allow Delta to complete their plans for international expansion much sooner than a standalone plan will. This international expansion, along with our Joint Venture with Air France/KLM will give Delta the revenue diversification and the global reach that will ensure our company becomes a dominant player in a rapidly changing industry. [/FONT]​