Revised DAL Biz Plan?

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Hey Fins....do you mean the same JP Morgan guys who later issued this update?

Just wondering.....

Why, yes. Those are the same analysts.

NWA's balance sheet and liquidity are currently high but liquidity options are limited under a scenario (not our base case) where Delta walks away from the merger table or the government blocks a deal later this year.

...and here's to hope.

NWA does not bring the cash to the table to replace their fleet. If this merger happens a bunch of NWA pilots are going to be displacing Delta pilots off of Delta jets.

Since the NWA guys are all about one contract and one list - why don't we name the new airline - United?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I am sure that they will displace us and that is their right with the seniority that they will gain in the SLI. It is what it is. I hope for all of our sakes that the SLI is fair from top to bottom. We all have a different point of view on what fair is.
If oil stays where it is, there will be a lot of seat changes coming our way. It is a big IF. I looks as it is making its slow retreat, but you never know with those hedge fund investors.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Superpilot:

I responded to a NWA pilot who specifically asked about DC9 v/s 757 numbers and I commented on how that wasn't a fair comparison, that a 757 can't be beat and that NWA's 757-300 was THE BEST....

you blast away....

I commented that I thought JP Morgan's analysts were too harsh on NWA

you blast away....

What gives?

BTW - Back when Delta ordered their 757's their PR said it was intended to be a 727 AND a DC-9 replacement. Delta was the DC9's launch customer.

 

[~~~^~~~]

I am sure that they will displace us and that is their right with the seniority that they will gain in the SLI. It is what it is. I hope for all of our sakes that the SLI is fair from top to bottom. We all have a different point of view on what fair is.

Displacing Delta pilots when DC9's are parked and back filled with Compass and Pinnacle is fair? Why isn't status quo fair? Is it "unfair" that you hold what you have now?

We do not know the fleet plan going forward. Guess there is no point getting too excited before we learn whether the DC9's will be replaced with 737-700's.

In the past all the backfill has been with RJ's and the RJ operators have the cash to fund new jets. Maybe this time will be different. Depends on whether those junior Captains are awake now and let their MEC know their thoughts on Section 1.

ACL >> Did you read Anderson's update? He basically said the revisions to Delta's business plan were already announced, that we were first in announcing capacity reductions. It appears to me the reports from the Shareholder's meeting were taken out of context by the press.

As always, it remains a dynamic situation.

Steenland's comments about DAL & NWA being smaller are probably true. Steenland might say what we do not want to hear, but his outspoken nature might reflect his honesty about the effect of the merger.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Fin;
You also need to see what our President stated. He basically said that we are open to capacity cuts in the domestic market as well. What surprised me was that he stated that they would be less than previously announced. I was guessing about another 7-8%. If what he states holds true we are looking at 4%. Not much given it is during a winter schedule.
Also of note he stated Domestic and not system. That means that we may announce more international growth.

On the SLI issue. It is quite complicated. I think both sides positions have shown that. We want what we want. I thought that a ratio was fair even before this thing started to heat up. (About two years ago). Now the NWA pilot group wants credit for retirements. It really depends on where our starting point is in arbitration. I do not want to see it come to that, but you never know.
Of note is that there seems to be progress being made on this The rock throwing has disappeared. That gives me true hope that this thing may get done sooner than later. Hopefully with both sides being mildly upset. That would indicate that it was done correctly.

 

[MJ42]

Superpilot:

I responded to a NWA pilot who specifically asked about DC9 v/s 757 numbers and I commented on how that wasn't a fair comparison, that a 757 can't be beat and that NWA's 757-300 was THE BEST....Unfortunately I was not too clear in my post but superpilot read my mind and clarified my intended meaning.



BTW - Back when Delta ordered their 757's their PR said it was intended to be a 727 AND a DC-9 replacement. Delta was the DC9's launch customer.

Key words..."back when Delta". That was then, oh how times have changed.

 

[DTW320]

Why, yes. Those are the same analysts.
...and here's to hope.

NWA does not bring the cash to the table to replace their fleet. If this merger happens a bunch of NWA pilots are going to be displacing Delta pilots off of Delta jets.

Since the NWA guys are all about one contract and one list - why don't we name the new airline - United?

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

 

[Superpilot92]

Superpilot:

I responded to a NWA pilot who specifically asked about DC9 v/s 757 numbers and I commented on how that wasn't a fair comparison, that a 757 can't be beat and that NWA's 757-300 was THE BEST....

you blast away....

I commented that I thought JP Morgan's analysts were too harsh on NWA

you blast away....

What gives?

BTW - Back when Delta ordered their 757's their PR said it was intended to be a 727 AND a DC-9 replacement. Delta was the DC9's launch customer.

Dont be so sensitive Fins , i wasn't "blasting away" i mearly commented that the dc9 and the 757 have completely different missions and that CASM numbers were based on route structures we at NWA dont use the 9 for. I also commented on the JPmorgan comments because you used it as a smear on NWA, even though you knew it wasn't accurate. By no means was it meant to be a "blast away" at you.

 

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DTW:

OK, you knew I meant the DC9's, didn't you?

DAL is sinking a Billion in their 767's seats, winglets and inflight entertainment. The 767's are some of the youngest aircraft in the fleet. The old 767's, the -200's are already gone. You'll have to visit our museum in Atlanta to find a -200.

The 767-400's are younger than our 777's (I think).

Delta has something like 200 rolling options for 737's. I hope the 737-700 is the DC9 replacement. The problem with the 737 in the past has been that it is expensive. Maybe with airlines deferring orders Boeing might work with us to get some more 737's on the property.

By the way - It stinks that nothing was done to preserve Pan Am's history. Delta has a nice little museum in Atlanta (open to anyone who is bored on an ATL overnight). But more room is devoted to "ASA's merger with Delta" than Pan Am's. Are there any plans to capture any of NWA's history? I'm a airplane museum nut and would gladly contribute to keeping NWA's stuff on display somewhere.

 

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Super92:

True - your DC9's have an average stage length around 450 miles, the 757 around 1,200 miles. Today the DC9 is operated like a CRJ200.

It will be interesting to see if the combined fleet is utilized differently. I've been told the MD90 is more efficient than a 737 over short stage lengths.

 

[dtfl]

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

Without the 9s you have a young fleet. With them - there is a 5 yr spread.

From Forbes - as of yesterday 6/3/08---

The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest Airlines (nyse: NWA - news - people ). Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s. At the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.

Northwest Airlines

Average Age: 17.5 years
Size of fleet: 356 planes
NYSE: NWA
The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest. Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s; at the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.
​

Delta Air Lines

Average Age: 12.4 years
Size of fleet: 578 planes
NYSE: DAL
Delta is getting married to Northwest airlines--forming the May-December romance of the airline industry--and will bring as its dowry a fleet mostly of Boeings and Bombardiers. Like Northwest, however, the oldest part of Delta's fleet are McDonnell-Douglases. At the end of the year, Delta had 117 MD-88s still operating at an average age of 17.5.
​

 

[DTW320]

Without the 9s you have a young fleet. With them - there is a 5 yr spread.

From Forbes - as of yesterday 6/3/08---

The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest Airlines (nyse: NWA - news - people ). Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s. At the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.

Northwest Airlines

Average Age: 17.5 years
Size of fleet: 356 planes
NYSE: NWA
The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest. Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s; at the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.
​

Delta Air Lines

Average Age: 12.4 years
Size of fleet: 578 planes
NYSE: DAL
Delta is getting married to Northwest airlines--forming the May-December romance of the airline industry--and will bring as its dowry a fleet mostly of Boeings and Bombardiers. Like Northwest, however, the oldest part of Delta's fleet are McDonnell-Douglases. At the end of the year, Delta had 117 MD-88s still operating at an average age of 17.5.
​

Sorry, you're wrong. Your 12.4 year number includes your RJ fleet. It's all available in 2007's 10k forms for both airlines and DAL's breaks out the numbers with and without your RJ's. Apples to Oranges.I've posted it all before. You can do a search for it.

Fins:

There is already a NWA museum near the airport in MSP. It's over near the mall of america.

 

[Superpilot92]

Super92:

True - your DC9's have an average stage length around 450 miles, the 757 around 1,200 miles. Today the DC9 is operated like a CRJ200.

It will be interesting to see if the combined fleet is utilized differently. I've been told the MD90 is more efficient than a 737 over short stage lengths.

Exactly!! thats where hopefully the DAL mgmt team will redeploy the remaining dc9s where they are best utilized. The dc9 is a great people mover on short routes and thats where the numbers start getting fuzzy because how CASM is established. The 9s wont be around forever but they will have a role in the new DAL at least as a filler till either 737s come or a different replacement is found. We are going to see the big changes in the utilization rates and staffing levels with the NWA fleet once its brought up to DAL staffing levels. NWA runs a tight ship as far as staffing goes. Its going to be very interesting to see the merged companies plans on redeploying aircraft and bases.

 

[General Lee]

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

We got rid of our "old" 767s---the 767-200s went to ABX. Our "newer" 767s are getting winglets on them and crew quarters for longer flights. And, when your 742s go away, I have heard some of the 767-300ERs could get cargo doors and go to ANC. You will be seeing those 767s for a LONG time to come, a lot longer than those DC9s.

And I LOVE your comment about NWA having the "youngest" transatlantic fleet for ANY airline. I think Virgin, Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa would disagree, but you do know it all.........(also Emirates does fly only very very new 777s across the Atlantic from Dubai, but that doesn't count...) Across the Atlantic, you are a small player overall. You got to a total of 6 cities across the pond, including Mumbai (not in Europe). I wouldn't be bragging about Europe. (we don't brag about Asia either)


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

We got rid of our "old" 767s---the 767-200s went to ABX. Our "newer" 767s are getting winglets on them and crew quarters for longer flights. And, when your 742s go away, I have heard some of the 767-300ERs could get cargo doors and go to ANC. You will be seeing those 767s for a LONG time to come, a lot longer than those DC9s.

And I LOVE your comment about NWA having the "youngest" transatlantic fleet for ANY airline. I think Virgin, Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa would disagree, but you do know it all.........(also Emirates does fly only very very new 777s across the Atlantic from Dubai, but that doesn't count...) Across the Atlantic, you are a small player overall. You go to a total of 6 cities across the pond, including Mumbai (not in Europe). I wouldn't be bragging about Europe. (we don't brag about Asia either)


Bye Bye--General Lee