NWA/DAL negotiations update

[JAM-BRO]

Actually, relative seniority by equipment.

By equipment???????? You are either on dope or you are very junior... What's your DOH? 2008...

 

[Monster Buck]

[quote=~~~^~~~

Steenland's comments are public record. He planned to replace the DC9's and NWA's current fleet plan reflects this.

The E175 and the CRJ900's are very nearly 100 seat aircraft. They are close enough to fit the need and the CRJ900's are at least 8% more efficient on a CASM than any 100 seater out there.

100 seats isn't magic. 76 seats is close enough and a 737-700 is close enough, for now.



Huh? If the route needs a 100 seat, using a plane with about 25% less capacity on it from the get go plays real hell on your 8% savings doesn't it. With the current margins, a 76 seat is no where near "close enough" to a 100 seat jet. Maybe ten years ago, but not now. Hence the reason Steenland and NWA were driving hard for the C-series. The plan. They may try to hold market on some routes with a loss on capacity but definately not as a system wide plan of replacing the 9's with 76's.

 

[patrickdc9]

Well, I still would like to be Superpilot 92's Captain on that -9. We would have a BLAST in Minot, Flint, and Lansing. Heck, I bet we could "rip the town a new one" in Grand Forks, and watch out Sioux Falls! Me and Super92, we will be KICKIN some Arse!!!! We'll show YOU---FARGO!


Bye Bye--General Lee

Those Minot, Grand Forks, and Fargo overnights are usually the most fun layovers, and it could potentially be a fun night with the General as captain. Unfortunately the most likely scenario would be me and the flight attendants waiting down in the lobby for the General to show up, only to realize that he never will because he's closed the curtains to his hotel room, stipped down to his underwear, turned on his computer, and logged on to FI.com (his happy place). Meanwhile the flight attendants and I are having a blast at the bowling alley enjoying several $5 pitchers of beer, playing all the games we can for $5 while making fun of the locals and our lame-o captain.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Huh? If the route needs a 100 seat, using a plane with about 25% less capacity on it from the get go plays real hell on your 8% savings doesn't it. With the current margins, a 76 seat is no where near "close enough" to a 100 seat jet.

What part you having a hard time with?

DC9's CASM for 2007 on the -30's was 11.1 cents per seat mile. The -50's had the best numbers at 8.8 cents/mile. The CRJ900's are 7.3 cents/mile. These are total costs, inclusive of acquisition/lease expenses, crews, fuel, etc....

That's even better than Delta's MD88 costs of 7.5 cents per seat mile.

Do you need me to look up NWA's fall and winter quarter 2007 conference calls for Steenland's comments (again ) ?

In actual trip costs, using Compass & Mesaba saves NWA ~ $1,000 a block hour. The 24 seat reduction will take out the family and kids going to Disney before it takes out the salesman on his way to a business meeting on a high yield fare.

If justification exists, Delta will up gauge the route to a 737-700 or 124 seat A319 for 6.1 cents per seat mile.

Either way, an airplane with 11.1 cent CASM can't make money going head to head with against the competition AND SkyWest, Republic and a host of others are happy to buy the airplanes AND have paid cash for code share (reference the ASA asset sale and numerous codeshare sales at US Air) AND Delta is in codeshare contracts in needs out of. They can work out a deal to park 50 seaters in exchange for growth 90 (configured with 76) seaters.

Delta will not chose a 11.1 CASM jet when a 7.3 CASM alternative is readilly available. The company has to make money. They are not nostalgic for old airplanes.

Every DC9 parked should increase marginal profit around $3,500,000.00 a year and yes that is considering RJ acquisition costs. Throw in the loss of longevity and other factors associated with outsourcing and the numbers are probably better.uke:

UNDERSTAND - I don't advocate this, I'm just explaining what the numbers are. The managers have better data and are years ahead of me. I'm just typing for the folks who don't read their own Company's PR.

Doesn't NWA have a displacement bid out?

 

[~~~^~~~]

By equipment???????? You are either on dope or you are very junior... What's your DOH? 2008...

It was a reference to Arbitrator Nicolau's reasoning in Tigers/FedEx and Am West/US Air.

It is highly likely that the precedent of arbitrators crafting awards to maintain the status quo will remain the logic used in future awards.

 

[~~~^~~~]

I think some DC9s will remain to fill in a small niche. We shall see I guess....

Bye Bye--General Lee

General: You are right that some DC9's will remain, but only as long as it takes to get their replacements on the property. That could still take 2 or 3 years.

Impressed that you can spell Glen's name correctly. I have to cut n paste.

 

[General Lee]

General: You are right that some DC9's will remain, but only as long as it takes to get their replacements on the property. That could still take 2 or 3 years.

Impressed that you can spell Glen's name correctly. I have to cut n paste.

I agree, the DC9s would not be around forever. I would think that we could get some MD90s (I heard 20 from a certain MEC member high up there) or other planes to somewhat fill in the gap until the newest 73N comes around. We will continue to get 737-700s and 777LRs in the meantime also. Fingers crossed!


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Curious,

Has dal ever xcld/postponed orders?

I agree, the DC9s would not be around forever. I would think that we could get some MD90s (I heard 20 from a certain MEC member high up there) or other planes to somewhat fill in the gap until the newest 73N comes around. We will continue to get 737-700s and 777LRs in the meantime also. Fingers crossed!


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

Curious,

Has dal ever xcld/postponed orders?

Yes. Has Compass?

 

[General Lee]

Curious,

Has dal ever xcld/postponed orders?

Probably, but they are "in bed" with Boeing now. We are already adding 777 orders via options from 737-800s. It will be interesting how things develop. I hear the 20 MD90s from Saudia are just waiting to be picked up. We'll see if we get them now or later depending on the economy.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Were you not in bed with boeing prior to and after 9/11? And did you not postpone delivers at that time? Do you think they might/will postpone these orders? Do you think they might take these orders and park 88s, thus no increase in flying? You know where I am going with this, right? Do you think if oil stays at 120+ dal is going to keep growing, even though 85 a barrel sent them to ch11? I admire your faith in mother d's ability to defy high oil and recession and conquer the world, but don't you think with the current conditions w/or w/out the merger there will be some bigtime shrinkage? Until they are on the property and being flown by your sen. list they are fiction. Period. This includes our 78 orders/options so you don't have to point that out.

Probably, but they are "in bed" with Boeing now. We are already adding 777 orders via options from 737-800s. It will be interesting how things develop. I hear the 20 MD90s from Saudia are just waiting to be picked up. We'll see if we get them now or later depending on the economy.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Were you not in bed with boeing prior to and after 9/11? And did you not postpone delivers at that time? Do you think they might/will postpone these orders? Do you think they might take these orders and park 88s, thus no increase in flying? You know where I am going with this, right? Do you think if oil stays at 120+ dal is going to keep growing, even though 85 a barrel sent them to ch11? I admire your faith in mother d's ability to defy high oil and recession and conquer the world, but don't you think with the current conditions w/or w/out the merger there will be some bigtime shrinkage? Until they are on the property and being flown by your sen. list they are fiction. Period. This includes our 78 orders/options so you don't have to point that out.

If you park a leased airplane, wouldn't you still have to pay for it? The MD88s are leased, and even though it is for less than pre-BK, it is a liability. Your DC9s are fully owned. They can be parked and nothing is still owed to anyone.

As far as "big time shrinkage" for Delta, well, we have already gone through that period, and now we are "bare boned." We have had to throw unprofitable RJs on routes because we don't have the mainline planes to do new ones. All of those 737-200s, 737-300s, 767-200s, and MD11s left after 9-11. How about you guys? Have you had that "Spring cleaning" yet? You are now starting to do that with some DC9s. Yes, you got rid of DC10s (just like we got rid of L1011s) also. I have a feeling that you are going to get cleaned more than we will. You have a lot of planes that are more affected by high oil. That doesn't mean we won't lose some planes, but I would think we would lose more RJs than mainline planes. And, those MD90s are out there, and we have trained CVG MD88 crews for that purpose. They could be delayed a bit, maybe until next Spring I would guess.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[800Dog]

If you park a leased airplane, wouldn't you still have to pay for it? The MD88s are leased, and even though it is for less than pre-BK, it is a liability. Your DC9s are fully owned. They can be parked and nothing is still owed to anyone.

As far as "big time shrinkage" for Delta, well, we have already gone through that period, and now we are "bare boned." We have had to throw unprofitable RJs on routes because we don't have the mainline planes to do new ones. All of those 737-200s, 737-300s, 767-200s, and MD11s left after 9-11. How about you guys? Have you had that "Spring cleaning" yet? You are now starting to do that with some DC9s. Yes, you got rid of DC10s (just like we got rid of L1011s) also. I have a feeling that you are going to get cleaned more than we will. You have a lot of planes that are more affected by high oil. That doesn't mean we won't lose some planes, but I would think we would lose more RJs than mainline planes. And, those MD90s are out there, and we have trained CVG MD88 crews for that purpose. They could be delayed a bit, maybe until next Spring I would guess.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Been hearing about MD-90s for over a year now. Are you hearing the ones from China are no longer an option and we are looking elsewhere for MD-90s?

 

[hockeypilot44]

If you park a leased airplane, wouldn't you still have to pay for it? The MD88s are leased, and even though it is for less than pre-BK, it is a liability. Your DC9s are fully owned. They can be parked and nothing is still owed to anyone.

As far as "big time shrinkage" for Delta, well, we have already gone through that period, and now we are "bare boned." We have had to throw unprofitable RJs on routes because we don't have the mainline planes to do new ones. All of those 737-200s, 737-300s, 767-200s, and MD11s left after 9-11. How about you guys? Have you had that "Spring cleaning" yet? You are now starting to do that with some DC9s. Yes, you got rid of DC10s (just like we got rid of L1011s) also. I have a feeling that you are going to get cleaned more than we will. You have a lot of planes that are more affected by high oil. That doesn't mean we won't lose some planes, but I would think we would lose more RJs than mainline planes. And, those MD90s are out there, and we have trained CVG MD88 crews for that purpose. They could be delayed a bit, maybe until next Spring I would guess.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I think the NWA pilots have scope to keep from parking many more DC-9's. If NWA does park more DC-9's, it will have to park leased EMB-175's and CRJ-900's. These EMB-175's and CRJ-900's are liabilities which combined with NWA pilot scope make DC-9's liabilities. Granted, I think scope will change with this merger, and all the DC-9's will be gone. If the merger doesn't happen, I think they will all be gone anyhow pending a bankruptcy, but NWA does have over three billion in the bank.

 

[Sinca3]

Been hearing about MD-90s for over a year now. Are you hearing the ones from China are no longer an option and we are looking elsewhere for MD-90s?

What I was told by two different people were that China couldn't make up their minds about the MD90's. Word got out that DAL was looking for some good used MD90's and Saudi Air or Emirates or someone over there contacted our people for a deal. Last I heard it was a done deal, but just like everyoe else.....
I'll believe it when my a$$ is sittin in it!

 

[patrickdc9]

If you park a leased airplane, wouldn't you still have to pay for it? The MD88s are leased, and even though it is for less than pre-BK, it is a liability. Your DC9s are fully owned. They can be parked and nothing is still owed to anyone.

As far as "big time shrinkage" for Delta, well, we have already gone through that period, and now we are "bare boned." We have had to throw unprofitable RJs on routes because we don't have the mainline planes to do new ones. All of those 737-200s, 737-300s, 767-200s, and MD11s left after 9-11. How about you guys? Have you had that "Spring cleaning" yet? You are now starting to do that with some DC9s. Yes, you got rid of DC10s (just like we got rid of L1011s) also. I have a feeling that you are going to get cleaned more than we will. You have a lot of planes that are more affected by high oil. That doesn't mean we won't lose some planes, but I would think we would lose more RJs than mainline planes. And, those MD90s are out there, and we have trained CVG MD88 crews for that purpose. They could be delayed a bit, maybe until next Spring I would guess.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Are you joking? NWA did more "cleaning house" in BK than any other airline. That's precisely why we have the lowest operating cost in the business. Only a few years ago we had a fleet of 165 DC9's. We had almost 500+ total aircraft, while now we have 300 and some change.

If you think Delta is still going to receive those aircraft this year with fuel $130 + you're high.

 

[PlaneDrvr]

Are you joking? NWA did more "cleaning house" in BK than any other airline. That's precisely why we have the lowest operating cost in the business. Only a few years ago we had a fleet of 165 DC9's. We had almost 500+ total aircraft, while now we have 300 and some change.

If you think Delta is still going to receive those aircraft this year with fuel $130 + you're high.

Here's a response I post on another thread, about the General talking about DL continuing to expand/hire, because they have all of these a/c being delivered.


-----General,

First I don't work for DL or NWA, so don't have a dog in this fight. However, just want to 'enlighten' you.

From DL own info; they list about half of their MD-88 fleet as 'owned' (not leased), about 63 a/c, and also shows only about 18 of those a/c with financing/ETCs (enhanced trust certificates/bonds) attached to them. And, in their 767-300 fleet, about 54 a/c as 'owned' with only about 10 with ETCs attached. Thus, DL has plenty of room to park more than a few a/c, with NO financial penalty; and may in fact do so to reduce capacity. And, I did even look at the 757 fleet.

Very simple 'fact' if DL announced a large# of a/c being parked, major 'cutbacks' and 'lay-offs' What do You think would happen to 'support' for the merger?? From local/state gov't, unions, etc. Simple politics.

If you think that the new DL will just continue to 'expand, expand' and add more a/c, with oil at $125-130/bbl. economy slowing even more (I personal believe we are going into a prolonged recession later this year), and European economies slowing (recently reported, First/Business class flyers in the first 4 mths of this year, down 4-5%); if you still believe the expansion will just go on and on, then maybe I can sell you the Brooklyn Bridge. It just turned 125yrs. old, took 14 yrs. to build in 1883, but still 'like new'

Just FYI, for what its worth.

PD------

 

[clippyrip]

Granted, I think scope will change with this merger, and all the DC-9's will be gone.

All of them, really, every single one. You should probably stick to Hockey and leave the analysis to others. It was Anderson who decided to have the 9s refurbished. They are paid for and cost less to operate because they have no lease payment. Leases can be broken, so keep your eye on the 88s not the 9.

 

[patrickdc9]

All of them, really, every single one. You should probably stick to Hockey and leave the analysis to others. It was Anderson who decided to have the 9s refurbished. They are paid for and cost less to operate because they have no lease payment. Leases can be broken, so keep your eye on the 88s not the 9.

Actually the decision to refurbish the 9's and keep them flying well into the 21st century was made in the mid-90's while Dasburg was the CEO. Richard Anderson was just a lowly lawyer for NW.

 

[clippyrip]

Very simple math...a fuel efficient Honda with a lease payment costs more a month to operate than my paid for Chevy with 15 mpg.