JetBlue upgrade times

[CaptainSpaz]

There has been alot of talk about this here lately, and I thought I would do some homework to cut through the speculation:

Ok, so here are the numbers from the SEC 10K. I am going to go with the most liberal numbers so nobody can accuse me of not giving us the benefit of the doubt...

A320s (as of Dec 2007)
Current: 104
Orders (firm AND options): 102
Subtract the 10 we are selling through early 2009...
Total (by 2015): 196

We staff 7.5 pilots per seat on the Airbus.

196 x 7.5 = 1470

Assuming we excercise all options to buy, and sell no more aircraft, thats 1470 A320 captain positions available by January 2016.

Now, lets add in career FOs and a Blend of 190 captains (assuming current pay rates). Junior 320 captain MIGHT be around 1700 or 1800? Lets say 1800.

If you are looking at coming here to JetBlue, you can expect to be somewhere around seniority number 2100 by the time you get on property.

So, after 8 years, if attrition below you equals at least 400 numbers, you could be the junior, reserve captain.

Discuss...

 

[dudemize]

Good analysis, Spaz.

I left JB last August and I came up with close to the same numbers.

My rough calculation indicated that an expected upgrade to line holding 320 Captain was effectively, never (I was around 1840 when I left). As you indicated it may be possible to be a very junior Capt on the bus but with years of reserve in front of you.

However, my decision to leave was still a tough one and upgrade time was not a primary factor. As we all know it can change for the better or worse in a heartbeat.

 

[Whiskerbizkit]

Thats assuming you dont mind beeing in JFK. If you look at the other bases, add 3 more years.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Never base career decisons on projected airplane deliveries. They can be cancelled at any time. You'd better worry more about fuel prices and the fact that you're hemmoraging cash.

 

[CaptainSpaz]

Never base career decisons on projected airplane deliveries. They can be cancelled at any time. You'd better worry more about fuel prices and the fact that you're hemmoraging cash.

I was giving every contributing factor the benefit of the doubt, so the blue-juice drinkers wouldn't cry foul. I think that was pretty obvious.

 

[zkmayo]

Never base career decisons on projected airplane deliveries. They can be cancelled at any time. You'd better worry more about fuel prices and the fact that you're hemmoraging cash.

Because worrying about fuel costs will always help...

 

[Fubijaakr]

Because worrying about fuel costs will always help...

Of course it won't, but considering B6's hedge position (none) I'd say your chances of getting furloughed are better than your chances of upgrading.

But, perhaps F9 will buy/merge with you.

 

[DonVersteed]

Fubi,

You obviously don't know what you're talking about. Jetblue does have hedges and thier market cap is over 12 times F9's (making it hard for F9 to buy them). Please get your facts straight before you post.

 

[johnboy99]

Fubi,

You obviously don't know what you're talking about. Jetblue does have hedges and thier market cap is over 12 times F9's (making it hard for F9 to buy them). Please get your facts straight before you post.

Fubi has been under a rock for the last 5 years or so. A member of flightinfo for the since 2003 and he made their first post this weekend mostly trashing JB. I'd say he is behind the times a little or just waking up from a long winter nap. Welcome to Flightinfo fubi.

 

[Chronic Jetlag]

Staffing ratio is closer to 7.1 - 7.2 crews per plane for the bus. The 190 ratio 6.8 - 6.9 because of lower AC utilization (almost no redeyes).

196x7.2=1411 bus capts.
200x6.9=1380 190 capts.

 

[zkmayo]

Of course it won't, but considering B6's hedge position (none) I'd say your chances of getting furloughed are better than your chances of upgrading.

But, perhaps F9 will buy/merge with you.

Point is, d.s., worrying about oil prices, a merger, or a furlough wont do anything productive for you except for give you gray hair.

The only thing you can do is always have a plan B in this industry. That and not posting unless you know what youre talking about.

 

[Dizel8]

Fubi is a troll, nothing but venom in him. He used to be over at another website, apparently he has had some issues.

He has a love-hate relationship with jetblue, he loves to hate.

He was on here for a bit, but disappeared, he is now back and continuing his tirade. Sure his shrink wish he wasn't.

 

[Caveman]

I'm not necessarily disputing the numbers, but how is B6 any different than any other carrier right now? If you try and do a purely numerical analysis no new hires would ever upgrade at any airline. Yet we all know that's not the case.

Using the above numbers everybody on property right now could be a 320 CA if you assume attrition is 200 over the next 8 years.

As bad as some of you are suggesting it may be here how do we compare to other majors?

DAL: Stopped hiring. When they restart how long to hold narrow body CA? 8+? 10+?

UAL: Same as above

SWA: Slowed hiring to a crawl. 10+ upgrades.

CAL: Still hiring. Upgrades same as B6.

LCC: Started hiring. Never upgrade.

NWA: Hiring. 10+ upgrades.

UPS: Not hiring. Upgrades 8+.

FedEx: Not hiring. Upgrades 7+.

AAA: Still have furloughs. Upgrades 15+.

So just exactly how is the forecasted doom and gloom any better or worse at B6? Except for CAL at all the airlines still hiring we're talking about 10 year upgrades just to be a reserve CA. I'll grant you can make more money as an FO at some of them, but I'm betting (hoping?) that JetBlue will recognize the changing state of upgrades and improve our FO pay.

I still think our glass is half full. The industry is once again in a tough state. We are as well positioned as anybody else to survive and we are still growing and still hiring even if only minimally. Of the airlines still hiring only SWA has any appeal for me. Even if I were put in the SWA pool today it would be 2 years before I got on property. Add 10 years to upgrade plus a couple more to hold a line and I will never be a line holding CA at SWA. I think I'll take my chances with JetBlue. I don't see anything else out there right now that's significantly better.

YMMV

 

[coogebeachhotel]

I'm not necessarily disputing the numbers, but how is B6 any different than any other carrier right now? If you try and do a purely numerical analysis no new hires would ever upgrade at any airline. Yet we all know that's not the case.

Using the above numbers everybody on property right now could be a 320 CA if you assume attrition is 200 over the next 8 years.

As bad as some of you are suggesting it may be here how do we compare to other majors?

DAL: Stopped hiring. When they restart how long to hold narrow body C? 8+? 10+?

UAL: Same as above

SWA: Slowed hiring to a crawl. 10+ upgrades.

CAL: Still hiring. Upgrades same as B6.

LCC: Started hiring. Never upgrade.

NWA: Hiring. 10+ upgrades.

UPS: Not hiring. Upgrades 8+.

FedEx: Not hiring. Upgrades 7+.

AAA: Still have furloughs. Upgrades 15+.

So just exactly how is the forecasted doom and gloom any better or worse at B6? Except for CAL at all the airlines still hiring we're talking about 10 year upgrades just to be a reserve CA. I'll grant you can make more money as an FO at some of them, but I'm betting (hoping?) that JetBlue will recognize the changing state of upgrades and improve our FO pay.

I still think our glass is half full. The industry is once again in a tough state. We are as well positioned as anybody else to survive and we are still growing and still hiring even if only minimally. Of the airlines still hiring only SWA has any appeal for me. Even if I were put in the SWA pool today it would be 2 years before I got on property. Add 10 years to upgrade plus a couple more to hold a line and I will never be a line holding CA at SWA. I think I'll take my chances with JetBlue. I don't see anything else out there right now that's significantly better.

YMMV

So an FO at those above airlines will have the same career earnings? Nope DAL, CAL, UAL, NWA have widebodies therefore even though same upgrade time they will make more flying the heavies while waiting for the upgrade.

Familiar with second year pay at FEDEX, UPS, SWA?

Pay me that and I will sit FO, sideways, upside down whatever I don't care.........

 

[Dizel8]

So an FO at those above airlines will have the same career earnings? Nope DAL, CAL, UAL, NWA have widebodies therefore even though same upgrade time they will make more flying the heavies while waiting for the upgrade.

Familiar with second year pay at FEDEX, UPS, SWA?

Pay me that and I will sit FO, sideways, upside down whatever I don't care.........

Well then, by all means, go there!

 

[Bavarian Chef]

Caveman -- you really think FOs are gonna get a raise this year? How about 190 CAs?

We are after all ... "Flying Into a Challenging Year".

I would be absolutely amazed.


BTW -- anyone see our new "first class"? That rocks -- talk about legroom. The new cabins are really nice too. We should make some money off of the extra legroom thing.

 

[DIAMONDDD]

Fubi is a troll, nothing but venom in him. He used to be over at another website, apparently he has had some issues.

He has a love-hate relationship with jetblue, he loves to hate.

He was on here for a bit, but disappeared, he is now back and continuing his tirade. Sure his shrink wish he wasn't.

Do you think he is Velocipede? That's who I thought of.

 

[Caveman]

Caveman -- you really think FOs are gonna get a raise this year? How about 190 CAs?

We are after all ... "Flying Into a Challenging Year".

I would be absolutely amazed.


BTW -- anyone see our new "first class"? That rocks -- talk about legroom. The new cabins are really nice too. We should make some money off of the extra legroom thing.

Unfortunately, no I don't think we'll get much this year at all. I think the 190 CAs will get thrown a bone, but the rest of us might only get what amounts to a small COLA. Maybe a couple of bucks an hour and that's it.

 

[Whiskerbizkit]

Unfortunately, no I don't think we'll get much this year at all. I think the 190 CAs will get thrown a bone, but the rest of us might only get what amounts to a small COLA. Maybe a couple of bucks an hour and that's it.

If even that.

 

[commuterguy]

Just to add to Cavemans post, I believe CAL has cancelled all new hire classes for an undecided amount of time. This whole industry is looking pretty bad.