JetBlue upgrade times

[CaptainSpaz]

There has been alot of talk about this here lately, and I thought I would do some homework to cut through the speculation:

Ok, so here are the numbers from the SEC 10K. I am going to go with the most liberal numbers so nobody can accuse me of not giving us the benefit of the doubt...

A320s (as of Dec 2007)
Current: 104
Orders (firm AND options): 102
Subtract the 10 we are selling through early 2009...
Total (by 2015): 196

We staff 7.5 pilots per seat on the Airbus.

196 x 7.5 = 1470

Assuming we excercise all options to buy, and sell no more aircraft, thats 1470 A320 captain positions available by January 2016.

Now, lets add in career FOs and a Blend of 190 captains (assuming current pay rates). Junior 320 captain MIGHT be around 1700 or 1800? Lets say 1800.

If you are looking at coming here to JetBlue, you can expect to be somewhere around seniority number 2100 by the time you get on property.

So, after 8 years, if attrition below you equals at least 400 numbers, you could be the junior, reserve captain.

Discuss...

 

[dudemize]

Good analysis, Spaz.

I left JB last August and I came up with close to the same numbers.

My rough calculation indicated that an expected upgrade to line holding 320 Captain was effectively, never (I was around 1840 when I left). As you indicated it may be possible to be a very junior Capt on the bus but with years of reserve in front of you.

However, my decision to leave was still a tough one and upgrade time was not a primary factor. As we all know it can change for the better or worse in a heartbeat.

 

[Whiskerbizkit]

Thats assuming you dont mind beeing in JFK. If you look at the other bases, add 3 more years.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Never base career decisons on projected airplane deliveries. They can be cancelled at any time. You'd better worry more about fuel prices and the fact that you're hemmoraging cash.

 

[CaptainSpaz]

Never base career decisons on projected airplane deliveries. They can be cancelled at any time. You'd better worry more about fuel prices and the fact that you're hemmoraging cash.

I was giving every contributing factor the benefit of the doubt, so the blue-juice drinkers wouldn't cry foul. I think that was pretty obvious.

 

[zkmayo]

Never base career decisons on projected airplane deliveries. They can be cancelled at any time. You'd better worry more about fuel prices and the fact that you're hemmoraging cash.

Because worrying about fuel costs will always help...

 

[Fubijaakr]

Because worrying about fuel costs will always help...

Of course it won't, but considering B6's hedge position (none) I'd say your chances of getting furloughed are better than your chances of upgrading.

But, perhaps F9 will buy/merge with you.

 

[DonVersteed]

Fubi,

You obviously don't know what you're talking about. Jetblue does have hedges and thier market cap is over 12 times F9's (making it hard for F9 to buy them). Please get your facts straight before you post.

 

[johnboy99]

Fubi,

You obviously don't know what you're talking about. Jetblue does have hedges and thier market cap is over 12 times F9's (making it hard for F9 to buy them). Please get your facts straight before you post.

Fubi has been under a rock for the last 5 years or so. A member of flightinfo for the since 2003 and he made their first post this weekend mostly trashing JB. I'd say he is behind the times a little or just waking up from a long winter nap. Welcome to Flightinfo fubi.

 

[Chronic Jetlag]

Staffing ratio is closer to 7.1 - 7.2 crews per plane for the bus. The 190 ratio 6.8 - 6.9 because of lower AC utilization (almost no redeyes).

196x7.2=1411 bus capts.
200x6.9=1380 190 capts.