Netjets Hawker 4000s - How Many Before End of 2008?

[On Your Six]

Netjets Hawker 4000s - Questions

I read that you guys are expecting your first copy on the line in April:

http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6173012&nseq=0

It looks like a real nice bird up front too although it is surprising Pro Line 21 won't be used:

http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6166969&nseq=1

How many are you expecting before the end of 2008? How soon will newhires be assigned to the aircraft? Have current pilots been bidding the 4000 yet?

I imagine that it will sell pretty well and that it fits between a G200 and a Falcon 2000 in terms of performance and pax capability - right?

 

[172driver]

I am expecting zero.

 

[CA1900]

I read that you guys are expecting your first copy on the line in April...

Ha...haha.....hahahahahahaha... :laugh:

The thing's delivery date has been pushed back so many times, by the time it comes out, it'll be like buying a brand new Gremlin in 2008!

Looks like it'll be a nice plane, but nobody here is holding his breath for its arrival.

It looks like a real nice bird up front too although it is surprising Pro Line 21 won't be used...

That is kinda surprising to me, too. From those pictures, it looks like an updated version of the Honeywell Epic stuff like we have in the Sovereign:

http://www.airliners.net/photo/Untitled/Cessna-680-Citation/1171335/L/

How many are you expecting before the end of 2008?

My money is on Zero, but who knows? We were supposed to see deliveries last year, but none have yet materialized.

As for bidding, the plane has been on our standing bid form for a while now, but no actual aircraft bids have come out for it yet.

I imagine that it will sell pretty well and that it fits between a G200 and a Falcon 2000 in terms of performance and pax capability - right?

On paper, yes! As always, we'll have to see what the final product looks like. I'm hopeful! The specs on the sales page look pretty good, anyway.

 

[On Your Six]

I know the demonstrator (in the picture - N15QS) has been flying for awhile now. What's the hold up with Raytheon? Why has this thing been delayed so long? I know that it was expected to be on line years ago, but you'd think the manufacturing process would have been refined or expedited in the near term.

With such a large order (both NJA and Netjets Europe), you would expect Netjets would apply more pressure when frequent delays happen.

 

[CA1900]

What's the hold up with Raytheon?

I wish I knew. To my knowledge, this is the first airplane they've actually built from scratch. All the others have been acquisitions. The King Airs, the 1900, the classic Hawkers, the BeechJet -- all of them were built by other companies that Raytheon acquired. (And in the case of the BeechJet, it was a Mitsubishi design first!)


My theory?

If the just-announced Citation 850 beats the 4000 to market and lives up to its promises, we'll just cancel our order for the 4000.

At the rate Raytheon's going, that's not out of the realm of possibility!

 

[tankerswede]

All the others have been acquisitions. The King Airs, the 1900, the classic Hawkers, the BeechJet -- all of them were built by other companies that Raytheon acquired. (And in the case of the BeechJet, it was a Mitsubishi design first!)

Close. The Hawkers were obviously British, the Diamond Japanese. The whole King Air family is a long and well-established lineage of aircraft but the Premier was the first clean-sheet-of-paper airplane (besides Starship, which is sort of a category of its own).

 

[CA1900]

Close. The Hawkers were obviously British, the Diamond Japanese. The whole King Air family is a long and well-established lineage of aircraft...

But still an acquisition, when Raytheon bought Beechcraft.

Premier was the first clean-sheet-of-paper airplane (besides Starship, which is sort of a category of its own).

Ahh! I totally forgot about the Premier. Guess the 4000/Horizon is the second clean-sheet design.

 

[btodd77]

Talked with the Hawker-Beechcraft people in ATL the other day and according to the mechanics the delay is because everytime something gets changed they have to rewrite some code in the avionics. Supposedly everything runs through the avionics so the smallest change can have big effects. Don't know how true of an explanation that is, but seems plausible enough....do I hear an episode of mythbusters on this one??

 

[FLYLOW22]

My bet?

ZERO.

 

[Mach92]

Nota None Zip ....................

 

[On Your Six]

I thought I read that Netjets Europe was attempting to accelerate deliveries of various types of aircraft in 2008 including Hawker 4000s and Falcon 7Xs. I think I read that in AIN magazine (not the most reliable source though).

What has Raytheon had to say about the delivery delays? I still see ads for the 4000 in all of the magazines... It's confusing.

 

[mzaharis]

OK, I'll be the dork who says it - Raytheon doesn't care anymore! They sold Hawker-Beechcraft!

GS Capital partners (Goldman Sachs and Onex), Hawker-Beechcraft's new owners, however, might be rather concerned.

And, to add to the list of aircraft that Hawker-Beechcraft/Ex-Raytheon produced based on acquired designs, the T-6 Texan II is a derivative of the Swiss Pilatus PC-9.

It's interesting to read the post mortems on the Starship - I wonder if the 4000 will produce a similar story that won't come out until years from now. It is a slick plane, though, and if it lives up to its spec sheet, and is maintainable, and H-B can build it economically and with good quality, it should be a success.

 

[On Your Six]

OK, I'll be the dork who says it - Raytheon doesn't care anymore! They sold Hawker-Beechcraft!

GS Capital partners (Goldman Sachs and Onex), Hawker-Beechcraft's new owners, however, might be rather concerned.

And, to add to the list of aircraft that Hawker-Beechcraft/Ex-Raytheon produced based on acquired designs, the T-6 Texan II is a derivative of the Swiss Pilatus PC-9.

It's interesting to read the post mortems on the Starship - I wonder if the 4000 will produce a similar story that won't come out until years from now. It is a slick plane, though, and if it lives up to its spec sheet, and is maintainable, and H-B can build it economically and with good quality, it should be a success.

The fact that the demo aircraft is being flown to all of the airshows seems to indicate some interest on the manufacturer's part. Why even fly the demo around if people aren't serious? It's confusing because you would assume actions speak louder than words... Why take orders if you will ultimately have to give up the deposits? What is the manufacturer telling prospective customers (beyond Netjets)? I remember that Talon Air out of Farmingdale has been touting their upcoming Hawker 4000 available for charter soon...

Has the 4000 been certified yet? What are the potential holdups - any legit theories? It's too bad because it looks like a great airplane.

 

[jtf]

I went on 15QS over a year ago and talked to the test pilots. The airplane is a little smaller than the G-200 inside, but still very nice. The pilots told me it performs like a beast and ran off all kinds of impressive numbers, but then they said they were always having to ask eachother, "Why did it do that?" Evidently the avionics really have some gremlins and they have had to make changes to the design since the FAA changed certification requirements. My guess is that NJA and NJE don't take any until they can prove the gremlins have been removed.

 

[RNObased]

I am expecting zero.

I'm thinking that is solid bet.... Raytheon shouldn't be desiging anything from scratch.

Look at the 7X announced, designed, cert and delivered all in a fraction of the time of the 4000. I'm sure the list of biz jets that have been announced after the 4000/Horizon and are now flying with pax is long.

 

[mzaharis]

Has the 4000 been certified yet? What are the potential holdups - any legit theories? It's too bad because it looks like a great airplane.

Here's the latest from AIN, in an article reporting Hawker-Beechcraft deliveries for 2007:

Conspicuously absent from the deliveries is the super-midsize Hawker 4000, which was certified in November 2006 but had to meet additional certification requirements. The airplane is now in final testing. “We expect to announce confirmed [Hawker 4000] delivery dates in the coming weeks,” a spokesman told AIN.

http://www.ainonline.com/news/singl...awker-beechcraft/?no_cache=1&cHash=d1739f6b53

Here's another article from last September that discusses the 4000.

http://www.ainonline.com/news/singl...awker-beechcraft/?no_cache=1&cHash=fbcd30723f

 

[flywest]

I thought NJE just negotiated the accelerated delivery of 4 Hawker 4000's for this year. Maybe they are taking all of NJA's?

 

[CA1900]

I thought NJE just negotiated the accelerated delivery of 4 Hawker 4000's for this year. Maybe they are taking all of NJA's?

Hey, even if they doubled their delivery rate, two times zero is still zero.

 

[Guitar Guy]

The fact that the demo aircraft is being flown to all of the airshows seems to indicate some interest on the manufacturer's part. Why even fly the demo around if people aren't serious?

The interest from the manufacturer is to finally start generating some income from a plane that's swallowed up untold millions of dollars in development cost over the course of a decade. Flying N15QS around is a sales effort on their part.

Has the 4000 been certified yet? What are the potential holdups - any legit theories? It's too bad because it looks like a great airplane.

At one point, they had problems getting known-ice certification and some other certification required for 135 ops. Not being certified for 135 ops would be a show-stopper at NetJets, among others.

When I started at Boeing in 1989, I was there for the final certification of the 737-500. When I left just about 6 years later, I had been working on the 737-600/700/800. That's 6 years between generations. So I'd bet that Raytheon was (and now Hawker-Beechcraft is) sweating a lot over trying to sell a plane that probably should be seeing an improved model at this point in its design life.

 

[mzaharis]

One of the problems of Hawker 4000 certification is that it took more than 5 years from the start of the certification to the end. My understanding is that you're only held to the standards in place at the beginning of the certification - if regs change during certification, you're "grandfathered" in. During that time, the FARS for fuel systems were tightened (I forget exactly how, but maybe it was that an inerting system is required, or greater control of ignition source). Since the 4000 took more than 5 years, Raytheon had to, in effect, "restart" certification. They had already done the legwork, and could present their data, but they were liable for the latest FARs. I think they were able to "make a deal", where they received their type cert, but they were given a deadline to comply with the stiffer fuel system regs. That's been at least of the delay on getting to market.

This is off of memory and a quick google of AIN, so I apologize in advance if my accuracy isn't perfect.