DELTA fact or fiction.

[phishn@daves]

Only 60 retirements scheduled in 2008, 66 in 2009. DAL hiring is not due to retirements.

Are those retirements from the 60 rule, or 65 rule?

 

[FlyinGuy]

Hellooooo....$90 - $100 oil....mergers on the horizon!!!

 

[FDJ2]

Are those retirements from the 60 rule, or 65 rule?

60. The point is, DAL is scheduled to hire far more than 60 pilots in 2008. The change in the law wont have a material effect on DAL hiring in the next few years.

 

[Truckdriver]

Strictly rumors according to my buddys at Delta, however they hear that hiring will slow down drastically with the age 65 for the future.

Your buddies aren't too smart then. Only 60 retirements scheduled under the age 60 rule and hiring projections of 650 to as high as 1000. Hiring right now is almost all due to international growth. The only thing that will significantly slow hiring at Delta will be a merger or a very large domestic slowdown due to high oil prices and a recession. Both of those are likely so hiring may slow, but it won't be because of the age 65 rule. They will have to hire less, but only about 60-100 less per year for the next 5 years due to retirments. Not a very big immediate hit at Delta like it is at some other airlines.

 

[PilotOnTheRise]

Your buddies aren't too smart then. Only 60 retirements scheduled under the age 60 rule and hiring projections of 650 to as high as 1000. Hiring right now is almost all due to international growth. The only thing that will significantly slow hiring at Delta will be a merger or a very large domestic slowdown due to high oil prices and a recession. Both of those are likely so hiring may slow, but it won't be because of the age 65 rule. They will have to hire less, but only about 60-100 less per year for the next 5 years due to retirments. Not a very big immediate hit at Delta like it is at some other airlines.

Out of curiosity, what effect will mergers have on hiring? Will it slow, but not stop hiring, or will it result in furloughs? I've seen a few comments, from people, anticipating massive furloughs in 2008-2009, due to mergers. I think something needs to be done, to raise fares, but if merging, thus mass furloughs, is the answer, that isn't the answer I'd be looking for.

 

[~~~^~~~]

PilotOnThe Rise:

The replies in this thread are correct. Mergers do not make sense to reduce capacitity because other airlines will fill the void. Airlines are operating with 80+ percent load factors. There is not excess capacity.

Merger could mean growth, if done correctly.

Age 65 effects you much more than mergers.

 

[contrail67]

Exactly.

 

[Truckdriver]

PilotOnThe Rise:

Merger could mean growth, if done correctly.

Age 65 effects you much more than mergers.

IF mergers happen now, the age 65 thing really comes into play. It just appears to me that a perfect storm is coming together for more furloughs due to the age 65 rule, slowing economy, and potential mergers. I think we will now see furloughs in a merger because there will be no retirements to offset capacity cuts. If we can continue the ER/777 growth for the next couple of years we may be ok even in the event of a merger. In any case the next year or two just got alot more interesting and risky for the junior folks.

 

[General Lee]

Are those retirements from the 60 rule, or 65 rule?

It can't be from the 65 rule, it was just enacted. Those were from the age 60 rule. Again, we are hiring due to expansion, not retirements.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

IF mergers happen now, the age 65 thing really comes into play. It just appears to me that a perfect storm is coming together for more furloughs due to the age 65 rule, slowing economy, and potential mergers. I think we will now see furloughs in a merger because there will be no retirements to offset capacity cuts. If we can continue the ER/777 growth for the next couple of years we may be ok even in the event of a merger. In any case the next year or two just got alot more interesting and risky for the junior folks.

What capacity cuts? If any major cuts capacity, then a LCC will fill the void, and become larger. That would be feeding your competitor. For a merger to make sense, it would have to be almost seemless, like the USAir and AWA merger(operationally, not seniority wise). No hubs were closed, and no additional pilots were furloughed. If you are talking about NWA and Delta, there would probably have to be fences created, like only NWA pilots flying their 744s for 5 years etc. At the same time, only NWA pilots can fly their DC9s, and if they are parked, those pilots go to Compass. Fences can work both ways. Also, there is no guarantee that there will be any mergers this year. High oil may force some smaller LCCs to look at each other, but most of the legacies can weather this storm if they have strong INTL routes that help back up the softer domestic side.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Out of curiosity, what effect will mergers have on hiring? Will it slow, but not stop hiring, or will it result in furloughs? I've seen a few comments, from people, anticipating massive furloughs in 2008-2009, due to mergers. I think something needs to be done, to raise fares, but if merging, thus mass furloughs, is the answer, that isn't the answer I'd be looking for.

At Delta, age 65 will cause stagnation, but down the road. We are currently hiring for expansion reasons. We had 2300 pilots retire early for pension reasons prior to our BK. Most were early retirements, with some being only 50 years old. We are currently planning on getting 9 MD90s next year, 7 737-700s, and 4 777LRs. 4 more 777LRs are scheduled for 09, with rumors saying we will have 20 or more total within the next 3-5 years. 737-700s will supposedly number close to 25 in the next few years too, with 50-75 MD90s available on the market also. Why would we get used MD90s? They are nicer than the MD88s, we already have an MD90 Simulator, and our mechanics know how to fix them already. Many airlines in Asia and the Country of Saudi Arabia are getting rid of their MD90s in favor of new A320s. That's great, we'll take them. Rumor has it the ones we are currently looking at cost around $9 million each, including the engines. That is a lot cheaper than a new CR9 that costs $20 million or so. A lot of the newhires are going to NYC on the 767ER because we are adding a lot of new cities (to the large assortment of current routes to Europe) from JFK, including Amman, Cairo, London Heathrow, Paris Orly, Dakar, Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town, Malaga, Lyon, Tel Aviv, and Edinborough. We just started new 738 service from NYC to Panama City(Panama),Guatemala City, Liberia (Costa Rica), San Salvador, Port of Spain, San Jose (Costa Rica on a 757), along with Bogota on a 757 also. From Atlanta we start Stockholm (76ER), St Kitts (73N), and Cali and Medalin in Colombia. Lots of new flying and associated hiring that comes with it.

Bye Bye--General Lee


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Kenney G]

What capacity cuts? If any major cuts capacity, then a LCC will fill the void, and become larger. That would be feeding your competitor.


Then why are all the majors reducing domestic capacity next year?

 

[contrail67]

Looks to me that the reduction is at the regional level.

 

[Old School]

5% Domestic Capacity Reduction discussed in numerous articles but Intl Expansion should offset this.

 

[John Pennekamp]

Looks to me that the reduction is at the regional level.

That's because Prater's "Takin' it back"!