Seniority and DOH for CAL EQUIPMENT SYSTEM BID

[thor2j]

Never mind, found the damn thing.

 

[densoo]

yeah...but as Captain you get to taxi around, the speed brake is on your side, and you get the scrambled eggs on your hat. what a deal!

Going to work each day knowing what your work environment will be like since you're the captain is a good deal in my mind.

Work environment is a crapshoot otherwise (anywhere from the CA alienating the FAs so you get no food/water for 4 days, to continual near-ASAP reports).

 

[CAL EWR B737]

I'm trying to figure out how you planned that new hires will get IAH 756. According to the flight ops chart it looks like the line hits the 100% mark with current pilots. Can anyone shed some light?

Easy first of all lets look at each sub base I said they would be hiring into.

NYC 737 FO - graph shows bottom pilot on property as of yesterday (bottom column far right around seniority number 4924) meets the end of the NYC 737 FO graph line at 63%. That means to fill from the 63rd percentile to 100 percentile they will be filled with new hires. The bid will show a name a the 63% slot and every slot below will be blank.

NYC 756 FO Bottom pilot at the 80% mark same explanation as above.

IAH 737 FO Bottom pilot at the 83% mark same explanation as above.

CLE 737 FO Bottom pilot at the 97% mark same explanation as above.

GUM 77 FO Bottom pilot at the 94% mark same explanation as above.

 

[CAL EWR B737]

Interesting numbers!! If this is accurate than I move up 30% this bid in my base. Don't see it happening!!

This isn't rocket science there is no guess work except for interpolation of the graph.

Look this bid takes a look at what our airline will be staffed at one year out. Assuming your not switching base and position your starting point today (actual staffing) and the ending point next year is what the bid shows.

The airline will start to train and advance toward the bid in October. Remember these bids never come to complete fruition because they look to far out. American as a far superior system with very small bids only looking out a few months. There will be a new bid in Jan/Feb, however as long as we are moving in the same direction that one should be better than this one (in terms of your movement but again it will look one year out).

Also remember this these bids double bid all management pilots, those on LTD, sick leave or any type of leave of absence and those retiring. In my sub base NYC 756 CA there are 25 above me(on some type of sick leave or LTD) plus another 15 to retire before the last system bid effective date of Feb 08. That means to compare the current AUG staffing to the last bid (effective Feb 08) I would have to add had 25 to 40 to the last bid staffing number for my self to equally compare where I am when looking at AUG staffing. That puts me alot closer to where I was projected to be on the last bid for next FEB. Basically once those 15 or so retire and they train a few more above me over the next six months (again must count those double bid on the bid but not on the monthly staffing) and I will be very close to where I was projected on the last system bid on the effective date.

So yes you will move up 30% between now and next Aug. Retirements, those training and being advanced to different positions who are today above you will start to move you up. Also remember to see how many in your current sub base today are on LTD or sick leave and subtract them from your staff number as they are not counted in the bid.

Everyone understand now, clear as mud???

Look I have been analyzing these bids for 20 years now. All I can say is we need a new system but at least today they basically come true, twenty years ago - One bid moving 100 miles an hour in an expansion mode the next had reductions and 100 miles an hour in the opposite direction. So the bids were they totally useless at predicting where you would be a year out, at least today we are moving in the same direction every bid so they are (big picture) fairly accurate.

Also some basic information. The reason there is an effective date in this case Aug 1, 2008 is if by that date you are not actually in your system bid award you will be pay protected. We used to have a lot more pay protections but we gave them up in POS 02.

Very important for this bid to come to fruition two assumptions must be met. 91 pilots have to retire between Feb 01, 08 and July 31, 2008 (those who retire before Feb 1 were already accounted for in the last system bid) and we have to hire 446 pilots. If age 60 changes or we don't hire 446 pilots then yes you will not move up 30% as this bid will be invalid.

 

[Captain X]

Without an FE aircraft in the fleet, why would there be 60+ folks on the list? What am I missing here?

There was nothing contractually mandating that anyone who had reached the retirement age 60 (or 65 going forward) would be removed from the seniority list. Therefore, there are guys who "retired" from line flying but still remain in the Training Department or Management who, since they did not cease employment with the company, have remained on the seniority list.

It will require a provision in the Seniority Section of the new contract that stating that anyone who reaches the mandated retirement age forfeits all seniority rights and will be removed from the seniority list.

They would still probably grandfather anyone who was already on it, but with the FAA saying that they won't retroactively let retired guys return to the flight deck, I don't see why that would be necessary.

 

[imadumbpilot]

Look this bid takes a look at what our airline will be staffed at one year out. Assuming your not switching base and position your starting point today (actual staffing) and the ending point next year is what the bid shows.

The airline will start to train and advance toward the bid in October. Remember these bids never come to complete fruition because they look to far out. American as a far superior system with very small bids only looking out a few months. There will be a new bid in Jan/Feb, however as long as we are moving in the same direction that one should be better than this one (in terms of your movement but again it will look one year out).

Hey Jason,

If you look at the previous bid numbers, you see they don't even come close to staffing the bids.

First of all they always say the starting point for the current bid is the last bid. But if you look at the last bid you see it was supposed to be staffed to 4,476 pilots, this bid is supposed to be staffed to 4642 pilots so, in my opinion vacancies should start from the 4476, which would be 166 additional vacancies from the last bid not the 446 that they have. I also went back through the previous 4 bids to see where we were supposed to be. The system bid that closed in Jan '06 was supposed to have 4211 active bidders, we are just now at 4196 active bidders (the numbers from last summers bid were not available).

Anyway, I agree with you this is better than the reduction bids, but it looks to me like they are not interested in staffing this airline correctly ever! Unless we make them.

It would just be nice to see them use math that actually makes sense, and not airline accountant math.

 

[CAL EWR B737]

Mike,

I agree with your frustrations on how their (manpower planning) math never equals are basic math skills. I have been studying these bids for twenty years and I would have no hair left if I pulled some out every time I tried compare the numbers on the current bid from the previous bid.

This is how manpower planning (really flight operations aka Abbott) make the bid show what they want the end result to be. They just change all of the numbers, vacancies, reductions, active pilots etc. to equal what they want.

Lets look at the current numbers on this bid.

System ALL

Retirements 91
Active pilots 4196 ****
Min total pilots 4639
Max total pilots 4642
Captain Vacancies 176
First Officer Vacancies 270
Total Vacancies 446

First of all lets look at the active pilots number ****
All management pilots (including flight instructors), LTD pilots, Sick Leave, Those on FTFPL for ALPA, those projected to retire on this or previous bids but still on property and any other pilot who is double bid is NOT counted in this number.

Secondly this is where the funny math comes into place. The last bid had 392 vacancies essentially 392 pilots had to be hired. I counted them last month and I'm not going to do so again (to time consuming) but we have only hired approximately 232 pilots since the last bid was posted until this bid was posted. Leaving 160 unfilled positions from the last system bid prior to this bid. Which really means we are rebidding 160 of the 446 new positions or vacancies on this bid thus meaning this bid only has 282 new positions or vacancies. Now subtract the 91 who are going to retire and you get 191 new positions due to growth. How many new pilots on sick leave or LTD since the last bid? that also reduces the true growth on this bid.

You get my point to look at the total numbers they are just a shill for management to show what they want.

On the other hand if you look at the relative seniority of your placement in sub bases IE what the bid snap shot shows or what the real bid results will yield. The overall percentage of each pilot will be the close next year if age 60 and pilot hiring continues as projected.

I explained this already above at nausiam.

Lastly I need to re emphasize this because many don't understand. Use me as an example last bid which is effective FEB 08 had me at 247 out of 372 EWR B756 captains or 66%. August 07 staffing has me at 289/387 or 75%. It would appear we are now at about the half way point and I need to move from 289 to 247 by Feb 08 for the last bid to come to fruition.

However remember system bids double bid (or don't take into account those on LTD, management, training or those of FTFPL for the union. System staffing does. If I subtract the 25 or so in that category today that don't fly the line that takes me staffing wise down to 264 and if you look at the 15 or so who will retire above me on the EWR B756 from now through Jan 31, 2007 that will take me to number 249, subtract a few above me not already trained or advanced into their last system bid position and I am basically where I was projected to be on the last bid right now six months ahead of time.

Again nothing I said above takes away from the fact we need to negotiate a real staffing formula, system bidding section (to mirror what AA has) and other key changes.

Mike I look forward to flying with you soon. I am doing one Madrid and five Lisbon's in August. Sep have a week of vacation and I am supposed to work at the CAL ALPA puzzle palace for one week. Maybe we can fly soon. I love the airplane don't know what I was thinking about on that sh$t box the 737 for eight years and 5000 hours.

Frats,

Jayson

AGAIN FOR ALL THOSE USING THE SNAP SHOT TO ASSIST IN MAKING BID DECISIONS BY COMPARING WHAT % THE SNAP SHOT ESTIMATES YOU AT (ONE YEAR FROM NOW) WITH A RECENT REVIEW OF MONTHLY PBS RESULTS FOR THOSE ALREADY IN YOUR PROJECTED BID % TO SEE WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT SCHEDULE AND DAYS OFF WISE TO HOLD YOU NEED TO ADJUST THE FOLLOWING.

LOOK AT ALL THOSE ABOVE YOU ON STAFFING TODAY THAT ARE ON SICK LEAVE (SKLV) OR LTD (ULA) OR UNION WORK (PLA) AND SUBTRACT THAT FROM YOUR CURRENT STAFFING NUMBER. NOW RECALCULATE YOUR CURRENT REAL STAFFING PERCENTAGE. NOW WHEN YOU COMPARE YOUR REAL STARTING POINT % TO THE BID PROJECTED END POINT (NEXT AUG) YOU ARE COMPARING APPLES TO APPLES. WHEN THE BID COMES OUT LOOK AT YOUR ACTUAL NUMBER AND ADD ALL THOSE WHO ARE ON LTD ETC (THOSE DOUBLE BID ON THE SYSTEM BID)AND THAT WILL BE WHAT YOUR AUG 08 STAFFING NUMBER HOPEFULLY WILL BE (BEST CASE SCENARIO). YOU WILL NEVER ON THIS BID BE STAFFED AT YOUR SYSTEM BID AWARD NUMBER BECAUSE OF ALL THOSE NOT ACTIVLY FLYING DOUBLE BID AREN'T DOUBLE BID ARE ACTUALLY INCLUDED AND ACCOUNTED FOR ON THE MONTHLY SYSTEM STAFFING.

ALSO FOR THOSE UNAWARE YOU CAN VIEW ALL PREVIOUS PBS AWARDS FOR ALL BES (BASE EQUIPMENT AND STATUS) ON WWW.PREFBID.COM

REMEMBER THAT WONDERFUL CAL OLD ADAGE BID WHAT YOU WANT AND NOT WHAT YOU DON'T WANT.

 

[COpilot]

"dumbpilot", HaHa...

How long have you been here? In my 20, I swear they have NEVER staffed to the bid. Have you seen that "EWR 73"? Why they don't do what AA does with their system bids every (month? I think) is beyond me.

Just pulling your chain man, happy bidding.

 

[imadumbpilot]

"dumbpilot", HaHa...

How long have you been here? In my 20, I swear they have NEVER staffed to the bid. Have you seen that "EWR 73"? Why they don't do what AA does with their system bids every (month? I think) is beyond me.

Just pulling your chain man, happy bidding.

8 years, on and off I shoulda been a dr, but waddoIknow, Imjustadumbpilot.


Jayson, hope I see you soon on the line, BCN next month, just can't get enough of the beach and the Sangria!!

 

[densoo]

CAL EWR 737:

So if the snapshot shows an FO missing 756 captain in Newark by lets say 10 spots, and you see that there are 11 Newark 756 captains currently ULA etc, then theoretically this FO will likely be awarded the bottom 756 captain slot in Newark? (all things being equal).