Writing on the wall for major airlines

[Skyboss]

Is this some kind of joke?

Give it up.

 

[jarhead]

Nimtz

I fear you still don't get it. The airline business is not about you, or any pilot. What you, and others who are employees do to build your career is laudable. Great, make it the best it can be through your unions, associations, and individual effort. But, no matter how hard you try to elevate your pay, and reduce your work rules, increase your pensions, and raise your quality of life, there will always be a governor set on that engine. It can only run so fast, before the limit is reached. That limit is the market as a whole, and the prospect for success of the enterprise, that you are an employee of. Competition is that governor. I see so many airline pilots blindly rushing into the tide, thinking that they can turn it back. The LCC will be, and are the equalizers, and they will grow, because there is a market for them.

You know, I can just imagine, a hundred years or so ago, the employees of Acme Buggy Whip and Horse Shoe Company, writing letters to each other, extolling that this new fangled horseless carriage is just a flash in the pan. The public would soon tire of flat tires, getting stuck in a snowdrift, availability of gas stations. "You'll see, as soon as the next business cycle turns around, we'll be working overtime to crank out all the buggy whips the public will need"

 

[Skyboss]

You know, I can just imagine, a hundred years or so ago, the employees of Acme Buggy Whip and Horse Shoe Company, writing letters to each other, extolling that this new fangled horseless carriage is just a flash in the pan. The public would soon tire of flat tires, getting stuck in a snowdrift, availability of gas stations. "You'll see, as soon as the next business cycle turns around, we'll be working overtime to crank out all the buggy whips the public will need"

Great analogy.

 

[nimtz]

You know, I can just imagine, a hundred years or so ago, the employees of Acme Buggy Whip and Horse Shoe Company, writing letters to each other, extolling that this new fangled horseless carriage is just a flash in the pan. The public would soon tire of flat tires, getting stuck in a snowdrift, availability of gas stations. "You'll see, as soon as the next business cycle turns around, we'll be working overtime to crank out all the buggy whips the public will need"

Actually this analogy is a bit off. Yeah the automobile replaced the horse, so then you should be arguing something should be replacing air travel. Hey skyboss, jump right in here! Sorry but the LCC are not going to replace the mainlines, instead what we have is a more complicated dynamic to the competition then existed in the 80's.

A better analogy would be a new business opening up a competiting store across the street from Acme Company. Say that the competitor brings with him more efficent means of production by for example having new tools that don't wear out as quickly as Acme. So the competitor is thus able to keep his costs low and the price low. Since to the average person, every horseshoe is about the same, the competitor forces the Acme Company to change its tactics. It's not possible for Acme to simply replicate the business plan of the competition, because Acme has too much overhead already invested in his plan. Maybe the Acme owner starts offering repeat customers future horseshoes for free or whatever else.

The point is the competition forced Acme to change tactics, not simply go out of business. The mainlines staved off the LCC before through IT and yield management. While this advantage has finally been nullified after almost 15 years, it does not mean that the mainlines can't come up with another answer in the future.

I 'm not arguing that my profession's compensation and benefits need to be increased (other then in-line with inflation), I'm arguing that it doesn't have to fall just because everyone gets 'Peanut' Fares right now. Besides, if the day ever came where LCC pay was industry standard, then the next downturn every airline manager would seek 15% pay cuts from that to 'keep in line with what the market supports.'

'What the market can support' is management's favorite catch phrase during give backs, but somehow it is conviently forgotten when the company is making record profits as the majors where in the Mid 90's. As always, the speed of the governor was hidden from those who were deserving of a higher speed. This industry has survived with pilot compensation at its current levels and worker compensation had nothing to do with the current plights at American, United, and US Air. Heck even Delta has seen positive cash flows with their 'greedy, unrealistic' contract. At the same time compensation is not the biggest reason for the short-term success of Air Tran and Jet Blue. So while looking at the worst of the downturn in the rear view mirror, why then should I believe that LCC compensation is the wave of the future for this profession?

 

[Clownpilot]

OK

I am now 63 years old, and know far more than you might expect, as to the laws of economics, and how to run a business. Kind of amazing how I could do that, being an idiot, and such. However, if it makes you feel good, you certainly can reduce your argument to calling someone you never met, "an idiot" Far from irritating me, I actually get a chuckle out of your ranting.



Thank god for that. I'd hate to be the one responsible for giving you a heart attack old timer.

BTW why are you here?

Although it did ease my mind to know passengers don't have to take their chances with you.

 

[jarhead]

clownpilot

And the clown asks,

"BTW why are you here?"

Why, to irritate you, of course............no other reason.

And now (drum roll please) the clownpilot has the dubious distinction, of being the second moron to be added to my "ignore list". What a wonderful tool that is. I won't even be aware of his anticipated response to this post, as the ignore list in the user cp allows me such bliss. Because the door has been slammed in the clown's face forever, never to be seen by me again (sigh), we will no longer be able to exchange these pleasant moments with each other.

Good bye forever, clown (sob, sniff) I will dearly miss your sociopathic posts, but alas, I find I can no longer take the time to even see, let alone read your rants, much less waste my time responding to them.

Buh-bye

 

[WrightAvia]

Nothing like a nice warm cup of "S.T.F.U.".

 

[Dieterly]

Picture Jarhead having an argument with somebody (face to face); "LA LA LA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!

 

[daviator]

Did you know that JetBlue has already dropped some of its ATL-LGB routes?

 

[Skyboss]

Did you know that JetBlue has already dropped some of its ATL-LGB routes?

LGB is cursed. I can't believe they are running LGB-OAK. Southwest couldn't even make that route work. No less than 6 airlines have tried that route, all failed. As for ATL. Please, they are surrounded by DL at LAX and SNA.