Writing on the wall for major airlines

[Ty Webb]

I hate to sound rude, but that's about the most ignorant thing I've read on this forum for months.[/i]


Uh, no, actually, the most ignorant thing on the forum would be your post- in which you call what I have written "ignorant" but fail to address my post or coherently describe what it is that you disagree with.

Major airlines do tend to furlough between cycles . . . . got a question about that? Seems pretty self-evident to me. I am suy

 

[jarhead]

Well, ClownPilot, I certainly wouldn't EVER want to offend you, with your tender sensibilities and all. After all, I am just an idiot, in your all seeing wisdom. Let me put your fears to rest. I am not, nor have I ever been, a professional pilot. So, you in your infinite wisdom, missed the mark on that one. No, I made my mark in this world in business. I retired at age 57, and have lived quite comfortably with my success at piling up a pretty nice bundle of cash in my investments, and 401(k). I am now 63 years old, and know far more than you might expect, as to the laws of economics, and how to run a business. Kind of amazing how I could do that, being an idiot, and such. However, if it makes you feel good, you certainly can reduce your argument to calling someone you never met, "an idiot" Far from irritating me, I actually get a chuckle out of your ranting. I am not going to change your views, and never could. After all, what I know, would fit in the "dimple of a thimble". Did you ever try out for a debate team in college? I bet that argument would score lots of points. You know, if you can't produce a coherent point, just call 'em names, and tell them their mother wears combat boots.

I truly am sorry that I annoy you..........Naw, that's not true. I lied! In fact, I am amused by it, and rather enjoy that I annoy you.

 

[snowback]

I hate to sound rude, but that's about the most ignorant thing I've read on this forum for months.[/i]


Uh, no, actually, the most ignorant thing on the forum would be your post- in which you call what I have written "ignorant" but fail to address my post or coherently describe what it is that you disagree with.

Major airlines do tend to furlough between cycles . . . . got a question about that? Seems pretty self-evident to me. I am suy

I wasn't addressing your entire post, just the one line I quoted. It seems pretty self-evident.

Your last statement is correct. Major airlines do tend to furlough between cycles, but to say that most major pilots get furloughed is nonsense.

 

[secks]

Originally posted by Clownpilot
Like the downturn that got us here the upturn that follows will help return this profession to what it should be for the top guys. A high paying and enjoyable career.

Before you start placing others in your "biggest idiots" category, maybe you should try making some coherent arguments. Jarhead made some good points, and you didn't really refute any of them. Instead, you resorted to calling him an idiot. At your age, you should know better.

That aside, tell me: exactly how much should a "top" airline pilot earn? Don't you think $150+k/yr is excessive? Hell, many surgeons don't net that much in a year. Few lawyers do, either. Besides, why should a top airline pilot earn 3 times what a pilot of comparable skill earns at a regional? Does his experience/seniority really warrant such a higher wage?

You're complaining about people like jarhead destroying the airline pilot profession. The people who destroy it are those who demand such exorbitant wages that when the airlines aren't filing bankruptcy, they're furloughing pilots because the union wages aren't reasonable. These same people bar qualified pilots who are willing to work at a major for less than the union rate. I see exactly who's destroying what ..

 

[Immelman]

A few comments on that high-dollar business traveler that all the majors think they can 'woo' back..

Its interesting to look at this from the out-of-aviation perspective as well. I work as an engineer for a successful tech company who is just starting to loosen up on travel rules (post economic slump, now that things are recovering).

My company's travel policy is that domestically we have to fly coach on whatever the lowest fare is. Often, we do have to make travel plans at the last minute, but (thankfully), if SWA serves the route, then the walk-up fare is pretty reasonable (maybe $200 r/t compared to $600 on UA... easy choice!). After having flown 1st class domestically (see the other thread asking about eliminating 1st class), I can honestly say that it isn't worth it for 2-hour hops.. its extravagance that doesn't sell. My bet is that most people filling domestic 1st class seats these days are free mileage upgrades (take a look at www.flyertalk.com to see all the mileage scams...).

Internationally, my company allows us to book business class. Again, lowest price wins. Here, the 8+ hour flights do make it VERY nice to go biz or 1st class... but guess what - we rarely fly on US-based carriers to international routes because the competition is cheaper! I went to London last month from SFO and the business class fare on all US carriers was over TEN THOUSAND dollars. No thanks... we booked a 'full-fare' "premium economy" ticket on Virgin Atlantic (the seats are about as big as domestic first class) for $2500 and I got upgraded to 1st class both ways because their planes were FULL both ways! I've seen similar pricing when traveling British Airways, Korean Air, etc... in fact, the one time I flew UA biz class overseas, the service was just fine (I'm not picky), but really sub-standard compared to the foreign carriers.

I think that the LCC model is the only thing that will work for domestic US travel (possible exception of 5-6 hr transcon flights)... the "majors" need to accept this fact. Internationally, a 'premium' product will sell if you price it reasonably.

 

[saabtrash]

Actually Goldentrout, if we look back to a year ago, the LCC's already were rising. If you look back 2 years ago, they were rising. Notstradamus you are not.

 

[N2264J]

What an idiot indeed...

Jarhead, congratulations you just joined the ranks of Avbug and Skydiverdriver as the biggest idiots who post on these boards. Your fast food analogy is absolutely ludicrous.

Knowing people like you are in the same air as me scares the crap out of me. Please find another profession and stop trying to destroy this one. We don't need any help from you.

The voice of a "major" airline pilot mimicking the constipated mentally of the legacy carrier MECs Goldentrout referred to.

Actually, everything has changed except the way we think about it. Reality has shifed so much with the appearance of the smaller jets that the terms "major airline" and "regional airline" no longer apply. Now, there are only "airlines" and "airline pilots." The term "feeder," for instance, can be used to describe an aircraft of any size, at any company depending on whether it's pointed at the hub or away from the hub. By definition, feeders feed the hub and should no longer be catagorized by a particular aircraft or a specific airline.

Jarhead is correct. We are experiencing a sea change.

 

[Skyboss]

We'll see how JetBlue is doing in 5 years when their back end loaded lease deals begin adding up. They took a gamble that they are winning right now. That gamble assumes a large stash of cash now will be sufficient to cover lease payments that grow over time. This of course depends on them retaining their rather high load factor.

Of course, starting with $100 million covers up quite a bit of what would have been significant losses. It'll be interesting to watch. Long haul flying is pretty efficient.

 

[nimtz]

Major airline or not, if there is a void in international flying because every major airline went broke, someone will pick up the slack. Maybe a company like SWA or Airtran might buy an assload of 777's and hit europe and Asia? It's not that far fetched. More likely that with the demise of major airlines in the US (a very fat chance indeed) more than likely a foreign carrier would pick up the slack.

My money is on Continental though. I was looking at their annual report and it looks like they are consolidating with Boeing products. By next year, most of their MD's will be gone. A common (somewhat) fleet, flying efficient aircraft, not in bankruptcy, they could be poised to take some market share from the majors as they will inevitably decline, but not go away.

For that you would have to have a management team whose concern was growing into a more competitive airline, not filling their own pockets so deep that the Worldcom board would be jealous. Gordo's only got a few more years to go before he says he'll retire, so any money for growth is tied up in his compensation. My money is on CAL being the first name to disappear in the next round of consolidation, probably into DAL.

DiamondD:

Finally someone who doesn't buy into all the hype USA Today puts in front of them. Remember folks, the only low fare airline that survived the last time the majors were in a funk was SWA. The term 'dinasours' has been used before in describing the majors and they have come roaring back from times like this before. The fact that some of you guys are content with LCC pay scales for your entire career makes me fear the future of our profession. It's too bad all the work of those who have gone long before us will be wasted...

 

[transienttorque]

We'll see how JetBlue is doing in 5 years when their back end loaded lease deals begin adding up. They took a gamble that they are winning right now. That gamble assumes a large stash of cash now will be sufficient to cover lease payments that grow over time. This of course depends on them retaining their rather high load factor.

Of course, starting with $100 million covers up quite a bit of what would have been significant losses. It'll be interesting to watch. Long haul flying is pretty efficient.

By then Jetblue will have their Maglev modified aircraft and be saving money by not having to buy tires.

 

[Skyboss]

Is this some kind of joke?

Give it up.

 

[jarhead]

Nimtz

I fear you still don't get it. The airline business is not about you, or any pilot. What you, and others who are employees do to build your career is laudable. Great, make it the best it can be through your unions, associations, and individual effort. But, no matter how hard you try to elevate your pay, and reduce your work rules, increase your pensions, and raise your quality of life, there will always be a governor set on that engine. It can only run so fast, before the limit is reached. That limit is the market as a whole, and the prospect for success of the enterprise, that you are an employee of. Competition is that governor. I see so many airline pilots blindly rushing into the tide, thinking that they can turn it back. The LCC will be, and are the equalizers, and they will grow, because there is a market for them.

You know, I can just imagine, a hundred years or so ago, the employees of Acme Buggy Whip and Horse Shoe Company, writing letters to each other, extolling that this new fangled horseless carriage is just a flash in the pan. The public would soon tire of flat tires, getting stuck in a snowdrift, availability of gas stations. "You'll see, as soon as the next business cycle turns around, we'll be working overtime to crank out all the buggy whips the public will need"

 

[Skyboss]

You know, I can just imagine, a hundred years or so ago, the employees of Acme Buggy Whip and Horse Shoe Company, writing letters to each other, extolling that this new fangled horseless carriage is just a flash in the pan. The public would soon tire of flat tires, getting stuck in a snowdrift, availability of gas stations. "You'll see, as soon as the next business cycle turns around, we'll be working overtime to crank out all the buggy whips the public will need"

Great analogy.

 

[nimtz]

You know, I can just imagine, a hundred years or so ago, the employees of Acme Buggy Whip and Horse Shoe Company, writing letters to each other, extolling that this new fangled horseless carriage is just a flash in the pan. The public would soon tire of flat tires, getting stuck in a snowdrift, availability of gas stations. "You'll see, as soon as the next business cycle turns around, we'll be working overtime to crank out all the buggy whips the public will need"

Actually this analogy is a bit off. Yeah the automobile replaced the horse, so then you should be arguing something should be replacing air travel. Hey skyboss, jump right in here! Sorry but the LCC are not going to replace the mainlines, instead what we have is a more complicated dynamic to the competition then existed in the 80's.

A better analogy would be a new business opening up a competiting store across the street from Acme Company. Say that the competitor brings with him more efficent means of production by for example having new tools that don't wear out as quickly as Acme. So the competitor is thus able to keep his costs low and the price low. Since to the average person, every horseshoe is about the same, the competitor forces the Acme Company to change its tactics. It's not possible for Acme to simply replicate the business plan of the competition, because Acme has too much overhead already invested in his plan. Maybe the Acme owner starts offering repeat customers future horseshoes for free or whatever else.

The point is the competition forced Acme to change tactics, not simply go out of business. The mainlines staved off the LCC before through IT and yield management. While this advantage has finally been nullified after almost 15 years, it does not mean that the mainlines can't come up with another answer in the future.

I 'm not arguing that my profession's compensation and benefits need to be increased (other then in-line with inflation), I'm arguing that it doesn't have to fall just because everyone gets 'Peanut' Fares right now. Besides, if the day ever came where LCC pay was industry standard, then the next downturn every airline manager would seek 15% pay cuts from that to 'keep in line with what the market supports.'

'What the market can support' is management's favorite catch phrase during give backs, but somehow it is conviently forgotten when the company is making record profits as the majors where in the Mid 90's. As always, the speed of the governor was hidden from those who were deserving of a higher speed. This industry has survived with pilot compensation at its current levels and worker compensation had nothing to do with the current plights at American, United, and US Air. Heck even Delta has seen positive cash flows with their 'greedy, unrealistic' contract. At the same time compensation is not the biggest reason for the short-term success of Air Tran and Jet Blue. So while looking at the worst of the downturn in the rear view mirror, why then should I believe that LCC compensation is the wave of the future for this profession?

 

[Clownpilot]

OK

I am now 63 years old, and know far more than you might expect, as to the laws of economics, and how to run a business. Kind of amazing how I could do that, being an idiot, and such. However, if it makes you feel good, you certainly can reduce your argument to calling someone you never met, "an idiot" Far from irritating me, I actually get a chuckle out of your ranting.



Thank god for that. I'd hate to be the one responsible for giving you a heart attack old timer.

BTW why are you here?

Although it did ease my mind to know passengers don't have to take their chances with you.