goldentrout
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2001
- Posts
- 116
I was looking at a wall the other day...and this writing started appearing out of nowhere
"Air Tran, JetBlue and Southwest are only three of the nation's discount carriers, but they're the healthiest and fastest-growing. Southwest, the biggest discount airline, with 379 jets, is taking 42 new planes next year and more than 20 a year after that. JetBlue and AirTran are poised to double their fleets in five years. "
Actually, this is from an article in USA Today last Friday, 8 Aug.
In summary, Jet Blue plans to go from 44 to 173 planes by 2008. AirTran plans to go from 67 to 156, and SWA plans to go from 379 to 567.
Also, until a few months ago, DAL had a lock on the non-stop ATL/LAX route, with a walk up fare off $2,221. Last month, Air Tran put one of their planes on that route.
Today on Orbitz the DAL fare to go ATL/LAX is $513.
The rest of the article basically lays out how the low cost carriers are going to start serving large metropolitan areas where the majors have pretty much a monopoly and charge outrageous fares.
My hypothesis is even if DAL filled up every coach seat on it's 757
from ATL to LAX, it's overhead would still probably prevent it from making any money. My conclusion is that with flight schedule reductions at the majors, flight loads are up around 75-80%...yet the majors are still losing hundreds of millions a quarter...no where near even breaking even despite increased flight loads.
SWA/FRONTIER/JET BLUE/AIRTRAN all will have
1. Newer, more comfortable, more fuel efficient planes, with more passenger amenities.
2. Significantly lower overhead costs.
3. Routes which overlap the majors hubs out of ATL/JFK/DEN/STL etc.
4. A safe operation
Furthermore...most of the majors' pilot groups either have a scope clause or pay rates that will keep their companies from buying new mid-sized planes at a cost where they are competitive.
The whole major airline business plan is predicated on the high dollar business traveler who will make up for the $200-$300 leisure fare traveler.
Those days are gone forever.
Smarter airline executives have seen the market for low cost, safe air travel, and are making money doing it just as good at a significantly lower cost.
I imagine ALPA's strategy is to get with the MECs of the low cost carriers and have them demand outrageous pay rates in their next contract, so that the low cost carriers will have to raise their ticket prices.
After watching the UAL/US Air/DAL/AMR MECs kill their golden gooses, it would be suicidal for the AirTran or SWA MEC to demand the kind of contracts exisiting at UAL or DAL prior to 9/11....but then again greed is a powerful thing.
And I don't buy the argument that eventually all the low cost carriers will start losing money, as they compete with each other as they get more and more market share.
So what if they compete with each other? Many industries in this country have multiple companies in competition, yet making money.
The only thing that will kill the low cost airlines is if their unions demand outrageous contracts, or if they start crashing planes.
It's just a matter of time before AirTran has a jet on every route served by DAL out of ATL...then the writing on the wall will have already faded away for those who didn't see it soon enough.
I'm all fopr as much money as we can get, but what good is it to make 100-150K for three years as a 737 FO if your on the street for the next five years...assuming your comany even exists in five years.
How about 60-100K for 737 FOs, and 100-150K a year for 737 CAs, 15 day or so off a month for lineholders, with sometype of decent retirement plan (no A fund), a profit sharing program, a company matched 401K, with good medical/dental/travel benefits?
Man, now there's an original idea where an airline could probably make some money, with an overhead structure that could weather some bad times and let the employees share in the good times...maybe I'll start an airline like that.
**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**...I forget...SWA has been doing that every year for the last 20 years or so, and AirTran and Jet Blue are already making millions on that band wagon too.
The writing is on the wall (or at least in USA Today) for those who want to see the future of the US airline industry.
When will ALPA put the interest of the airline pilot profession ahead of the greed of the few at the top of the list who will destroy the rest of us at all costs to "preserve the profession." (translation "preserve our retirement").
"Air Tran, JetBlue and Southwest are only three of the nation's discount carriers, but they're the healthiest and fastest-growing. Southwest, the biggest discount airline, with 379 jets, is taking 42 new planes next year and more than 20 a year after that. JetBlue and AirTran are poised to double their fleets in five years. "
Actually, this is from an article in USA Today last Friday, 8 Aug.
In summary, Jet Blue plans to go from 44 to 173 planes by 2008. AirTran plans to go from 67 to 156, and SWA plans to go from 379 to 567.
Also, until a few months ago, DAL had a lock on the non-stop ATL/LAX route, with a walk up fare off $2,221. Last month, Air Tran put one of their planes on that route.
Today on Orbitz the DAL fare to go ATL/LAX is $513.
The rest of the article basically lays out how the low cost carriers are going to start serving large metropolitan areas where the majors have pretty much a monopoly and charge outrageous fares.
My hypothesis is even if DAL filled up every coach seat on it's 757
from ATL to LAX, it's overhead would still probably prevent it from making any money. My conclusion is that with flight schedule reductions at the majors, flight loads are up around 75-80%...yet the majors are still losing hundreds of millions a quarter...no where near even breaking even despite increased flight loads.
SWA/FRONTIER/JET BLUE/AIRTRAN all will have
1. Newer, more comfortable, more fuel efficient planes, with more passenger amenities.
2. Significantly lower overhead costs.
3. Routes which overlap the majors hubs out of ATL/JFK/DEN/STL etc.
4. A safe operation
Furthermore...most of the majors' pilot groups either have a scope clause or pay rates that will keep their companies from buying new mid-sized planes at a cost where they are competitive.
The whole major airline business plan is predicated on the high dollar business traveler who will make up for the $200-$300 leisure fare traveler.
Those days are gone forever.
Smarter airline executives have seen the market for low cost, safe air travel, and are making money doing it just as good at a significantly lower cost.
I imagine ALPA's strategy is to get with the MECs of the low cost carriers and have them demand outrageous pay rates in their next contract, so that the low cost carriers will have to raise their ticket prices.
After watching the UAL/US Air/DAL/AMR MECs kill their golden gooses, it would be suicidal for the AirTran or SWA MEC to demand the kind of contracts exisiting at UAL or DAL prior to 9/11....but then again greed is a powerful thing.
And I don't buy the argument that eventually all the low cost carriers will start losing money, as they compete with each other as they get more and more market share.
So what if they compete with each other? Many industries in this country have multiple companies in competition, yet making money.
The only thing that will kill the low cost airlines is if their unions demand outrageous contracts, or if they start crashing planes.
It's just a matter of time before AirTran has a jet on every route served by DAL out of ATL...then the writing on the wall will have already faded away for those who didn't see it soon enough.
I'm all fopr as much money as we can get, but what good is it to make 100-150K for three years as a 737 FO if your on the street for the next five years...assuming your comany even exists in five years.
How about 60-100K for 737 FOs, and 100-150K a year for 737 CAs, 15 day or so off a month for lineholders, with sometype of decent retirement plan (no A fund), a profit sharing program, a company matched 401K, with good medical/dental/travel benefits?
Man, now there's an original idea where an airline could probably make some money, with an overhead structure that could weather some bad times and let the employees share in the good times...maybe I'll start an airline like that.
**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**...I forget...SWA has been doing that every year for the last 20 years or so, and AirTran and Jet Blue are already making millions on that band wagon too.
The writing is on the wall (or at least in USA Today) for those who want to see the future of the US airline industry.
When will ALPA put the interest of the airline pilot profession ahead of the greed of the few at the top of the list who will destroy the rest of us at all costs to "preserve the profession." (translation "preserve our retirement").
